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Let us know what content you would like to see on the blog and we’ll get our excellent writers to start writing more of what you want.
Today’s ‘Sitting On The Fence’ Preview! – By Rick Elliott
Did you know that Liverpool are playing Everton tonight and the match is being shown live on BT Sport? Well there is a Merseyside Derby in the Women’s Super League and those in the know say the match looks like ending in a draw.
There is another fixture that requires comment because there is a meeting in League 1 that brings together a football club and another that has been the same club in the past! AFC Wimbledon are the team that represent that part of London more famous for tennis and they host MK Dons, the team that used to be called Wimbledon!
Confused? If so all you can do is bet on the draw at 9/4 with bet365.
So, we are sitting on the fence with regards these two standout fixtures and suggest both matches will end in a share of the points. You could throw in a draw in the match between Forest Green and Swindon in League 2 and you have a treble that pays over 45/1.
Racing at Ayr has been abandoned and animals have been seen marching down the High Street in pairs. The track’s biggest Flat meeting of the season has been totally lost to the weather so Newbury is now the principle meeting offering the most prize money.
The richest race of the day is the 4.00 and I have no second thought in tipping a horse called…..SECOND THOUGHT! This Listed race gives three-year-olds a three pound age allowance over older opponents.
Second Thought won on AW Championship Day on Good Friday and can translate that form to turf today. The horse was good enough to run in the same race as Harry Angel at Haydock in May and that is standout form in the context of the race today:
Paul Nicholls has a 33% strike rate at Newton Abbott and Sam Twiston-Davies is the leading jockey at the track since 2013/14. The first race is a match between two horses trained by Nicholls and Sam is riding Diego Du Charmil for his boss and the horse won at the Cheltenham Festival in 2016 and is the best bet of the day.
Traditionalists and the old school might not know what to make of the demise of Upton Park and White Hart Lane. For many years they were the home grounds of West Ham and Tottenham Hotspurs. Saturday’s live meeting takes place at the London (former Olympic) Stadium where the Hammers now play and Spurs have a temporary home at Wembley while their own ground is being upgraded.
This long-standing London Derby brings together teams from the east and north part of the capital and north can get the better of east because Tottenham are fancied to win this match. They are a better footballing team with a settled line-up including Harry Kane who is a proven goal scorer at this level. West Ham are average at best and home advantage at the new ground will not be enough to avoid defeat.
In assessing the likely outcome of Liverpool’s second fixture at Leicester in a week you have to get into the mind of Jurgen Klopp. The sides met in the EFL Cup on Tuesday and Klopp made 8 changes for the trip from the starting 11 that could only draw with Burnley at Anfield last weekend. The manager will revert to his best team but that may not be good enough to avoid defeat. Liverpool miss loads of chances and are susceptible at the other end.
Some of their fans are rationalising the Cup defeat by pointing out that Leicester are a decent side who won the league two years ago. However, that’s clutching at straws as the 2015-16 season was a freak when the team massively overachieved. Leicester are now a decent mid-table outfit but these are matches Liverpool should be winning if they have aspirations to win the Premier League. They can’t hit a barn door and are porous at the back which is not a title-winning recipe and Leicester can profit.
Brighton and Newcastle meet on the south coast on Sunday. This fixture brings together two of the promoted teams from the Championship last season. They earned a place in the top division by finishing first and second with Newcastle on top but only by one point. Both clubs are adjusting to the Premier League but Newcastle have more money and are getting their act together. They have won their last three league matches and that run can continue on the road this weekend.
Brighton won a match in the Premier League for the first time in their history at home to West Brom earlier this month. Since then they have lost to Bournemouth in the EFL Cup and league. Bournemouth have lost their other four matches this season and are in the bottom three. If Brighton can’t beat their coastal neighbours picking up anything against Newcastle will be tough and an away win is the prediction.
Ahead of their match at home against West Brom on Monday Arsenal could be described as the enigma of the Premier League, losing at Liverpool with something to spare and then not long after holding Chelsea at Stanford Bridge. One week Arsene Wenger is on borrowed time and the next week he’s the best thing since sliced bread. He needs some stability but the owners and senior managers seem to be making a pig’s ear of running the club. Wenger must feel massively offended about Arsenal playing on Thursday nights in the Europa League.
West Brom are West Brom and nothing much changes at a club when Tony Pulis is in charge. They already seem destined for mid-table safety having won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their first five matches, scoring 4 goals and conceding 4 goals. Pulis has never been relegated as a manager and one of his sides finished in the top half of the Premier League for the first time last season but West Brom overachieved. His sides generally don’t beat Arsenal away from home and even sharing the points in this fixture looks beyond them.
When the highlight of the football programme is a Betfred Cup match in Scotland between Motherwell and Aberdeen you know it’s a quiet day for the sport. However, there is an interesting fact that could provide a betting opportunity. Motherwell have played 11 times this season and not failed to score in any match. Aberdeen are unbeaten in domestic football which makes a correct score of one-all the standout bet:
England were head and shoulders above West Indies in the first ODI on Tuesday. The second meeting in the 5 match series takes place at Trent Bridge today. The weather forecast is not good so the match could suffer interruptions. It may become more akin to a T20 slog and that gives West Indies a fighting chance of levelling the series with three matches to play. In any case 5/2 with bet365 seems a big price especially if Chris Gayle gets his eye in and hits the ball around the ground.
Jason Day has all the right credentials for winning the Tour Championship but whether that will be enough to clinch the FedEx Cup and $10 million dollar bonus depends on the finishing position of other players. The top five in the standings can control their own destiny and a win in one equates to a win in another. Day is somewhat off the pace but tipped this week.
The Aussie player is the main tip from Golf Rater, the service with WIN that has delivered a Return On Investment of over 23% since proofing began at the start of the year. Subscribers have enjoyed a run of winners including Jordan Spieth at 16/1 in the Open Championship. You can get all the best golf bets until the end of the season at a one-off price of £14.97: CLICK HERE!
Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Justin Johnson, Marc Leishman and Jon Rahm will win the FedEx Cup if they prevail in the Tour Championship. Players below the top five require a combination of outcomes to secure the post-season trophy by winning the Tour finale. Day is 15th in the table and probably too far back to overhaul all the players above him so the massive bonus looks out of reach. Winning the Tour Championship alone would be far less lucrative but welcome all the same.
Should any of the top 5 win at East Lake this week that player will be guaranteed the FedEx Cup title. Tiger Woods is only the multiple winner to date so Spieth would be joining a very select band of players who have won the honour and bonus more than once. The Open champion at his best beats everyone else but the host course is not the best fit for his game so he may struggle. He won’t be so lucky this time as he was when finding the practice range on a crucial hole at Royal Birkdale.
The East Lake course is relatively long for a par 70. The key skills for good scoring are total driving, strokes gained putting and greens hit. Spieth showed in the final round of the Open Championship at Birkdale that his driving is not the best part of his game. East Lake will be less forgiving and is a rare course in that both driving accuracy and distance are required. A player must have a good week off the tee to contend. In fact the course provides a good all round test.
Spieth is only the second golfer in the year history of the playoffs to arrive at the Tour Championship at number one in the standings without winning any of the three post-season tournaments. Only five golfers from outside the top 30 at the end of the regular season moved into the elite group of 30 players who have qualified for the Tour Championship. Points have been reset and only those five players have the final outcome in their own hands and one should win the FedEx Cup.
Day won the USPGA Championship in 2015 and reached the pinnacle of the game. Injury and personal issues led to a loss of form but he is now looking like his old self on the course. Two poor holes cost him in the PGA Championship and BMW Championship over the last month and mental errors were expensive. Day is attuned again to contending in big events and the Tour Championship is one of the biggest. Only the best players over the full season qualify to play.
The selection scores well for the key attributes and has one of the best skill’s profiles in the field. He was ranked 49th at the end of the regular season so has overachieved more than any other player. Day has finished in the top 10 in three of his last four starts and has made the top 10 at East Lake three times in the last seven years. Driving is a major strength and he is above average for GIR and putting. Day can complete his recovery from a career blip by winning the 2017 Tour Championship.
Back next Thursday.
Enable could win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe off level weights so the fact the horse will receive an age and sex allowance from the older male horses makes her an outstanding bet at Evens with bet365.
No horse has looked like beating Enable over 12 furlongs this season and the form of the King George win has worked out well. Ulysses was very impressive in winning the Juddmonte International at York and reversing form with Enable at Chantilly is unlikely. Cracksman could be the fly in the ointment.
One of the key factors in the prospects for Enable and Cracksman is that they are both three-year-olds, trained by John Gosden. That means they will each receive 3 kg from the older horses while Enable will also get 1.5 kg as a filly. A pound equates to 0.45 kilograms so Enable will have more than 3 pounds in hand over Cracksman in the Arc. That concession can make all the difference in the last furlong.
It must be said French fillies have an excellent record in the Arc but British fillies can be past their best in the autumn. Enable has run six times this season, from April to August and that’s a long campaign racing at the highest level. Enable had a hard race on her last start in the Yorkshire Oaks and crossed the line slowly.
The horse readily beat Coronet by five lengths and that horse ran a solid race in the St Leger, fading in the closing stages through lack of stamina but still finishing just three and a quarter lengths behind the winner, Capri.
It’s difficult to pick any holes in Enable in the context of the Arc. Cracksman could be good enough to beat her with only the burden of the colt’s handicap but the favourite has the older horses covered. Highland Reel and Ulysses are held on the race’s terms.
Despite winning a key trial in France Cracksman is not a definite runner in the Arc, The owner is more inclined to put the horse away until next season but the trainer is keener to run. Gosden knows what can go wrong with horses so this year could be the window of opportunity for Cracksman to win the Arc. He has more idea than most about the relative ability of his two stable stars.
Gosden have a point about running this year because Cracksman ran a faster race than Enable at York and ended the race with plenty in the tank. In contrast Enable was slowing down in the final furlong but the race had been put to bed. Enable’s three pound fillies allowance could be crucial to the final outcome and she can win the 2017 Arc.
Can we trust managers to respect the EFL Cup? – By Rick Elliott
The money buyers and banker bettors will be out in force tonight when four good things in the EFL Cup pay over 4/5 in a multiple with bet365.
Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton and Manchester United all have home ties against teams from a lower division. However, the matches have been priced on the assumption the managers will play a strong team. The four fold looks to offer no value.
The EFL Cup is fourth in the list of priorities of teams playing in the Champions League or Europa League. The four bankers are each involved in European competition so managers may play a second string tonight.
The multiple can be boosted by backing Manchester City to win at West Brom and in their current form that is very tempting. But do we know how important the EFL Cup is to Pep Guardiola and the club’s hierarchy?
The dilemma illustrates the importance of information when betting on sport. Some club insiders may already have inkling that players may be rested for tonight’s fixtures.
Getting going on for even money for the four Premier League sides hosting inferior opponents at home looks a good bet but in reality weakened starting line-ups could make the multiple vulnerable to at least accumulator busting upset.
Titi Makfi Is Today’s Racing Banker Bet
The Flat season is now in a lull between the Doncaster St Leger meeting and the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and Champions Day at Ascot in October. Yarmouth stages the principle meeting and richest race of the day.
Titi Mafia has conditions in her favour in the John Musker Fillies’ Stakes (3.50pm) and is the standout bet of the day:
On the same card Zabeel Prince (4.55pm) has the form and ratings to prevail but bookmakers have done punters no favours by making the horse odds-on. Wealth Tax has conditions to suit today and Zabeel Prince looks vulnerable in this trappy handicap.
There is much more juice in Titi Makfi’s price and the long journey from Mark Johnston’s stable in Yorkshire to the south coast can prove to be a lucrative and rewarding trip.
The horse has won five times this season but the best effort was in defeat in a competitive handicap at York last month. Titi Makfi has improved throughout the season and that process can continue with a win at Yarmouth today.
Well who can believe the final classic of the season has been and gone with Capri winning for Aiden O’Brien and Ryan Moore meaning the jockey has now won every English classic.
I suppose on reflection Capri was the obvious choice but I did fancy Defoe who ran no sort of race and was beaten a distance. I’m sure the horse named after the ever green footballer is better than that and will prove that in the fullness of time.
Last week I moaned about the quality of midweek racing however today we have some super cards which includes a very good listed race at Sandown where I will play Howie’s Hottie. It’s a mile contest and I fancy two against the field in Dbai from the Godolphin team and Larchmount Lad who has recently been transferred from the Hannon’s to David O’Meara.
David is a dab hand of improving horses he gets from other yards and I’m sure he can do it with this one. The way I would play this race Sandown’s 3.05 is by having two win singles plus a reverse forecast.
Kryptos trainer J.Berry – He romped home at Doncaster last time and is still ahead of the handicapper.
Pipers Note trainer Ruth Carr – Unlucky in running at Doncaster yet finished strongly
Stake Acclaim trainer D.Ivory – Badly hampered when making his challenge and finished down the field. I’m sure he would have been involved with a clear run.
Guiding Stars trainer H.Wittington – Ran a good 2nd in a bumper on Monday after being off for a while and will improve for the run. Harry has said the gelding has been doing incredible things on the gallops.
Back next Wednesday be lucky.
It seems strange for an international series of 5 day matches in any format to be starting in England in the second half of September. The home side host the West Indies in 5 One day Internationals before the end of the month and West Indies are the value option to win the first meeting at Old Trafford today:
England won the recent Test series between sides but the West Indies did not select some of their best players. Only players competing in domestic cricket are considered for the tests and Chris Gayle and others play T20 in franchises around the world. He either scores a quick 50 or gets run out early but his side have enough talent in the white ball format to beat England today.
The televised match in the EFL Cup brings together Leicester and Liverpool today. Leicester are not playing in Europe and have no chance of history striking twice in the Premier League so this competition is a feasibly objective. Jurgen Klopp is obsessed with the Premier League and Champions league and could send out a second string today. In any case Leicester have been overpriced to beat Liverpool tonight.
For a Tuesday the racing is more about quantity than quality today as there are five meetings in Britain and Ireland, all on the Flat so there is no variety. The principle meeting is at Yarmouth and the feature id 3.05pm, a handicap with a small but select field. High End is well bred and has won all three starts to date. The ground and trip are unknowns but the horse has the class and form to win again today.
In golf there is a large fortune on the line in the US PGA tour finale, the Tour Championship. This event will decide the winner of the FedEx Cup and $10 million dollar bonus. Thirty elite players have qualified for the limited field tournament and any could win.
Betfairway will be highlighting the best bets! This service is still on the crest of a wave: +216.25 Points Profit for the European Masters earlier this month! You can get all the best golf bets until the end of the season for just THIRTY POUNDS!
Enjoy the cricket today – West Indies can beat England at Old Trafford!
Welcome to another to another Unity Racing Investments Horses in Focus. The aim of this column is to throw up a good few winners for our followers.
What a month it has been so far… 60.48Total Points 86.15% Return on Investment 20.00% Strike Rate All of this to 1 point stakes and actually we have had a number of side bets with our clients that have also yielded a profit.
Huge winner yesterday as HOLLY BUSY HENRY regained form and hacked up completely overlooked by the market we advised the bet at 28/1 and the sp still an impressive 25/1. We had a whisper from the stable after they took the horse and said that he was regaining form at home. We backed him first time out for the stable and he ran ok but the further drop in the weights and the extra distance including the fitting of blinkers first time made for a winning combination and we got our rewards.
The Doncaster St Leger festival also threw up some great winners including SEAHENGE advised at 16/1 returned 8/1sp and LAUGH A MINUTE advised 16/1 returned 12/1 sp as well as many other winners.
We are currently making all time new highs which after years of proofing goes to show that we still have a major edge over the market. 125 points up this year as we head for our 4th consecutive year of profit. Most of all these latest big wins have come after advertising a whole year subscription for such a low fee ensuring that these clients can now play with the bookies money. Certainly a new era of profitability for us. I am just pleased to know that after a few flat months we have delivered for our members yet again and that they are all seeing their investments grow and that’s what we are a solid proven way to grow your capital tax free.
We certainly beat any bank or investment club with this level of growth and even when we don’t move forward for a period you will not lose the shirt on your back. We are stable and consistent. Why not give us a try!
Tuesday’s Horses In Focus
Chepstow 1:40 Stakes (Class 5) 7f – GOODNIGHT GIRL sets a high standard on the clock and should be best of those with a run but the horse has been well found in the market and that makes it hard to bet for us. I quite like the chance of new comer EDGE OF THE WORLD 6/1 looks a bit of value for a horse that will be winning races for sure by the look of her and her progeny.
Chepstow 4:20 Handicap (Class 4) 12f – EARTHLY 16/1 in places looks much overpriced the horse knows where the winning line is and has run to a decent standard for the grade according to our time figures. Has to be worth an each way punt today at that price.
Chepstow 5:25 Handicap (Class 6) 16f – LAKE SHORE DRIVE is friendless in the market but this is a reasonable animal over timber and found everything happening too quick at bath. The horse should be more at home over this course and 22/1 is enticing for a small play.
Redcar 1:20 Stakes (Class 6) 5f – HEDONISM is certainly an interesting new comer for Hugo Palmer at 10/3 out of the horses that have already run on our clock BIDDY BRADY 11/2 is well clear of the rest maybe these two in a reverse forecast is the right bet to make as there isn’t much value in backing them both as singles.
Back next week with hopefully further good news and I just want to say thanks to our many loyal and new members we provide this service for you. That’s why we set up this investment club to help people on the road to a more secure financial future.
We don’t always get it right in the short term but our long term growth has been smooth and upward since we started and that makes us proud that we have helped so many.
That means that you can get a full year of my service for only £8 per month. That’s literally giving it away!
Back Next Tuesday.