I spoke last week about backing odds on favourites and filling your boots if you felt they offered value. This week then I thought I would cover the opposite end of the market. As was last weeks subject, backing outsiders can divide opinion and what holds true with backing odds on jollies the opposite is true for outsiders.
One of my colleagues concentrates on backing horses that have had a long lay off and get over-looked by the market. He does extremely well and I’ve seen him pull in some massive wins at juicy odds. He does however go through very long losing runs which is of course one of the reasons a lot of people are put off by this method.
Arguably though it is probably easier to make a long term profit from the bottom end of the market as you are opposing the masses. What I mean is that it’s difficult to find long term value at the top end as these horses can be massively over-bet. Conversely though when betting longer odds we need to have a strong constitution with the inevitable long losing runs. Did you know that if you were to concentrate on horses that where priced up at 25/1 or above you could expect (brace yourselves!) up to 135 consecutive losses in a row. So imagine trying to make a living out of that! You would at £100 stakes be potentially £13,500 worse off before you were likely to pick up a winner. Balls of steel needed for that one!!
At the top end of the market then backing odds of between 7/4 and 2/1 you’d more than likely only see a losing run of up to 12 in a row at the most. That’s a lot more like it and would appeal to most people and bank sizes 😉
So a more popular method is to combine several methods in your portfolio. Some that cover the top end of the market and others that focus on the bottom end. That way you’re getting plenty of winners and covering the losses at the bottom end of the market but when the bottom end hits you’re making a nice overall profit.
When getting involved with betting you need to be aware of these losing runs dependent on the odds and work out what will work for you. If you don’t like lots of losers then avoid anything at 10/1 or above. However if you like big priced winners then you’ll need a big bank to cope with the losing runs. If you stick to the top end of the market then expect plenty of winners and a smaller bank but keep an eye on your strike rate as if you don’t hit enough winners you’ll fail to profit!
I’ll be back next week with another look at the markets and I may even fill you in on an age old method of reading the market to your advantage.
Until then good luck with your punting and have a great week.