Last week I spoke about using timings to help us to find winners and how the speed of man has over taken the speed of the horse. I did also say that I would show you a method I use with timings but I’ve since realised that it’s a lengthy affair to write about so will postpone it for a few weeks but that will come before the end of the month.
Today then I thought I’d talk about using methods that aren’t generally available to the public. The reason we need to be looking at alternative methods of finding selections is we inadvertently end up backing value selections without actually looking for the value!
How does that work then? The market is formed throughout the day by opinions of thousands of people. The majority of those people have found their selections by simply reading the form, using common tools such as tipsters or the massively popular post data section of the Racing Post to name but a few. The media gets involved and touts a horse chance and the price collapses into a false one. Now don’t get me wrong the market is formed accurately as all these variables come together and the favourite when going off is arguably the best horse in the race.
However we need to remember that the bookie is making sure that when the favourite goes off it’s price is generally shorter than it’s true chance of winning. As a result of so many people backing that horse they need it to be to secure their long term profits. So how can we use this general knowledge to our advantage?
By going against the grain but starting with the grain in the first place! One little method that can be used is to look at the Racing Post forecast in the morning when it is first published. Now the guys that produce these tissue’s or odds guides know what they are doing and their predictions are based on sound knowledge of the form.
Have a look at the Racing Post’s forecast for a race yesterday at Lingfield:
The first three in the betting made Lujeanie, Alhoomaas and Drawnfromthepast as the market leaders. Going through each one’s form there was a case to be made for each of them.
Have a look at the results:
Drawnfromthepast won at massive odds of 14/1 despite having been predicted as a 4/1 chance! It’s worth noting these massive drifts. As the market latches onto something it’s worth noting anything that seems to have been forgotten and offers significant value. Have a go and look at these massive differences in forecasts and SP’s. There is a method there to be exploited and it’s all about going against the grain 😉
Back next week,