Following a conversation I had in my weekly visit to the local last week I thought I’d talk about backing odds on favourites in today’s article. The guy I spoke to was adamant that they held no value and he wouldn’t touch them with a barge pole as they where there to line the pockets of the bookmaker. What a load of rubbish, although I was a little more tactful than that with him 😉
It is often a divide in opinion as to whether you should back odds on jollies. I know a few people in the trade and I know a few guys who do very well by concentrating on the shorter prices. I tend to stick to the top end of the market myself! But what of the 1/2 and 1/4 shots that occur at least once a week if not more? Should we be backing them for such little returns? If you think they’re value then hell yes!
My only word of caution would be an odds on jolly in a large runner handicap. They do happen and I would be inclined to avoid them as a 1/2 shot in a 12 runner handicap would probably be worth opposing in terms of finding better value elsewhere in the field. However if it’s small field and you can’t see past the favourite then fill your boots. Just because it’s a short price doesn’t mean it isn’t value it purely means that it has a massive chance of winning.
So what’s the key to success with such short prices? It’s your strike rate you need to be looking at. There’s no point in backing 1/2 shots all the time but only getting half of your bets won. What I mean is to make backing 1/2 shots profitable you would need to be getting 7 out of 10 winners. This would equate to a profit of 5% on turnover. Not amazing but a profit is a profit and I know people that settle for 5% although they have a massive turnover. Heck I know someone that settles for a 3% profit on turnover but their turnover is 1000’s of pounds a week.
So there you have it my argument is that we can absolutely back odds on shots as long as we think it’s value and we know that we can find enough winners to make it pay.
I’ll be back next week with more about making our betting pay.