The Community Shield brings together the Premier League champions and the winners of the FA Cup. The last four teams to lift the trophy in August had won the Cup the previous May. Nine of the 19 winners of the curtain raiser to the new season were the current champions this century. Manchester City won the Premier League by 19 points and Chelsea won the Cup. Form suggests City should oblige in the Community Shield but past history gives Chelsea a chance.
A guide to the outcome of the match at Wembley on Sunday is the collateral form with Manchester United. They finished second in both competitions but got much closer to beating Chelsea in the Cup final than giving City anything to worry about in the league. Logic would make City big favourites but Chelsea could upset the form. More Cup winners have won the Community Shield than Premier League champions since 2000. Its basically the toss of a coin. Form from the previous season is just about irrelevant.
Based on outcomes this century Chelsea should be marginally odds-on to win the Community Shield and City should be about even money. In fact the London club can be backed at 11/8 to lift the trophy and that is where the value lies. Team selection and motivation are important in determining which side wins this pre-season friendly. City would take a 10 nil defeat if they knew they could defend the Premier League title they won in such devastating fashion last season. The fixture at Wembley is a warm up for the new campaign and only Jose Mourinho counts it as a title!
Winning the Premier League is about consistency over 38 matches while the FA Cup winners must come through six ties unbeaten. Over the course of the season the best team wins the League but the superpowers dominate the FA Cup and the winners are never a shock. Indeed the biggest upset in football ever was Leicester winning the Premier League. No team from outside the top division has won the FA Cup in the Premier League era. In fact only a handful of teams can win either trophy.
Manchester City have won five of the last 10 meetings, Chelsea have come out on top three times and there have been two draws. Both teams have scored in five of these fixtures and there have been more than two goals in five matches. There have been five wins to nil. All the key stats suggest there is an even chance of the key outcomes on Sunday. City beat Chelsea 1-0 in both Premier League meetings last season. There has been a definite outcome in the last seven fixtures.
City have won the Premier League three times in the last six seasons. Previously they won the Community Shield once as the champions but also lost one match as the top dogs in England. Chelsea won the Community Shield in 2000, 2005 and 2009, but only once as the league champions and twice after winning the FA Cup. So basically, there are no definite trends and the Community Shield is about which team turns up on the day and are motivated and Chelsea could have the edge.
Both teams will be weakened by absentees because players returning from the World Cup were given extra leave of absence. Pep Guardiola is now established as the City manager and Chelsea have a new man in charge in Maurizio Sarri. The outcome of the Community Shield will not matter much to Guardiola while the Chelsea players will want to impress the manager. That scenario could make Chelsea more determined to win the Community Shield so they are tipped to lift the trophy.