One of the first things to look into is, is the favourite worth opposing?
I know a few professionals that focus on the favourites or the top end of the market and do well but they need a massive turn over for a shorter return on investment. The shorter your prices the bigger your strike rate needs to be and the smaller your ROI will be.
However, by moving away from the top end of the market your strike rate will be lower but you can get a much bigger ROI. This is where I focus my attention. I look for races that look to have a weak favourite and then work my way through the card until I find something that looks to have a chance.
Once I have a shortlist of contenders that look likely to have a chance of beating the favourite, I go about pricing up the race. If my selections are bigger in the market than the price I have on my tissue then I have a value selection. Once I’ve also pulled out the selections from my database that runs all of my systems and there is one that corresponds with my original selections then I know I have a strong selection that also offers value.
So that’s how I do it but what can you do to copy my method?
Follow a few simple steps and if you have time go through all my previous articles and learn as much as you can but in the meantime let’s outline these few simple steps.
1. Pick out all the handicap races from a day’s racing.
2. Look at the favourites and go through the form. Do they really look to be a justified favourite? It might be that the horse is from a big yard and the market has over-hyped it?
3. Once you have found a favourite with holes in it and looks to be worth opposing, then start to work your way through the betting forecast and find a horse that looks like it has either a good chance of beating the favourite or at least placing at a decent price.
4. Go through as many betting forecasts as you can from the Sporting Life, Racing Post through to Timeform and Betfair. Take an average price (this is a very simple way of gauging the horse’s price) from these forecasts and if from your selections from step 3 you can get a bigger price then you are on the right road to finding value bets.
5. Paper trade this angle and keep a record of the bets that you find and see how you do. If you’re making a loss and the favourites are winning then go back through the method until you’ve grasped the right angle.