Today I wanted to go through a very simple strategy that enables you to create your own basic football tissue (or odds line).
By heading to this page here we can see all of the results of Liverpool v Man Utd who are playing on Saturday 14th October –
http://www.soccerbase.com/teams/head_to_head.sd?team_id=1563&team2_id=1724
At the top, you’ll see these stats –
To create a tissue we need to add the total number of games they’ve played between them. In this case, it would be 198 games.
So to create our odds we need to do the following –
Liverpool Wins = 65
65/198 = 0.3283 * 100 = 32.83%
This is the percentage chance of Liverpool to win if history repeats itself. To turn this into odds we divide this percentage into 100 which comes to 3.05 (or near enough to 2/1).
We repeat the same math for the draw and Man Utd.
Draw = 3.67 (between 5/2 and 11/4)
Man Utd = 2.5 (6/4)
I have built one of my excel calculators which you can download here –
Free Calculator For Pricing Up Your Own Football Games
This is what it looks like –
You simply fill in the yellow boxes and the red boxes will automatically update themselves with your odds.
Now, this is obviously a very simplistic model but it’s the foundations of building a tissue which professionals use every day to calculate their value and make long-term profits.
We can build on this by adding in either our own knowledge or researching media outlets.
For example, if you have three positive factors for Liverpool and three negatives for Man Utd you would do the following –
We have 6 more factors which we add to the games played section on the excel sheet. The more you come up with the more accurate your tissue will become.
So we add the 6 factors to get 149 and add 3 to the 62 for Liverpool (as these are positives) and take 3 away from Man Utd (as these were negatives).
We now have altered figures like this –
So we need to add as much information as we can to get a more accurate tissue.
Looking at the excel sheet above we now have the following odds –
Liverpool – 2/1
Draw – 11/4
Man Utd – 13/8
Looking at the market, below –
Looking at the odds we can see the best prices available, are –
Liverpool – 2.7 (our odds line is 3, so no value)
Draw – 3.52 (our odds line is 3.77, so no value)
Man Utd – 2.8 (our odds line is 2.68, so we have VALUE)
You can see that the prices we have created are very close to the market, which is a good thing as we’re up there with the experts, in their opinion. However, we can see that we’ve got a slight edge with Man Utd and this would be our bet.
To put this into context, had we backed Man Utd at the current odds of 2.8 and bet over the 198 games that they’ve played we would have won 39.9% of our games.
Our outlay would have been, to £1 stakes, £198. We would have won 79 of our bets which we multiply by 2.8. This would give us a return of £221.20 and a profit of £23.20p. Or, an 11.72% return on turnover.
I appreciate that we wouldn’t always get those odds and this is a very basic example but the more information and knowledge that you have with the beautiful game, remove your emotions, the more you can profit from your betting.
Next week, I will be looking at how we can use the same stats to look at betting on the over/under 2.5 goals market, with some great results!
As, always if you have any further questions or comments, then leave a comment and we’ll get back to you.
If you want someone to do the hard work for you, then check out the banner below. More than 540 points profit –
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