The DP World Tour Championship is a lucrative tournament in its own right but also features the subplot of deciding the Race to Dubai. The odds to win what was formerly known as the money list indicate only Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose and Sergio Garcia can win the race and no other player can prevail. Rose is the selection to win this week’s tournament and the Race to Dubai. He is reliant on others and only Fleetwood has his destiny in his own hands.
Rose is the main tip from the Golf Rater service on WIN. The tipster advised three players for the HSBC-Champions three weeks ago they finished first, second and third. The tips included Justin Rose who delivered at 20/1. Subscribers have enjoyed a run of winners including Jordan Spieth at 16/1 in the Open Championship. You can get all the best golf bets until the end of the season for just £14.99: CLICK HERE!
The Race to Dubai takes in 47 tournaments in 26 countries over four continents. It is the season-long competition that identifies the number one player on the European Tour. The concept is the old Order of Merit and points are accumulated based on prize money won. The top 10 players in the rankings after this week’s event will share the $5 million Race to Dubai bonus pool. The race will be decided in Dubai this week and Fleetwood, Garcia and Rose are the only realistic contenders. It would be fitting if all three were in contention over the back nine on Saturday and it would be a true shootout for honour and glory.
Fleetwood needs to equal or better Rose’s finishing position to clinch the title. If Rose doesn’t finish in the top 5 and Garcia doesn’t win Fleetwood wins the Race to Dubai. If Fleetwood doesn’t win second place alone would make Rose European number one. Garcia must win and hope Fleetwood finishes outside the top 20 and Rose finishes below sole fourth to win the Race to Dubai. Any player in the top 45 of the current standings can make the top 10. Rory McIlroy and Henrik Stenson are not playing and they are 11th and 15th respectively.
The European Tour website has crunched the numbers and revealed these chances of each player winning: Fleetwood 73%, Rose 24% and Garcia 3%. These numbers equate closely to the bookmakers odds which suggest Rose is about 11/4 to prevail which corresponds to 27% or slightly better than one in four. Garcia’s has a one in 33 chance of winning according the Tour and bookies rate him at 28/1 chance. In both measures Fleetwood is a massive favourite but Rose can overhaul him.
This week’s season finale is being played at the Jumeirah Golf Estates course in the United Aran Emirates. This is the eighth renewal and the course has staged each of those events. McIlroy and Stenson are both dual winners and the other former champions are Lee Westwood, Robert Karlsson, Alvaro Quiros and Matthew Fitzpatrick, the defending champion. Karlsson and Quiros are absent this time but Westwood and Fitzpatrick can make the top ten bonus payout places.
At almost 7,700 yards in length and with a par of 72 the course is above average in length. The key skills for good scoring are driving distance, greens in regulation and putts per greens hit in the correct number of shots. In fact the course requires a player to have a good all round game to contend. The average winning score over the last eight years is about 20 under which equates to level 67s over four rounds. There has been one playoff in that spell and winning margins of from 1 to 6 shots.
Rose was well off the pace before winning his last two starts. The Olympic champion has targeted the Race to Dubai over the last month and can now be Europe’s top player for the first time. Fleetwood seems to be scrambling over the line but could miss out. Rose has the game and experience to get the job done which means he is the best bet to win the 2017 DP World Tour Championship and Race to Dubai.