Do you back horses on the Flat in Ireland? Do you take into account the draw your horse has? Were you aware that the draw can affect the chance that your horse has of winning?
I will try to deal with courses and distances that have a bias and if I don’t mention a track or distance it is because there is normally no bias.
The Curragh has a slight bias to high drawn horses over 7, 8, and 10 furlong trips. In general this is a very fair course with sprint distances seemingly has no bias.
On the all weather at Dundalk middle to low drawn horses seem to have an advantage and approximately 50 per cent of winners in handicaps over six furlongs have been won by the bottom third in the draw when 10 plus runners. Over a mile there seems slight favour in a low draw. The remaining distances, including 7 furlongs, seem to have little bias.
Gowran Park is a very fair track but over 7 furlongs on soft ground a high draw seems an advantage but on firm ground it’s a low draw that appears better.
Down Royal has a favour in sprints for middle to high draw. This is no surprise though as the highest draw is next to the rail. The 5 furlong trip turns sharply right two furlongs out this further advances the high draw bias. Over 7 furlongs the middle to high draw is again favourable.
Fairyhouse has a bias on softer ground in 6 and 7 furlong races where a high draw is most important. Over 9 and 10 furlongs there is a bias towards high drawn numbers and the low drawn horses struggle to join the party at Fairyhouse.
Ballinrobe has an advantage to high drawn horses over 5,6 and 7 furlongs.
Bellewstown has an interesting stall bias requiring usually a middle to high draw in sprints but a low draw over a mile. It is very interesting that the horse drawn in stall one over a mile in 10 plus runner handicaps have won 6 of 16 races here in recent seasons.
Cork has no bias in its sprint distance races but over 7 furlongs you need a high draw and results show this to be a very strong bias. Horses drawn in stalls 1 – 4 seem to have very poor results. Low drawn horses also struggle over 8 and 10 furlong trips where a middle to high draw has a definite advantage.
Galway seems to stage a lot of races over 7 furlongs and it is shown a high draw seems essential. The bias seems to even out over 8 furlongs yet low drawn horses seem to struggle over 12 furlongs at Galway.
The courses mentioned today seem to have the most interesting of bias to draw in Ireland. Courses not mentioned seem to have little bias overall.
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