I think a lot people have got new phones for Christmas or have too much time on their hands as I seem to have to got into a few ‘debates’ on Social Media recently particularly over All-Weather v National hunt racing. Yes we’ve had high profile meetings at Kempton, Chepstow & Leopardstown with some cracking races; although some not so, seeing horses stagger home exhausted is not a great spectacle but my main reason for preferring the AW is profit!
It’s a specialist sport, I know the form inside out and what sires do well on it, so I have an edge over other punters and odds compliers. With jump racing the form is very well established, everyone knows what conditions suit the horses best, you even know when trainers are going to hit form, the likes of Hobbs & Twisten-Davies get them ready for the autumn, Henderson prefers the spring, although I don’t think anyone could figure out V Williams stable! But with all that information I don’t think you have an edge with NH racing. To win at this game you need to information other punters don’t have.
I also got a message for an eagle-eyed follower of my hotlist noting two of my hotlist horses were in the same race at Wolverhampton on Saturday and what one should he bet. I had them on my tissue both at just under 2/1 with the rest little chance. Amazingly the first show was 5/6 & 4/1, to me it was a no brainer we had to lump on the 4s. The race worked out to perfection, with them both pulling clear and our pick winning. I have to admit we got lucky as if the odds had been reversed I would have went for the other one.
DON’T TAKE ANY PRICE
After analysing a race, you have made your decision, you’ll back what you think will be the winner of a race, take any price, a winner is a winner. DON’T! Each horse’s true chance in a race cannot be scientifically verified. But you should be more disciplined, calculate a price you are prepared to take and don’t take anything less.
You always hear people talking about value, but to me there is no way of calculating value. Value is a matter of personal opinion. A crude method of calculating the odds you are prepared to take is to list all the potential rivals to your selection in the race. If there are only two look for approximately 3/1, if there are six look for 8s. You will soon develop your own method and become good at forecast odds.
Only two new AW hotlist entries this week: MR BOSSY BOOTS & STARFIELD.
The year is nearly over and I will show my 17th profit in 18 calendar years. I do this by having eight or nine selective bets per week, I’ll never land massive one day wins but if it’s steady long term profit you want then I’m your man.
A Free Tip From The Shrewd Tipster
2:20 Lingfield – Beach Bar – Win Bet 7/4 (bet365)
Until next Tuesday, I wish you a good New Year & Happy Punting!
Back next Tuesday.
The Shrewd Tipster