Nice winner in last week’s horses in focus going off at a crazy price EDGAR ALLEN POE ended up with an SP of 15/2 and that was enough to ensure a profit for the day. A staggering SP the horse’s chance was there for all to see.
Here is what we said. ‘230 EDGAR ALLEN POE has improved in two starts and is beginning to look a decent type if the rate of improvement continues he should be bang there at the business end today. 11/2 looks a very nice price to me. I would have thought 3/1 was generous.’
I really did mean that as well I was expecting 3/1 from our pricing (we price up every horse blind to what the bookies have done this way we are not biased against a horse that has drifted and allows us to try and work out our own probability of the horse winning). To get that return SP was huge.
Tuesday’s Horses In Focus.
Brighton 6:15 Handicap (Class 6) 6f – COOPERESS 9/1 is slightly over priced, I remember the start of the season she was doing well at home and they thought that she might progress this year as she was a little weak as a 3yo. Well she hasn’t done well at all but this race is weak and the drop back to 6 may help as well as a bit of rain that should fall that would be my choice here.
Brighton 6:45 Handicap (Class 5) 7f – CHARACTERIZED is the pick for us at the top of the market but ONE BIG SURPRISE does come a really close 2nd. Both horses have great chances enhanced by a non runner The stalking Moon so maybe the right bet here is the reverse forecast with a chunk on CHARACTERIZED at 5/2.
Brighton 7:15 Handicap (Class 4) 12f – HEPPLEWHITE 8/1 in places is the value pick of the race. Ran a decent speed figure last time out and is from a stable who are coming into form. The price is decent and we could do well at Brighton tonight.
Brighton 7:45 Handicap (Class 6) 8f – JACK BLAINE 15/2 with bet365 must have a decent chance here yet the weather may not do him any favours. It was the same race at Wetherby that EDGAR ALEN POE came out of and hacked up and JACK finished ahead of him. Another horse to take from that race is KELPIE SPIRIT who may like the conditions and is a big price 14/1 and drifting. I certainly won’t be put off I think that Wetherby race is going to work out very strong form for the grade.
Pontefract 2:10 Handicap (Class 4) 6f – It’s nice to see JED O KEEFFE firing in some winners again after a few bad seasons and a ton of problems but they have really turned it around this year. Their horse COLLINGHAM PARK would make a decent bet and 7/2 looks quite big. The horse has improved on every run according to the ratings. Another to watch out for would be NOBEL MANNERS 8/1 looks a little overpriced.
Pontefract 2:40 – BAY STATION looks a big price at 8/1 he posted a decent rating last race and may go close here. The two at the top are dominating the early betting but it’s the DAPPER MAN that comes 2nd on our ratings.
Pontefract 3:40 Handicap (Class 3) 6f – MISHAAL 20/1 is much overpriced on the back of a poor show this year but skip back a year around this time you find a very different prospect. I think the horse will be somewhere near at the end. 20/1 is well worth the risk of looking silly. Even if the ground isn’t ideal.
Pontefract 4:10 Maiden (Class 5) 10f – BROADWAY DREAMS 3/1 is our Ponte Nap I think the horse will go really close today the rating he posted last race was well above any of these and with sds riding he is in very capable hands.
Pontefract 4:40 Handicap (Class 5) 8f – EDGAR ALLEN POE won with some authority last week and may well go in again today. 3/1 looks worth a small punt even though this race is harder. On our ratings KILBANA LADY has improved with every run and rates the main danger at 8/1 is well over priced.
Wolverhampton 1:55 Handicap (Class 6) 6f – BINGO GEORGE at 10/1 is just about a big enough price to get involved it’s a tough race but connections feel they will go close today and connections money will be down.
Back Next Tuesday.