Yesterday’s report was really decent with so many horses running good races and bagging me quite a few place parts of the accumulators I put on and I had darna and vautour in an e/w Trixie with grand vision.
Darna has really turned our Cheltenham around and our account too I backed the horse twice once on the account and again from my separate Cheltenham pool so it turned out pretty well. Of the others the negatives didn’t win which was good to see but all in all very pleasing.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Day.
PEACE AND CO is very strong at the top of the market despite appearing short at around 11/4 the market has it down as a small amount of value (which is surprising). There is a bit of resistance in HARGAM yet BELTOR is too short. That can’t be said for TOP NOTCH who the market also likes and I also like but only as an each way bet I prefer it to HARGAM and of the 5th and 6th favs. The market prefer DICOSIMO over PETITE PARISIENNE make of that what you will? I think it has to be –
PEACE AND CO 0.5 win @ 11/4 ladbrokes
TOP NOTCH 0.5points e/w @ 8/1 betfred
Right now these look very credible options. On a real tough day
The market is telling us that there are a number of fancied horses for this race the list in no order is –
QUICK JACK @ 13/2bet 365
PRINCELY CONN 11/1 betfred
SORT IT OUT 12/1betfred
CHELTENIAN 18/1 paddy power
The favourite looks poor value so I would have to eliminate that one its got a go broke profile whereas PRINCELY CONN and SORT IT OUT look very interesting and there has been enough on CHELENIAN to warrant a smaller play
I would stake PRINCELY CONN 1 point e/w and SORT IT OUT 0.5 points each with a 0.5 point e/w bet on CHELTENIAN
BLACK HERCULES is pretty strong at the top of the market but there are others being backed. This race is going to be a real tough nut to crack. There is a little support for NO MORE HEROS whereas MARTELLO TOWER is quite weak. VALUE AT RISK is interesting and the market certainly gives it an e/w chance. At a fair price too
Of the bigger prices there has been a little interest in both ARBRE DE VIE @ 20/1 ladbrokes and TEA FOR TWO @ 28/1 paddy power.
VALUE AT RISK looks the solid e/w option 0.5 points I may just throw a few quid around on the others mentioned but nothing crazy.
As much I really want ROAD TO RICHES to win or rather think noel meade deserves to win a race like this from a market perspective the horse isn’t without a chance. Yet there does seam to be significant strength in others.
DJAKADAM is the most interesting and looks well fancied by the market @ around 7/1 I think it could be an e/w bet to nothing MANY CLOUDS also strong @ 8/1 while SILVINIARCO CONTI has drifted a little from its opening price and would have to be a slight negative. CONEYGREE has some fair support yet the market is telling me that CARLIGFORD LOUGH should be taken very seriously .HOLY WELL has drifted and that’s not good to see at this stage. ROAD TO RICHES is firm but not screaming back me of the others only 2 other interesting horses are SAM WINNER and HOUBLON DES OBEAUX at 50/1.
Not sure what I am going to back but definitely MANY CLOUDS,DJAKADAM and CARLINGFORD LOUGH would be highest on the list.
We have a strong favourite here with PAINT THE CLOUDS @ 9/2 So much so that we have to bet this horse not sure what the bet should be as the market also says we should consider a horse at a bigger price in CARSONSTOWN BOY @ 14/1 I think probably be sensible to go.
1 point win PAINT THE CLOUDS @ 9/2 bet 365
And 0.5 e/w CARSONSTOWN BOY 14/1 bet 365
The market definitely wants one of the top 5 in the betting to win this race which one there are no clues which is then what makes me think it either going to be a close finish between one of these 5 or that maybe there are no clues available because the market is destined to get this race wrong and one at a price will come in who knows ?
We have another strong favourite here in NED BUNTLINE @ 9/2 bet 365n it’s a very similar market profile to PAINT THE CLOUDS that we back earlier so it simply has to be bet the other 2 of market interest are GRUMETI @ 20/1 ladbrokes and BLOOD COTIL 9/1 will hill which both look like solid e/w alternatives I think I would stake it
0.5 points e/w NED BUNTLINE
0.5 point e/w GRUMETI
0.5win BLOOD COTIL.