I spoke last week of bank sizing and getting this right. This week I thought I’d talk about beating the SP and you may have heard a few tipsters/experts mentioning this quite often. I may have actually written about this before but its importance is so significant it’s worth mentioning again.
When we look at the returning SP of a horse when we look at the results it is one of the most accurate ways of seeing a horses true chance of winning that race. For example if you were to look at a set of results for a race and where looking at the price bracket of 2/1 then you would actually see that about one in three times or 33.33% of the time. If you took a hundred races of similar distance and class and looked for 9/1 chances over a 100 races you would see about 10 winners. The other 90 races would be filled up with other priced winners but you see my point, the odds reflect the amount of times the horse will win over a 100 races. This is the whole point of odds. If you bet the horse in a particular circumstance how many times would it win out of those 100 races? The SP is pretty clever in getting that right.
This is why it’s so important to get the bigger odds when betting your selections. I’ll attempt to explain why:
It’s the old toss of a coin again I’m afraid! Yes some of you older readers may have heard me go on about this before but here it is again!
If someone offered you a bet on the toss of a coin in an ideal world it would be even money about whether it be heads or tails right? Yes of course, it’s a 50% chance that the coin will land on either heads or tails. Well at even money then you would receive £2 back every time you got it right. Of course you would end up break even. If however you were able to obtain 11/10 about the chances of heads? Personally I’d lump on all day long over a hundred bets because I’d be certain to make a profit. Like the accuracy of the SP we know that a coin toss has a certain 50% chance of landing either or so the 11/10 offers value as that would show a 5% return on investment.
Next week I’m going to show you a little way of determining the average odds of a horse and working out if it has value or not and how with a little effort you can also beat the SP. Of course in the mean time if you want it all done for you then the value if there in my service Value At The Races and we still top the all time leader board. I’ve been tipping everyday for two years now and we’ve managed to come out on top overall! Good going I’d say and long may it continue, I’ve been doing it long enough 😉
I’ll be back next week with a little system and more thoughts on the betting world.