I spoke last week of how we should have a separate betting bank for when tackling the festivals. Festivals have to be viewed differently to our normal betting so it makes perfect sense to have separate money in which to play them. This week I thought I’d talk about betting banks in general and how best to use them.
The first thing we need to asses is how many angles, tipsters or methods we are using in our betting. Let’s imagine that we are using three good tipsters as our only approach to betting. Using these tipsters average strike rates and recommended banks we can ascertain what we need as our starting capitol.
We’ll break it down as follows:
Tipster 1 recommends a starting bank of 500 points and has an average strike rate of 25%
Tipster 2 recommends a starting bank of 300 points and has an average strike rate of 35%
Tipster 3 recommends a starting bank of 150 points and has an average strike rate of 25%
That’s a total of 950 points but why do I mention the strike rates? By looking at the table below we can see how many losing bets in a row we could expect from each tipster.
Assuming that most tipsters will have strike rates varying from 15% to 35% see below for the expected losing streaks using probability:
15% strike rate/ 43 losing bets
20% strike rate/ 31 losing bets
25% strike rate/ 24 losing bets
30% strike rate/ 19 losing bets
35% strike rate/ 16 losing bets
Now based on probability these losing runs can occur but they are actually very rare and remember that the odds by which the tipster advises should more than cover the losing bets.
So we have all the information but how do we best use it?
Well the points system in betting is to obviously keep each person’s actual betting sizes private. So we have tipster 1 who advises a 500 point bank with a 25% strike rate. What we do now is set aside a bank for this tipster and divide 500 by 2 (this is to cover up to 2 possible worst case scenarios of 2 losing runs) which gives us 250 points. We now take this 250 and divide it by 24 (the possible amount of losing bets in a row) to give us (rounded down) £10 per bet. We now know that we need £500 for the first tipster and will have enough money to see out any losing runs and still have money to carry betting when they hit a winning streak.
Value At The Races is still all time leader of the WIN’s best performers and consistently maintains its 25% strike rate and has made over 1300 points profit in the last 2 years.
See you next week with more advice on making your betting pay.