I thought I’d talk about different bets today and explain why I only ever do singles. There are literally hundred’s of different bets available to punters from the simple e/w to the more complicated permutations that comes from forecast multiples etc. What do they all mean and how should we be looking at them.
I’ll start with the treble as an example. You have 10 quid in your pocket and fancy three horses throughout an afternoons racing. Well rather than having £3.33p on each one you decide to have a £10 treble. The first horse wins at let’s say 4/1. You’ve now in a sense got £50 to your name. You obviously haven’t because the bookie keeps it for you. The second horse now wins at 4/1 again. That’s now £250 in your pocket. Of course it isn’t it’s in the bookies. Now here is the clincher for me anyway. The next horse you fancied let’s say it’s 4/1 again needs to win for a whopping £1250. Now think to yourself would you realistically have £250 on a horse? Is that your average stake size? It’s a lot of money to be betting on one horse if your average stake is simply £10! Also when you break down the probability of landing the treble with three 4/1 shots it has a 0.8% chance of happening. Yes you read that right, it’s less than 1% likely to happen! Even getting the double in has a 4% chance of happening! This is why a bookie loves these types of bets, you literally have little chance of winning them!
Now I know it’s not as exciting but let’s use the above scenario again. You have £10 on the first horse and it wins you’re now £40 in profit. Next another £10 on the next and it wins you’re now £80 up. The third and you’ll be £120 better off. Now I know it’s not as good as £1250 BUT for every time you place that bet you are giving yourself a 20% chance of winning every time or a 1 in 4 chance of making a profit. I’m sure you’ll agree those are much better odds and you’ll be winning more often than you would with all these multiple bets.
That’s it for me this week, MATR continues to smash in the profits for his members and this month no matter what happens my members will be guaranteed another winning month. That will be 14 out of 14 months in a row, pretty impressive!