I spoke last week of beating the SP and the benefits of this. This week I wanted to talk about whether we should follow a gamble and the disadvantages of this. I often get asked about following a gamble and should we jump on board. The question is usually NO!
The problem with finding a horse that has steamed in the market is by the time the horse has been gambled on you are missing out on the bigger price that would make it profitable in the long run. The people that have organised these gambles are betting to the odds that the bookmaker has made a mistake on. They know that the horses true chances of winning are way better than the odds suggest. They then plough their money into the market, this obviously reduces the odds and nine times out of ten, people see this tumble, assume it’s a good thing and start to follow the money themselves. The horse may not win due to various circumstances but the people in the know don’t mind because they have gained the value in the price and in the long run they will turn a profit.
So how can we get on these before they happen? It is difficult but it is possible with a bit of legwork and always the night before. Have a look at the list below to some of the points you need to look at in order to get on early!
1. Has the horse been stepped up or down in trip and looks to be at a preferred distance.
2. Has the horse been running on ground it doesn’t like and now it’s running on ground it does.
3. Is there a better jockey on board than previous runs or a jockey that has chosen to ride this horse rather than another.
4. Is it running at a different way round track than last time. Try to see if a horse is running at a preferred track as well.
Looking at the above in more detail can help you determine if a horse has a better chance than one would assume at first glance. The bookie will usually price early bird prices on the bare form but as people who do their homework the night before analyse the form in a little more detail they can find prices that are bigger than they should be about a horses real chance.
Have a go yourself the night before and look for some of the above factors. Make a note of any horses you think have a chance and then make a note of the price. Have a look again the next day and see if the horse has shortened in the market. You never know once you’ve mastered it you could be finding the gamble before it happens and be on the road to making bigger profits 😉
I’ll be back next week with more betting insights, until then happy punting and have a good week.