In order to profit from racing you have to back winners, but not just any old winners they have to be value winners.
The problem we have here is that what is value ?
One punters idea of value may be completely different to that of another. One may say that a favourite at 11/8 is value because it should be an even money favourite, but the next punter may say there is no value until it’s 2/1, that said if the price was even money and you obtained any of those two prices I would say that you are getting some sort of value but again it’s every man’s own opinion on how much value they want in a bet.
So how do we know if we are getting value or not ?
One way to come to that conclusion would be to price up a race yourself and compare your odds to that of the early prices of the enemy. So in effect you are creating an odds line or a tissue ( whichever you want to call it). By doing this you will quickly be able to identify the value bets in the race , so if you have priced a horse at say 3/1 and it’s 6/1 in the betting you have yourself a value bet and if vice versa then you have no value.
This isn’t for everybody as it can be time consuming until you have managed to get it down to a nice simplistic method.
Again you will all have your very own ways of doing this, but we do have all the tools we need on the internet to find the information that we would want to use to create the said odds line.
Firstly you need to decide what type of races you want to look at because even for a seasoned punter going through a whole days cards would be a very laborious task indeed. You then need to decide what are the most important factors that you think will decide the outcome of the race.
• Wins/runs over the distance
• Wins/runs in class
And you would then need to assign a figure to each to produce a rating figure for each of the runners in the race. For argument sake I will use the above and assign a number between 1 & 5 for each.
You then need to total up all the ratings and then divide each horses rating by the total which will give you the horses probability from which we can then convert this probability into odds which we can then compare to the bookies odds and decide if we have found a value bet or not.
Ok I’m going to use the 16:00 Newbury which is a Class 4 handicap for 4yo+ run over 1 mile and see if we can find any value (which may or may not happen)
So we have 9 runners and I will give them all a rating just by using the criteria set out earlier, ( the criteria are just for this example)but as I said before you can use whatever you like too determine the ratings and it’s what you are comfortable with.
I won’t go through every process as this would end up to long an article but I will be assessing each runner according to wins over the distance going class and competitive weights.
All the information I need for that can be found on time form –
So here you can click on each of the drop down boxes and get the info on distance and going and I would also have this screen on the Racing post website open to find out the weight and class info that I need –
Ok now you know where to find the information I will assign the rating to each horse.
1. Mister Musicmaster =12
2. Hatsaway = 2
3. Star Links = 3
4. Lady Sylvia = 4
5. Tatting = 3
6. Gracious George = 2
7. Berkeley Vale = 8
8. Rafaar = 2
9. Hector’s Chance = 2
So we have a total of 38 which is now used to get the horses probability of winning.
1. 12/38 = 0.316 = 31.6%
2. 2/38 = 0.052 = 5.2%
3. 3/38 = 0.078 = 7.8%
4. 4/38 = 0.105 = 10.5%
5. 3/38 = 0.078 = 7.8%
6. 2/38 = 0.052 = 5.3%
7. 8/38 = 0.211 = 21.1%
8. 2/38 = 0.052 = 5.2%
9. 2/38 = 0.052 = 5.2%
Now we have the probability chance of each horse to we can now convert that into odds and compare with the early odds of the bookies… I will randomly use Bet 365 . I will put my odds first then the enemies,
1. Mister Musicmaster @ 11/10 …6/1
2. Hatsaway @ 18/1…8/1
3. Star Links @ 12/1…12/1
4. Lady Sylvia @ 8/1…7/1
5. Tatting @ 12/1…14/1
6. Gracious George @ 18/1…10/1
7. Berkeley Vale @ 7/2…9/4
8. Rafaar @ 18/1…8/1
9. Hector’s Choice @ 18/1…6/1
As you can see from the above we have some massive value with Mister Musicmaster and I would say that would be the value bet of the race. Also with Star Links, Lady Sylvia, Tatting and Berkeley Vale we are in a similar ball park and with the others there is a marked difference of opinion with my odds and the early prices with Bet 365.
As you can see even with a simple criteria we can get quite a good idea of the probability of a horses chances in a race and we have gotten quite similar odds through the card and with practise and your own criteria you could well be on the way to achieving good tissue’s and seeking out the value in a race. As always there may be other factors that contribute, as in improvement, drop in class , runs that a horse has had etc…etc…but it is very much a trial and error procedure until you are comfortable with what works for you…
I hope I have given you food for thought and maybe an incline for you to maybe have a play about and see how you fair.
As always if you have any questions just shout.