I often get asked “is it worthwhile following a gamble?”
The answer in most cases is “No”!
The problem with finding a horse that has steamed in the market is by the time the horse has been gambled on you are missing out on the bigger price that would make it profitable in the long run.
The secret to profiting from steamers is to try and predict them before the gamble starts. This is a much better way of profiting from the gamble than just following it blind. So how do we do this?
I’ll start by looking at the cards the night before. Have a look at handicap races first. Here are a few pointers that I look at before making a decision.
1. Has the horse been stepped up or down in trip
2. Has the horse been running on ground it doesn’t like
3. Is there a better jockey on board than previous runs
4. Is it running at a different way round track than last time
The points above are things we need to consider when looking at a race the night before. It is common practice for a trainer to enter its horse under conditions that might not suit its running style so although always trying it might not be under optimum conditions and therefore get its handicap mark lowered. All of a sudden it’s then entered into a race that meets the horse’s optimum conditions and there you have your likely gamble!
When I have found such a contender I will back it with a BOG bookie the night before and then if there is no such gamble I can usually lay it off on Betfair for a small loss or break even. If it’s a massive gamble then I sometimes lay it off anyway for a free bet.
Have a play around the night before. Look for horses that have dropped down in trip and have a better handicap mark. With a pen and a paper, jot down the price available the night before and on the following day see if they have shortened up in price. Once you have the knack of it you’ll start to find many trading opportunities or quite simply over-priced horses that you’ve backed at value!
Back next week with more tips and an update on where we should be on the professional punting.