Here we are just a few days away from the official start of the flat season and it all kicks off at Doncaster on Saturday at 13:25 with the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes for 2 year olds but as the title suggests I’m going to have a look at the Lincoln.
Since 1855 The Lincoln has been run over 1 mile and is for four year olds and above. Previous to this it has been run over 2 miles and also 1 ½ miles and up until 1964 was held at Lincoln Race Course before moving to Doncaster in 1965 when the former venue was closed.
In the last ten years the race has been won by 4 – 6 year olds
• 4 yo’s 4 times
• 5 yo’s 3 times
• 6 yo’s 3 times
7 and 8 yo’s haven’t fared well in the last 10 years but the field is normally dominated by 4 – 6 year olds with nearly 80% of the runners being from this age group.
8 of the last 10 winners have been rated between 95 – 104.
• 99+ 2 wins
• 90 – 98 8wins
Any thing below that hasn’t made the grade in the last 10 years either.
9 of the last 10 winners have been weighted between 8-9 and 9-4
• 9-1+ 2 wins
• 8-9 to 9-0 5 wins
• 8-8 or less 1 win
The top weight hasn’t won this race in the last 10 years and has only placed twice.
In the last 10 years 8 out of the 10 winners has come from have come from horses stepping up from 7 furlongs or running again over 1 mile. Bar that the other 2 stepped down from 11 and 10 furlongs.
Days Since Last Run
Again in the last 10 years 7 of the 10 winners have had 3 months or more since seeing the track with the other 3 coming in under 35, 2 of which have been in the last 4 running’s, with 1 being last year.
There isn’t many clues in the draw other than 7 from the last 10 have been drawn 1 to 15 and the other 3 with soft in the going have all come from gates 1 to 3, so maybe more clues for this will come on the day.
As usual the Lincoln will be a fiercely contested event and will be a hard race to work out but hopefully the above will help you decide which way to go.
So as we still have not got the final runners for the race I will list the contenders I will be looking at –
• Gabrials Kaka 12/1
• Red Avenger 20/1
• Jack’s revenge 25/1
• What About Carlo 16/1
• Boom and Bust 33/1
• Baraweez 20/1
• Belgian Bill 20/1
At the moment my preference is for Red Avenger, Gabrial’s Kaka and Belgian Bill, not sure how I’m going to play yet but all may change when we get the final race line.