What I’m going to go through today is the discipline when using the ratings.
What do I mean by this ?
Well basically when I have an idea for what ratings I will use for certain types of races, it’s the necessity to stick to the specific ratings without faltering and being swayed by market prices and to trust what the ratings are telling me.
So to start off I need to decide what race type, conditions and distance I want to look at, for this article I will use 7 furlong Handicaps. Now that I have the races I want to look at I need to decide what ratings that I want to use.
I will start off with a couple of ratings that will tell me if the horse will be contenders in the race, so basically we are cutting down the field to a workable size, but I don’t totally dismiss other runners at this moment. From here I then need to find out whether a horse has any form over similar distances, so the ratings will be set to show me runners with the contender ratings from a distance of 6 Furlongs to a mile.
From here I then want to add some speed ratings to show me whether our contenders are competitive speed wise within these distances and along with the speed ratings I will then use a weight adjusted rating to help show if a horse will be competitive in and around today’s weight.
After that I will consider some class ratings to tell me if a horse is moving up, down or staying the same.
So now I have all the ratings that I’m looking to use and these are fed into my data base to give me the results. At this point I will probably have thousands of selections so I need to filter them, not necessarily to find winners but just to make sure we have good contenders. It’s at this point after going through the results that I decide on the final criteria for the ratings and move on to a live test, which I tend to do on one of the forums that I use . The reason for this is so that I keep the discipline of the ratings and not be tempted to move the goal posts and let a selection come in or out because of the result (if you know what I mean). This is known as back fitting.
From the data base results I will know exactly what my expected strike rate will be along with expected losing runs etc, so that then gives me the confidence to have the discipline in my betting.
Any live test is done to 100 winners so that I have a good data set to go through and then and only then do we make adjustments if required. The adjustments are then tested and finalised and then that’s when I start betting the system, with something like a one distance system it will be a mini system so I have to have confidence with the ratings so that I bet the selections without deviations.
And I will also have all the strike rate data etc from the live test which should back up the data test.In turn I now have to stick to my staking plan whatever that may be as well because it’s no good spending all the time creating a system that I trust will do the job if I don’t have the exact same discipline in my betting.
As is with all betting you need to have discipline not to chase losses change staking midway etc, because we all know it is a sure fire way to busting the bank.
I’ll be back next week with more insight into how I make my selections.