Before the Betfair exchange started back in 2000 all we could back was whether a horse would win or place and of course various other exotic bets and so forth. So when the exchange opened up it enabled us as punters to explore various other ways into making profit from our betting.
Now over the years more and more strategies have been developed by various differing people on ideas on how to make profit from the exchanges, but I will not be going into these as there are so many and you have probably seen most of them anyway. But I will share with you a simple strategy that I use myself on a daily basis whereby you can make extra profit on your daily selections.
This is by no means something I came up with myself, but I got the idea from listening to Timeform radio over the years from one of the Timeform pundits call Neil Munro. Neil specializes on the in running trading markets and is very knowledgeable about how best to make extra profit on horses running styles and their tendencies and one I especially liked was horses that trade higher in the run and then go on to win. Now I don’t go out looking for these horses specially to trade I will look to see if any of my own daily selections have this trait.
With the above in mind once I have my daily selections all mapped out I will then go through the horses trading patterns and see if they do in fact have this trait. If they do what I will do is bet half my stake on a price then depending on the percentages will then put a trade in for a higher price to get matched in the run if we get matched and win then we have made ourselves more profit than just staking our whole stake on the original price, if we get matched and it doesn’t win then we haven’t lost any more so it’s pretty much a win win situation.
Of course we have to get our trade price matched because there is nothing worse than the horse going on to win and we have only got half our stake on it. So the questions I ask myself before using this strategy:-
1. Does the selection trade higher in the run in similar races
2. What percentage of its runs does it trade higher
3. What percentage of times does it trade higher and then win
4. What percentage do I put the trade in
5. When can I set the trade up
Ok I will go through those question with the winning selection from Tuesday , which was Nefyn Bay in the 14:00 at Catterick.
Ok question 1 the answer will be yes it does trade higher in similar races ( all the races before the ones you can were 1 bumper and then a mixture of maidens and novices x3 ) so they were discounted as it was running in a handicap.
2. It traded higher 2 out of 3 giving us 66% of the time
3. and for this question it went on to win 66% of the time
4. for this question we work out what percentage higher than BSP , so for it’s last race that % was 63% and the race before 71% and the one before that it didn’t trade above the BSP. So looking at that I decided to put a trade in at 50% higher.
5. With this question it’s a matter of time, if you have no time to be around for the racing then you can quite easily set the trade up the night before. But if you do then you can wait for the off you get your starting price then put your trade in.
With this I took an early price of 2.7 as I felt it was going to go off as favourite anyway and thought it might shorten.
So my first bet was at 2.7 for half my stake (1.5points) and my second bet was put in for 50% more so 2.7/2=1.35+2.7=4.05 for the other half of my stake (1.5 points).
The selection went on to win and traded as high as 7.2 in the run so we got our trade aswell so happy days.
The extra profit from betting the selection was as follows.
With our full stake on at 2.7 our profit would have been 3 * 1.7 – 5% =4.84
Now with the trade it works out at
1.5 * 1.7 – 5% =2.42
1.5 * 3.05 – 5%=4.34
6.76 – 4.84 = 1.92
As you can see we have made an extra 1.92 points profit from an extra few minutes work a night .
The suggestion I would make is that only use this type of trade when one of you normal daily selections trades higher 50% of the time or higher in similar races, if it’s around the 50% mark then I would make the trade at 25% higher than either the price taken or BSP ,anything higher than 50% I would generally go 20% lower than the average percentages.
If you have the time this is another good way to increase your profits on selections you are going to bet on any way.
As usual any questions just fire away.