Word came through this Tuesday that Hannon and Hughes had had a conversation. Nothing wrong with that but when that conversation was relayed into the public domain, something happened within the market that creates an opportunity and as more informed bettors we had the chance to exploit it.
“Toronado will be suited to stepping up to the extra 2 furlongs required to win the Juddmonte International Stakes.” Those are the words that would have been quietly mentioned by Hughesy to Hannon and although cautious at first Hannon decided that it would be the right move. Once made public everyman and his dog was having a bet on Toronado to win. Now I appreciate that the trainers and jockeys are there with the horse all the time. They ride them, work with them, feed them and brush them so if any two people in the world should know how a horse will cope with a distance it would be the trainer and the jockey. But how often do they get it wrong? Hughsey had told Hannon that Sky Lantern would be suited to a step up in trip, so Hannon agreed and Sky lantern was placed in the Nassau. She came 5th clearly not coping with the distance when having been heavily bet into 7/4 favourite.
So my earlier point about exploiting an opportunity? The massive sums of money going down on Toronado have created a drift on the price of Al Kazeem, 3 time Group 1 winning super horse OVER this distance! I’d already taken the 10/11 and 4/5 thinking that they were value prices about this super horse. As I write this I’m able to back Al Kazeem at a massive 6/4. I can’t get enough of the price as can’t the people I put money down for and the people I know in the industry are all excited about getting that price about a horse that should be trading at around 1/2 !
As it happens Declaration Of War won the race in good fashion so money was lost but Toronado came stone cold last! I know people that layed Toronado on the machine because it was such a short price. These examples should be learnt from. When something has been shouted about by the media it always pays to go the other way and find some value.
Of course MATR consistently has his ear to the floor and knows what’s hype and what is real. As we head further into August we are making members good profits as we look to hit 14 profitable months in a row!
See you next week,