I wrote last week about dutching and understanding the odds around that. Today I’m going to show you a quick and effective method of finding over-priced horses and how to work it out. It is just one angle and you can adjust or tweak it to suit your own needs.
First up then we are going to focus on trainers and there strike rates and level stakes profit. We can find all this information for free on the Racing Post website. Today’s example will be at Southwell on the all weather and as we look down the stats you’ll see Brian Ellison has a 20% strike rate and a level stakes profit:
What we need to do now is to add his level stakes profit of £3.28 to the amount of runners he’s had which can be found in the left hand column so in this case it would be 312. This gives us 315.28. We now need to divide this number by the amount of winners he’s had which in this case is 67. This gives us a figure of 4.70 or close to 7/2. This means that on average his runners are winning at around the 7/2 mark so we need to find if he has any runners that are bigger than that price.
The next part to this technique is to only focus on handicaps and the horses in the top two of the weights. The idea being is that they up there because they are some of the better horses. You’ll see in the image below that Brian Ellison has a runner in the 2.40 at Southwell and this runner is the second in the weights:
So we have found Ever Fortune who is a qualifier and is priced at 9/2. We needed it to be 7/2 or above so we can assume this one is over-priced on the basis of his average winning prices. Of course it needs to win but there has been money for this one already and was available at 8/1 last night. It will probably go off at around the 4/1, 7/2 mark. Try doing this the night before and you’ll be surprised how many over-priced horses you can find. Although not fully conclusive as there are obviously other factors to consider it does on a regular basis throw a lot of over-priced horses into the mix and back them at the bigger prices and it will help you to make a profit in the long run.
So to re-cap:
1. Find a trainer who has a good strike rate (I like to stick to around 17% and upwards) and a level stakes profit.
2. Add the runners and the profit together and divide by the amount of winners.
3. Go to the card and look for a handicap race and check that the trainers horse is in the top two of the weights (they will be horses 1 and 2 on the card).
4. Check that their price is bigger than the average price found in step 2.
5. Paper trade this system until you are happy that you’ve nailed it.
That’s it. I hope you find a few winners doing this and it’s a good little system that should get you used to becoming aware of the prices and seeking that VALUE 😉
See you next week and in the mean time happy punting and good luck. As always any questions please let me know and I will answer as soon as I can. Remember to check out Value At The Races as we made 130 points yesterday and are as always at the top of all time leader board! Hop on board now as the form has settled on the jumps as we’re finding more and more value.