Have I over complicated this? That’s a question I often get asked when helping people with system development and betting in general and if I’m honest it is a question I often ask myself! You see sometimes we do have a tendency to over complicate things, not just in our approach to betting but also generally in life.
“Focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex; you have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple”
The above words were spoken by Steve Jobs and couldn’t be more true especially when it comes to our betting. So what the hell am I on about the man that wrote about Archie scores and has a habit of bombarding you with all the maths required to be a successful!?!
It’s the approach not the method I’m getting across here. I was recently in America and whilst in a bar in New York or the big apple watching the baseball I got chatting to a group of guys keen on sports betting and what they call the beautiful game of baseball. Upon asking them how they did in terms of profiting they complained that despite picking plenty of winning selections they made no profit. Upon delving a little deeper it was all to do with their approach that was losing them money not the method.
They understood about value and admitted to only backing teams when they thought the sportsbook had got it wrong about the likeliest winner. They knew the sport inside out and had a full understanding of how the lines and odds worked. They were also selective about what they backed. Sounded perfectly simple to me and I wondered why they made no money. Turns out they had no separate bank, altered their stakes all the time and didn’t always back their opinions instead following the media.
So looking at the whole picture it was obvious that their selection process was spot on. Very simple but grounded in their knowledge of the game. The thing that was cocking it all up for them was over-complicating the approach to whole thing. I left them in the bar with several bits of advice and they thanked me for sharing it. Will they go and profit? I’ll probably never know but as long as they have a separate bank, keep to level stakes and only bet when they think it’s value then they should make a profit as we all should. Of course this rarely happens as we have a habit of over-complicating things!
Have a think about it and try to simplify your approach to betting in general and if you’re reading this on an iphone or Mac then you’ll understand that simplicity is the way forward as Steve Jobs would have said 😉
Back next week with more insights into betting but until then enjoy your punting.