I showed you last week how to go about a simple method of pricing up a horse based on the average odds of a winning trainer. Of course the example I gave you went and lost but had you incorporated this into your portfolio you will have seen a few extra quid in your back pocket. If you missed the technique you can find it here: http://blog.betfan.com/quick-easy-technique/
Today I was going to talk about strike rates and what they mean when looking at them in order to find a selection. Strike rates can be powerful aids in helping us to decide the strength of a selection. I often include them when helping me to price up a tissue. The whole concept of them is very important as we see them everyday in the odds that we take when placing a bet.
If you take 4/1 about a horse then you are simply holding a betting slip that says “I think that in this race this horse has a 20% chance of winning.” If the horse goes off at that price then if you where to go through every single race in history you will see that 4/1 shots do in fact win on average twenty times out of every 100 races. That’s the strike rate.
So how can we implement this into our betting? When making a selection we need to weigh up all the variables and look at what the horses chances are. It’s a bit tricky to grasp but if we start to look at a race and stop thinking about what will win and start thinking about it’s chance to win then we will start to find value. One of the ways we can start to do this is too have a look at handicaps with older horses running in it. Looking through it’s form we can break down how often it has won over the distance, ground and class. Let’s say out of 20 runs it has won or been placed 3 or 4 times we know that it has roughly won around 20 to 30% of the time in this type of race. Have a look at it’s recent form and if it looks to be in with a chance then you can say that based on it’s previous strike rate that it should be around the 4/1 mark. If you can get on at bigger odds then you have found yourself value.
Have a play about with it and see what you find. You can find some cracking bets doing it this way and of course as I always say of you’re beating the SP you will make money in the long run.
That’s it from me today, I’ll be back next week with more betting insights. Until then happy punting!