The Dante Stakes is a Group 2 flat horse race in Great Britain open to three-year-old horses. It is run over a distance of 1 mile, 2 furlongs and 88 yards.
The Dante Stakes is currently staged on the second day of York’s three-day Dante Festival meeting.
The event is named after Dante, the Yorkshire-trained winner of the Derby substitute at Newmarket in 1945. Established in 1958, it serves as a major trial for the Derby. The first running was won by Bald Eagle.
The present race grading system was introduced in 1971, and the Dante Stakes initially held Group 3 status. It was promoted to Group 2 level in 1980.
In total, nine winners of the race have achieved victory in the Derby. The first was St Paddy in 1960, and the most recent was Authorized in 2007. The last participant to win the Derby was Workforce, the runner-up in 2010. The 2014 Dante Stakes winner, The Grey Gatsby, subsequently won France’s equivalent of the Derby, the Prix du Jockey-Club.
I have been going through the of the stats for the race and have been looking at a some ratings to see if I could give a few pointers on what I might be putting my money on.
In the last 5 years the winner has come from a break of more than 200 days and crossed the line in front 3 times with the winner in the last 2 years having a break of less than 21 days.
In the same time period the winning horse has stepped up from 1 mile 3 times , 7 furlongs once and only once has the winning horse run over a similar distance last time out.
The winning horse has also boasted a winning strike rate of 50% or more bar last year when The Grey Gatsby only had 17%. Along with that the winner has not had more than 3 previous starts other than last year which was 6.
The trainer for this type of race at this track has had a strike rate of over 10% again in the last 2 years it has been less than that.
No trainer or jockey has dominated this race in the last 5 years but Ryan Moore has won it twice in that time.
In the last 8 years the winner has only been drawn low twice from stall 1 and 3, stall 6 three times and stall 4 twice with stall 7 once, with stall 4 and 6 the last 4 years.
Ok we only have 1 runner in this year’s field that has been off for more than 200 days and that is Elm Park, there are 3 runners, Elm Park, Ol Man River and Nafaqa all stepping up from 1 mile.
There are 5 runners, Golden Horn, Jack Hobbs, Elm Park, Ol Man River and John F Kennedy all with strike rates of 50% or more.
And with the above if you replace Elm Park with Lord Ben Stack you have the trainers with a 10% strike rate or more.
If you can put any credence on the draw then we need to be looking at stall 4 and 6, Elm Park (4) and John F Kennedy (6).
There are only 2 runners who have had 3 or fewer starts, Golden Horn (2) and Jack Hobbs (2).
John F Kennedy, Lord Ben Stack and Ol Man River have all had 4 starts, the Nafaqa (6), Elm Park (7) and Medrano (9).
So from that little lot and a couple of my ratings I think that we need to be concentrating on –
John F Kennedy
I would probably stick a Dutch bet on the 3 which at the moment returns a ROI of 49%
Good luck with what you are betting on today.