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Goodwood Day One Preview

July 27, 2015 By admin Leave a Comment

As I start this blog on a Sunday evening, the skies are leaden with rain, only one cricket match in the country came to any sort of conclusion today, and quite frankly it’s cold. Not the normal circumstances one would associate with Glorious Goodwood (or, to give the festival it’s proper name, the Qatar Goodwood Festival), but the more familiar and reassuring sight of an army of entries from Mark Johnston means we’re certainly in the right place. Although the references to the weather and the sponsors are slightly tongue-in-cheek, they are nevertheless important factors – the Goodwood ground turned soft after 40mm of rain over the weekend, and the significant increase in prize money means many trainers will have placed more importance on this meeting than they might have done previously. As I update this on Monday, we have our first high profile defections of the week, with Gleneagles not being declared for the Sussex Stakes on Wednesday, followed by Limato and Air Vice Marshal being withdrawn from their engagements on the Tuesday. It means day one is looking tricky and until we know exactly how the ground is going to play out, it’s worth keeping the stakes small today…

2:00 – Class 2 Handicap, 1m1f192y, 4yo+. In what is sure to be a recurring theme throughout the week, the ubiquitous Mark Johnston saddles three here, and all look to have decent chances. So much like when Coolmore arrive at races mob-handed, the biggest clue is to be found in jockey bookings. Zand is the favoured mount of Joe Fanning, and is making his debut for the Johnston yard having come over from the continent. He is lightly raced, certainly compared to his stablemates Fire Fighting (14 races in 2015) and Sennockian Star (13 races in 2015), and so may go under the radar in terms of his price. He is not without risk but may be worth an ew punt. Luca Cumani’s Mount Logan has posted RPRs of 107 the last twice he has raced, and looks likely to put up another big performance, whilst Adam Kirby will want to prove his worth to his boss after being taken off Postponed recently. If there’s one person who’s going to be desperate for winners this week it’s Richard Hughes as he bows out from race riding and focusses on training instead. He rides Master The World for David Elsworth, and is another consistent sort – his 5 races this year have seen just 8lbs difference between his best and worst performances.
Selection: MOUNT LOGAN
Alternative: ZAND

2:35 – Group 2, 7f, 2yo. This race was won in impressive fashion last year by Highland Reel, and Aidan O’Brien would have been confident Air Vice Marshal can turn the tables on his Newmarket form with Birchwood and repeat the trick. He was my selection before his withdrawal, so bearing in mind the penalty Birchwood picks up in a race that has just 8 runners but looks high on quality, there are numerous threats, not least Galileo Gold for Hugo Palmer, whose red-hot stable must fancy their charge to handle this step up in class with aplomb. Galileo Gold also has crucial experience on good to soft. Those of you who managed to read my Royal Ascot previews will know you cannot bet on a 2yo race without at least considering the Mark Johnston entries, who seem to take their racing well and often make their extra experience tell. In this case, Beaverbrook and Welford have 11 starts between them (compared to 17 for the rest of the field combined) but it is the latter who seems to have the more progressive profile, and is Joe Fanning’s chosen ride – so Welford may be worth chancing at the prices. However, the bookies can’t split them and nor can I. Strong Challenge may be Godolphin’s second string here but he has crucial winning course experience, and his beating of Gutaifan looks better by the week. He looks to have a great chance.
Selection: GALILEO GOLD
Alternative: IBN MALIK

3:10 – Group 2, 7f, 3yo+. In this race last year Toormore was a beaten odds-on favourite, and as he hasn’t won since the Craven Stakes in April 2014, it’s hard to fancy him as favourite here in spite of several commendable performances in defeats over the past 12 months. At this stage of the season, as the 3yos mature properly into their bodies, the weight-for-age allowance becomes a vitally important feature of races like this, and so it is with that in mind we focus on the key chances here, and principally Dutch Connection. This horse was excellent in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, before following that up with a fine effort when finishing second to Territories at Chantilly. Both his defeats this season have come over a mile and 7 furlongs looks to be the perfect trip for this colt. Limato’s withdrawal makes the second pick a bit more straightforward, with preference given to Tupi, whose 4th placed finish behind Dutch Connection at Royal Ascot was sandwiched by two decent Newmarket victories. His draw may just help him run into the places…
Selection: DUTCH CONNECTION
Alternative: TUPI

3:45 – Class 2 Handicap, 1m6f, 3yo+. A handicap for those with stamina in abundance, and we begin with Battersea, a horse who was highly-progressive in his 3yo season until an inexplicably bad run at Newmarket in October. He then wasn’t seen again until this month, when he finished 8th of 14 runners over 1m4f; however, he is entitled to come on for that reappearance and the step up in trip could suit him. Ajman Bridge is another who is trying this distance for the first time, his most recent being over an extended 1m2f at York two weeks ago. Combining his career-high mark with his first attempt over this distance makes him too short for me to consider, although a good run from Mount Logan in the first might change my mind on the day… Notarised, for that man Mark Johnston, could lead them all a merry dance if he’s allowed to dictate as he did at Haydock, but his run at Newcastle wasn’t quite so impressive. His form figures read 319101, so it could be that he’ll struggle to follow up as is often the case. However, Johnston’s horses are trained to race (sounds ridiculous when you say it but some horses appear to save all their best work for the gallops) and so I’m willing to take a punt on him again. At the prices it might be worth chancing Forgotten Voice for Nicky Henderson; he is sure to get the trip regardless of the ground and certainly has the ability.
Selection: BATTERSEA
Alternative: NOTARISED

4:20 – Class 2 Handicap, 5f, 4yo+. Double Up is the clear favourite and seems to have found his niche at 5 furlongs, winning three times and placing once in four starts since dropping back to this distance as a 4yo. He certainly warrants his position at the top of the book and so the task then is to find decent value elsewhere. The old boy Humidor seems to be enjoying his racing still, and his last victory also had James Doyle in the saddle. At a lower weight, however, Top Boy might just get his nose in front for a change. The winner of only one turf race from 31 starts, his last four starts read 2342 and so we’ll take a chance on this one as well.
Selection: DOUBLE UP
Alternative: TOP BOY

4:55 – Class 2 Maiden, 6f, 2yo. A race for two year olds that haven’t yet won. Wow. Richard Hannon is the place to start seeing as he saddles five of the entrants, and Richard Hughes takes the seemingly prize ride of Papa Luigi. However, this will be his fourth start and whilst his chances are obvious, there is little value in backing a horse that hasn’t yet shown he can get in front at the line. Inland Sea, who will be ridden by Harry Bentley, has only had one start whilst Dyllan has had two – the sum of their combined three starts is three fourth places. Whilst none of Hannon’s runners should be ignored, attention is instead drawn to Goodwood Zodiac, an unlucky second at Epsom last time out, and Sir Roger Moore, who has a series of eyecatching entries and I’m always willing to forgive 2yos a bad run in the heady confines of Royal Ascot.
Selection: GOODWOOD ZODIAC
Alternative: SIR ROGER MOORE

5:30 – Class 3 Handicap, 1m, 3yo+. Having already fancied one Hugo Palmer horse on the card, it’s hard to resist another, especially with a jockey as good as James Doyle on board. Strong Steps looks to have every chance if he takes to the ground well (his only victory has come on the all weather and he’s not encountered ground softer than good yet), but his 10f second at Ayr last month shows stamina shouldn’t be a problem for him. Ifwecan has hit the crossbar the last twice, and three of his last four runs have seen him post RPRs in the mid-90s, whilst Kieran Shoemark claims 5lbs on board Hannington for Andrew Balding, and steered him to victory last time out – some claimers are not worth the weight they take off, but I don’t think this is the case here.
Selection: STRONG STEPS
Alternative: HANNINGTON

Filed Under: Back, Bet Kudos, Betfan, BetfanCheltenham2015, Betting Knowledge, Betting News, Betting Systems, Cricket, Golf, Greyhound Racing, Horse Racing, Lay, Make Money Online, Soccer, Sports, Tennis, Tipster Planet, Trading, Uncategorized, WIN Tagged With: Galileo Gold, Mark Johnston, Mount Logan, Royal Ascot

Gold Cup Preview MC Racing

March 13, 2015 By Ed Leave a Comment

No Luck In the Ryanair with the champ pulling out a great front running ride on Uxizandre with our selection coming third, the selection ran up to the ratings but was well beaten in the end .

Ok the Gold Cup ratings have pulled out three contenders for the race

  • Silviniaco Conti
  • Many Clouds
  • Holywell

But I have to say that the ratings have these three near the top of the tree , but many more are all be very close making this a very competitive race.

Out of the three Silviniaco Conti and Many Clouds have been outstanding performers this year and are very hard to separate and there are plenty more that probably warrant consideration.

I think that The Conti is a better horse than last year and Many Clouds is vastly improved and its last run here at the course was a very good win. I also think that Holywell has a good record round here and is going to be there or there about’s.

So I’m going to

Dutch

Silviniaco Conti & many Clouds for an ROI of 221%

I will also play Holywell each way

Good luck
Mick
MC Racing

Filed Under: BetfanCheltenham2015 Tagged With: Gold Cup, ROI, Silviniaco Conti

Cheltenham Gold Cup Preview

March 13, 2015 By Ed Leave a Comment

Yesterday’s report was really decent with so many horses running good races and bagging me quite a few place parts of the accumulators I put on and I had darna and vautour in an e/w Trixie with grand vision.

Darna has really turned our Cheltenham around and our account too I backed the horse twice once on the account and again from my separate Cheltenham pool so it turned out pretty well. Of the others the negatives didn’t win which was good to see but all in all very pleasing.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Day.

130

PEACE AND CO is very strong at the top of the market despite appearing short at around 11/4 the market has it down as a small amount of value (which is surprising). There is a bit of resistance in HARGAM yet BELTOR is too short. That can’t be said for TOP NOTCH who the market also likes and I also like but only as an each way bet I prefer it to HARGAM and of the 5th and 6th favs. The market prefer DICOSIMO over PETITE PARISIENNE make of that what you will? I think it has to be –

PEACE AND CO 0.5 win @ 11/4 ladbrokes
TOP NOTCH 0.5points e/w @ 8/1 betfred

Right now these look very credible options. On a real tough day

205

The market is telling us that there are a number of fancied horses for this race the list in no order is –

QUICK JACK @ 13/2bet 365
PRINCELY CONN 11/1 betfred
SORT IT OUT 12/1betfred
CHELTENIAN 18/1 paddy power

The favourite looks poor value so I would have to eliminate that one its got a go broke profile whereas PRINCELY CONN and SORT IT OUT look very interesting and there has been enough on CHELENIAN to warrant a smaller play
I would stake PRINCELY CONN 1 point e/w and SORT IT OUT 0.5 points each with a 0.5 point e/w bet on CHELTENIAN

240

BLACK HERCULES is pretty strong at the top of the market but there are others being backed. This race is going to be a real tough nut to crack. There is a little support for NO MORE HEROS whereas MARTELLO TOWER is quite weak. VALUE AT RISK is interesting and the market certainly gives it an e/w chance. At a fair price too

Of the bigger prices there has been a little interest in both ARBRE DE VIE @ 20/1 ladbrokes and TEA FOR TWO @ 28/1 paddy power.

VALUE AT RISK looks the solid e/w option 0.5 points I may just throw a few quid around on the others mentioned but nothing crazy.

320

As much I really want ROAD TO RICHES to win or rather think noel meade deserves to win a race like this from a market perspective the horse isn’t without a chance. Yet there does seam to be significant strength in others.

DJAKADAM is the most interesting and looks well fancied by the market @ around 7/1 I think it could be an e/w bet to nothing MANY CLOUDS also strong @ 8/1 while SILVINIARCO CONTI has drifted a little from its opening price and would have to be a slight negative. CONEYGREE has some fair support yet the market is telling me that CARLIGFORD LOUGH should be taken very seriously .HOLY WELL has drifted and that’s not good to see at this stage. ROAD TO RICHES is firm but not screaming back me of the others only 2 other interesting horses are SAM WINNER and HOUBLON DES OBEAUX at 50/1.

Not sure what I am going to back but definitely MANY CLOUDS,DJAKADAM and CARLINGFORD LOUGH would be highest on the list.

400

We have a strong favourite here with PAINT THE CLOUDS @ 9/2 So much so that we have to bet this horse not sure what the bet should be as the market also says we should consider a horse at a bigger price in CARSONSTOWN BOY @ 14/1 I think probably be sensible to go.

1 point win PAINT THE CLOUDS @ 9/2 bet 365
And 0.5 e/w CARSONSTOWN BOY 14/1 bet 365

440

The market definitely wants one of the top 5 in the betting to win this race which one there are no clues which is then what makes me think it either going to be a close finish between one of these 5 or that maybe there are no clues available because the market is destined to get this race wrong and one at a price will come in who knows ?

515

We have another strong favourite here in NED BUNTLINE @ 9/2 bet 365n it’s a very similar market profile to PAINT THE CLOUDS that we back earlier so it simply has to be bet the other 2 of market interest are GRUMETI @ 20/1 ladbrokes and BLOOD COTIL 9/1 will hill which both look like solid e/w alternatives I think I would stake it

0.5 points e/w NED BUNTLINE
0.5 point e/w GRUMETI
0.5win BLOOD COTIL.

Click Here For More Information About Unity Racing Club

Filed Under: BetfanCheltenham2015 Tagged With: CHELTENIAN, DJAKADAM, GRUMETI, HARGAM

Ryanair Chase

March 12, 2015 By Ed Leave a Comment

Ok we didn’t have any luck in the Queen Mother With Sprinter Sacre obviously not able to capture any of its old form and ended up being pulled up. In Hindsight the second best in the ratings for the race was The winner and maybe that should have come more into calculations.

Any way we move on to the Ryan air Chase and have gone through the ratings for this one I have come out with three contenders.

• Don Cossack 4/1
• Balder Success 8/1
• John’s Spirit 10/1

Don Cossack is on somewhat of a roll at the moment and is probably the one to beat he fills the criteria for the ratings being used and is well above average and at the top end of the ranges.
Balder Success is also having a good run at the moment and again stands up in the ratings and has some better averages than Don Cossack so is well in ratings wise.

John’s Spirit has to come into the equation for having some good course success though not quite on a par in the ratings as the other two contenders but still well enough to be considered.

So I think the bets for this race will be;

Dutch

Don Cossack & Balder Success for a ROI of 221%

Eachway

John’s Spirit

Good luck

Mick
MC Racing

Filed Under: BetfanCheltenham2015 Tagged With: ROI, Ryanair Chase

Queen Mother Champion Chase

March 11, 2015 By Ed Leave a Comment

Ok we had a good profit in the first race of the series with the selection finishing 1st and 3rd , pretty obvious with the winner and Josses hill getting up to take the place money.

Any way we move on to the Queen Mother and see what we can find for this one.
Ok the 5 main contenders for the race from the ratings are :-
1. Champagne Fever 5/1
2. Sprinter Scare 3/1
3. Dodging Bullets 9/2
4. Mr Mole 6/1
5. Sire De Grugy 7/2
They are the main protagonists as due to the fact that winner has come from the top 5 in the market over the last 6 years so we will concentrate on theses.
Campagne Fever
• Odds rank 4
• Contender rank 1
• Class rank 5
• Win % 50
Ok these are the only ratings that this one qualifies in all the other ratings it falls well behind up against the other runners.
Sprinter Sacre
• Odds rank 1
• Contender rank 2
• Projected rank 1
• Average rank 1
• Distance rank 5
• LTO rank 1
• Class rank 3
• Good race in class rank 2
• Win % 78
• Offical rating 1
What can you say this one qualifies in all the ratings and smashes the averages for all the ratings , but these may be a little skewed due to the fact that before its last run it hadn’t run for a year.
Dodging Bullets
• Odds rank 3
• Projected rank 3
• Average rank 2
• Distance rank 3
• LTO rank 4
• Good race in class rank 1
• Offical rating 3
The dodge qualifies 7 out of the 10 ratings and in those beats the average in all but is in the lower range of the distance ratingand falls well short in the win % for the winners of this race
Mr Mole
• odds rank 5
• contenders rank 3
these are only ratings that this horse can justify being a contender and it also falls down in the averages and range of the other ratings
Sire De Grugy
• odds rank 2
• projected rank 2
• average rank 3
• LTO rank 2
• Class rank 2
• Offical Rating 2
Qualifies from 6 of the 10 ratings and does reasonably well in the other ratings average and range wise.

Notoriously this race doesn’t supply any big shocks with the winner coming from the top 5 in the market and we also know that in the last 6 running’s the winner has been the favourite 3 times even the places have been filled with the top 5 in the betting so we really don’t have that much room for manoeuvre when it comes to the place market as well.
If Sprinter Sacre can come on from his come back run then he it will be definitely the one to beat.
Sire De Grugy had a comeback run before winning the next time out but I’m not sure about the quality of that race.
Dodging Bullets is a consistent enough runner and will always be there or there abouts with its stamina
Champagne fever is no doubt a very good horse but just falls short in a lot of the ratings compared to the rest of the contender field

Mr Mole had a very good race LTO giving the field saome 10 length before a great ride from the champ brought him home, but not quite sure if the other horses in the race gave all there runnings and does really get let down by its other non qualifying ratings.

With all the above in mind I’m thinking if Sprinter Scare can return to old form he has this in the bag.

I will play
Sprinter Scare for the win as there is no real value in playing the eachway market.

Good luck everyone
Mick
MC Racing

Filed Under: BetfanCheltenham2015 Tagged With: LTO, Mr Mole, Sire De Grugy, Sprinter Scare

Supreme Novice Hurdle

March 9, 2015 By Ed Leave a Comment

So here we are it all kicks off tomorrow at 1:30pm the Cheltenham Roar and the first race is under way.

I for one cannot wait and hopefully I can give you some pointers and a good start and kick the festival off with profit from the first race.

My contenders for the race are
• Douvan 2/1
• Lami Serge 7/2
• Jollyallan 9/1
• Shaneshill 12/1
• Seedling 22/1
• Qewy 14/1

Out of those contenders only one of the horses Seedling can tick every box in my previous article.

• Douvan comes into the reckoning for the pure fact that Willie Mullins does well in this race also even though it has only had the 2 runs in the country if you count the runs in france, just like last year’s winner it stands a real chance but being as short as 2/1 do I really want to put my money on a favourite when there has only been one winning favourite in the last 6 years.

• Lami Serge I’m Discounting this one for win purposes although winning its last 3 for the Nicky Henderson I’m not convinced that there is more sufficient improvement to take the spoils

• Jollyallan this comes into play as it just falls outside some of the criteria that I’m looking for and with McCoy on board will always be given a chance and will be a threat

• Shaneshill another Mullins runner if can improve well enough can well be in the mix my worry for this one is that the drop back in distance might just make it a little to pacey

• Seedling ticks every box for me when it comes to the criteria we are looking for, also has been progressing steadily winning all 3 starts after changing yards and I’m expecting more of
the same

• Qewy qualifies as a contender with only one of the criteria not matching up but could be considered for a place.

So I reckon my play for the race will be Seedling and I will go with a 20/80 bet, so 20% of my stake will go on a win bet and the other 80% will go on the place bet.

You can currently get 22/1 on befair win market and 5.2 on the place market or you can play it eve safer and take the 4 places at 2.36

All the best and good luck with your Cheltenham betting.

Rhino

Filed Under: BetfanCheltenham2015 Tagged With: Cheltenham Roar, Lami Serge, money, Willie Mullins

Cheltenham Opening Day Preview

March 9, 2015 By Ed Leave a Comment

Well the anticipation of the festival is starting to grip the nation. We are going to analyse the first day and hopefully provide a number of useful pointers to a few winners and maybe pick out a few negatives too.

The first day will kick off with the roar of the Cheltenham crowd as the supreme novices hurdle gets underway…

1:30 SKY BET SUPREME NOVICES´ HURDLE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £68,340 12 runners 2m110y Good To Soft CH4

Race Conditions: £120,000 guaranteed For 4yo+ Weights 4yo 10st 13lb; 5yo+ 11st 7lb Allowances fillies & mares 7lb Entries 83 pay £ 150 Confirmed 17 Penalty value 1st £68,340.00 2nd £25,644.00 3rd £12,840.00 4th £6,396.00 5th £3,216.00 6th £1,608.00

  • Irish trained horses have a great record in the race in recent years, having won ten of the last sixteen runnings.
  • Sixteen of the last eighteen winners won on their last appearance before the Cheltenham Festival.
  • Eight of the last 23 runners ran no more than twice over hurdles before the Supreme.
  • Thirteen out of the last fourteen winners had raced at least once in the previous forty-five days before the Cheltenham Festival.
  • The Royal Bond and Deloitte Hurdle have been excellent trials in recent years.
  • British horses 5 yr with just 1 previous start have a poor record
  • We want a horse that has won in one of its last 3 races
  • Only three of the last seventeen horses to start at odds of 3/1 or shorter have won.
  • We want a horse that has run more than once this year as horses with only 1 run this year have a poor record
  • We don’t really want horses absent over 100 days
  • We don’t want a horse coming from a handicap

It is a tough race to work out. What we can say is favourite DAUVAN is far too short with only 1 run this year he is a huge statistical negative and at quoted prices of 15/8 and 7/4 I would be against this horse winning.

Paddy Power are offering money back on losers if Dauvan wins. They are obviously in the same camp as us and know that if you back horses with this profile you will go broke in the long term.

Could there be a winner at 100/1 ? VELVET MAKER is definitely overpriced won its last start in a pretty good time, improving with each run it beat 20 other horses last time out comes from an Irish stable etc.

The horse has only ran once this year so has that stat to beat but it did run on the 26th of December so if any horse can beat the 1 run this year negative it will certainly be one that ran late in December.

We make the horse a 33/1 shot so 100/1 is huge in comparison and backing this profile over the long term will yield a profit, but is it the right bet for us to make even being overpriced it is a huge risk as we are still betting a true 33/1 shot. That been said December 2013 this horse finished 3rd 7 lengths behind VAUTOUR who went on to win this race last year by 6 lengths. The horse has ability for sure but does it have enough experience/ race fitness to really win.

The only other overpriced horse we can see is SOME PLAN @ 40/1

So its small bets here with a lay bet on DAUVAN

Thank you

Unity Racing Club

Filed Under: BetfanCheltenham2015 Tagged With: Cheltenham Festival, DAUVAN, Unity Racing Club, VAUTOUR

MC Racing – Cheltenham

March 9, 2015 By Ed Leave a Comment

Ok guys I have decided on my ratings for the races that I will be covering for the Festival, and have tried to find any trends which will help us dig out some profit in the races chosen.

I will be using :-

• A contender rating which will give an idea if a horse able to contend in the race
• A projected rating which will tell me what rsting figure that the horse is expected to run
• An average rating for runs on the days going
• An average rating for runs at the distance
• A rating that will give me figures on the horses previous runs running up to the festival
• A rating for the horses class
• A rating for good runs in class

I will use all the above ratings for each race, so a quick reminder of the races.
• Day One The Arkle Challenge Trophy
• Day Two The Queen Mother Champion Chase
• Day Three The Ryanair Chase
• Day Four The Gold Cup

The Arkle Challenge Trophy

Contender rating:

The winning horse has finished in the top five of this rating over the last six years bar one year when it was twelfth and that was back in 2009.

Projected rating:

The winning figures for this rating have been 160,176,173,188,109,150 with an average of 159
The ratings are pretty consistent bar 2013 which was quite low.

Average rating going:

The winning figures for this rating have been
169,183,186,198,92,189 with an average of 170

Again the ratings are pretty consistent bar 2013 which was quite low.

Average rating distance:

The winning figures for this rating have been
117,134,149,152,92,nil with an average of 129

With this rating the figures are not as consistent with two below par results and last year’s winner not running enough times over the distance to acquire an average.

Previous run rating:

The winning figures for this rating have been
169,183,186,181,120,146 with an average of 164

Another set of pretty consistent ratings apart from the last two.

Class rating:

The winner in this rating has been ranked either fourth or fifth bar two years when the rank was tenth and seventh.

Good runs in class rating:

This rating has been a bit of a mixed bag but the winner has come in the top seven ranked.
Also bar last year the winner of this race has come from the top four in the betting with the favourite winning twice 3rd favourite twice and 4th favourite once.

The winner has also come from the top four in the official ratings bar last year.
Also in the last six years the winner has had a strike rate of 40% or higher.

For this race I will be back Monday night with my selections and ideas on how best to play the race.

The Queen Mother Champion Chase

Contender rating:

The winner of this race in the last six years has come from the top three in this rating bar two years when it was seventh.

Projected rating:

The winning figures for this rating have been

185,166,177,177,196,206 with an average of 184 all from the top five in the rating bar two years when the winning rating was eight and six.

Average rating going:

The winning figures for this rating have been
191,174,180,184,193,189 with an average of 185 and every rating being in the top five rated.

Average rating distance:

The winning figures for this rating have been 187,157,147,188,165,166 with an average of 168 with the winning rating being in the top five apart from two years when it was sixth and seventh.

Previous run rating:

The winning figures for this rating have been 194,173,178,190,189,219 with an average of 190 again every winning rating has been in the top five with a favour to the top rated coming 3three rimes in the last six years.

Class rating:

The winner has come from the top five in this rating bar one year for which it was rated eigth.

Good runs in class rating:

The winner has come from the top four in this rating.

The favourite has won this race three from the last six years two of those being the last two years, other than that it has come from the top five.

The winner has also come from the top four in the official rating bar one year when it was seventh.
And the lowest winning strike of the winning horse has been 41%.

I will be back Tuesday night with the final write up for this race.

The Ryanair Chase

Contender rating:

The winner of this race has come from the top five bar two years when it sixth and seventh.

Projected rating:

The winning figures for this rating have been 139,176,170,173,181,168 with an average of 168 and strangely these being the sixth , seventh or eigth ranked horse in the rating bar one when it was top ranked.

Average rating going:

The winning figures for this rating have been 162,170,171,191,179,180 with an average 176 with all rating being in the top five.

Average rating distance:

The winning figures for this rating have been 111,nil,180,nil,nil,107 with an average of 133 this rating will be looked at lightly with three winning horses not having run enough times over the distance to gain an average but they have been horses stepping up in trip for the race.

Previous run rating:

The winning figures for this rating have been 158,180,172,193,174,181 with an average of 176all in the top five rated bar two when they were sixth and seventh.

Class rating:

The top rated in this class hasnt won this race in the last six years with the fifth and sixth rated twice each other than it was the second and fourth rated.

Good runs in class rating:

In this rating the winner has been either second or third rated bar two years when it was fifth or sixth.

The favourite or the second favourite has won this race five times from the last six running’s.

The winner has been officially rated In the top four.
And the winner has come into the race with a 40% strike rate or higher.

I will be back Wednesday night with the final write up of this one.

The Gold Cup
Contender rating:
The winner of this race has come from the top five in this rating bar two years when it was eleventh and ninth.

Projected rating:
The winning figures for this rating have been
184,174,194,157,171,178 with an average of 176 with winner never being the top rated but being within the top five bar two year when it was tenth and eleventh.

Average rating going:
The winning figures for this rating have been
184,168,189,173,175,170 with the average being 177 again the top rated hasn’t figured but all within the top five bar one when it was ninth.

Average rating distance:
The winning figures for this rating have been
190,nil,nil,nil,170,171 with an average of 177 all three in the top three of the rating with the other three winners stepping up in trip.

Previous run rating:
The winning figures for this rating have been
188,179,188,149,172,171 with an average of 175 again the top rated nowhere to be seen with four from the sixth being rated third or fourth with the other two being eigth or ninth.

Class rating:
In this rating the second rated has won twice along with the thirteenth rated with other two being eigth and eleventh.

Good runs in class rating:
Another mixed bag with this rating with three winners coming from the top four the seventh sixth and tenth.

The favourite has won this three times in the last six years, third favourite twice with last years winner being unfancied.

The winner has also come from the top three in the official rating apart from last year again.

With the winning horse have a strike rate of 425 or higher except from last year when it was 33%.

I will be back to finalise this race Thursday night.

Click Here For MC Racing And Consistent Profits

Filed Under: BetfanCheltenham2015

Cheltenham 2015 – “Cheltenham Goes Dutch”

March 8, 2015 By Ed Leave a Comment

The ‘Cheltenham Roar’ fast approaches and as the runners and riders of the first race, the Supreme Novices hurdle set off and mark the start of the biggest race meeting we have seen, the roar will be deafening.

In this article I will be looking closely at my “Cheltenham Goes Dutch” ante-post portfolio. This consists of the three TOP races at the festival. I will go through the history, key trends and importantly, how I am going to bet these three big races for profit using a technique called ‘Dutching’.

It’s an important fact to make, but I always use a separate betting bank for Festival meetings, totally separate from my everyday betting business funds. I would recommend everyone do this. This is NOT an everyday meeting.

Okay, lets get stuck into these three races.

Day One – Champion Hurdle

The Champion Hurdle is one of the most coveted and fiercely contested hurdle races in national hunt racing.

The Champion Hurdle is an old race with a rich Cheltenham Festival heritage stretching back to 1927 when Blaris won the first ever race, ridden by George Duller. The race is a Grade 1 National Hunt hurdle race and is run on the Old Course at Prestbury Park.

Entry to the Champion Hurdle is restricted to four-year-old and above horses that are required to jump eight hurdles during the 2 mile, 11 yard race.

Recent Winners

Date Track Winner Winning Odds
11.03.2014 Cheltenham Jezki (IRE) 9/1
12.03.2013 Cheltenham Hurricane Fly (IRE) 13/8
13.03.2012 Cheltenham Rock On Ruby (IRE) 11/1
15.03.2011 Cheltenham Hurricane Fly (IRE) 11/4
16.03.2010 Cheltenham Binocular (FR) 9/1

Trends

The Irish Champion Hurdle has strong credentials towards the winner of this race. The Irish Champion Hurdle ran at Leopardstown has produced eight Cheltenham Festival winners, six Irish Champion hurdlers have gone on to win the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle.

Therefore, the one to note there is Hurricane Fly.

Last Run Position

All winners have finished in the first four on their previous run.

Horses Age

The winners have been aged between 5-9. The main focus of the winners has been 6yo or 7yo horses, particular 7yo’s who have won on six occasions for a level stake profit of +29.19 points.

Position In Market

Favourites have a produced the most winners in this race, although other winners have generally come from the first five in the market.

Days Since Last Run

Ideally you are looking for a horse that last ran between 16-60 days.

Previous Winning Trainers With Runners

W P Mullins (2)
N J Henderson (2)
P F Nicholls (1)
A P O’Brien (3)
Mrs John Harrington (1)
Phillip Hobbs (1)

Race Conclusion

Hurricane Fly won the Irish Champion hurdle beating last years Cheltenham Champion Jezki. But although he meets some criteria the fact that he is an 11yo counts against him, as no 11yo has won this race. However, It would not be a total surprise to see him make the frame at least.

Looking through all the main trends above this is the short list.

Artic Fire,
Faugheen
Jezki

So we are down to three. Festivals can be very difficult to get 100% right, so what I am going to use is a technique called ‘dutching’ to cover myself just in case. This is purely covering more than one horse in a race.

Faugheen is the main fancy, technically just fails on the days since last run, although there has been a winner from that time span previously. Given he is the favourite, trained by Willie Mullins I’m happy to include him in my bet plan.

I am covering all three as follows to Ante-Post prices quoted.

Faugheen – £40 Win @ 5/4
Jezki – £15 Win @ 6/1
Artic Fire – £5 Win @ 16/1

 

Day Two – Queen Mother Champion Chase

The Queen Mother Champion Chase is the feature race of day two of the Cheltenham Festival.

The Queen Mother Champion Chase is a race that dates back to 1959 when it was first run as the Champion Chase and won by Quita Que, ridden by Bunny Cox. The Champion Chase was renamed the Queen Mother Champion Chase in 1980 to mark the Queen Mother’s 80th birthday.

The Queen Mother was also honored for being a keen patron of national hunt racing throughout her life, and attended the Cheltenham Festival past her 100th birthday. The Queen Mother also owned and managed a number of national hunt racehorses.

The Queen Mother Champion Chase is a Grade 1 steeplechase run over 2 miles on the main racecourse at Prestbury Park. Horses competing in the race are five-years-old and above, and are required to jump twelve fences during the race.

Recent Winners

Date Track Winner Winning Odds
12.03.2014 Cheltenham Sire De Grugy (FR) 11/4
13.03.2013 Cheltenham Sprinter Sacre (FR) 1/4
14.03.2012 Cheltenham Finians Rainbow (IRE) 4/1
16.03.2011 Cheltenham Sizing Europe (IRE) 10/1
17.03.2010 Cheltenham Big Zeb (IRE) 10/1

Trends

The Victor Chandler chase run in January at Ascot has the reputation as key preparation for the Queen Mother Chase.

But more significantly there is a superior trend that needs noting. In the last 20 years NINE Victor Chandler Chase winners have gone on to win at the Cheltenham Festival, including six Champion Chase winners and two Cheltenham Gold Cup winners.

The Tingle Creek Chase run at Sandown In early December is regarded as another race which grooms future Queen Mother Chase winners. Nine horses placed in the Tingle Creek have gone on to win the Queen Mother Chase. Of these, three were winners of the Tingle Creek.

The one to note here is Dodging Bullets who won both of these races!!

Last Run Position

Those horses finishing first last time produce the most winners, and third, the next best.

Horses Age

The winners have been aged between 5-11. The main focus of the winners has been 6-9 year old horses. Only one 5yo has run in the race and WON, which was Master Minded back in 2008.

This year there is one horse entered who is a 5yo, that is Clarcam trained by Gordon Elliot.

Position In Market

Generally winners are in the first six in the betting, but the main area of concentration should be the first three, which has produced the most winners.

Days Since Last Run

Ideally you are looking for a horse that last ran between 31-60 days.

Previous Winning Trainers With Runners

P F Nicholls (3)
N J Henderson (2)
Henry De Bromhead (2)
A. King (1)

Race Conclusion

There two very clear selections that meet all criteria of the key trends I have identified. I don’t see Sire De Grugy winning this year as the preparation has not been right.

The main fancy has got be Dodging Bullets, has impressed and of course meets every criteria, including winning the Victor Chandler Chase. But Sprinter Sacre also plays a bit part, and if reports are correct, the spark is back.

It makes for a thrilling race and I am going to cover those two as follows:

Sprinter Sacre – £25 Win @ 11/4 BetVictor
Dodging Bullets – £18 Win @ 11/2 BetVictor

 

Day Four – Cheltenham Gold Cup

The Cheltenham Gold Cup is the most prestigious Grade 1 steeplechase in National Hunt racing, and the highlight of the Cheltenham Festival. Apart from the Grand National, no other horserace in Great Britain attracts such interest from punters and fans alike.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup is run on the New Course at Prestbury Park. The race is the feature race of Ladies’ Day at the Cheltenham Festival, and sees racehorses taking on a 3-mile, 2½ furlong course featuring 22 fences.

Recent Winners

Date Track Winner Odds
14.03.2014 Cheltenham Lord Windermere (IRE) 20/1
15.03.2013 Cheltenham Bobs Worth (IRE) 11/4
16.03.2012 Cheltenham Synchronised (IRE) 8/1
18.03.2011 Cheltenham Long Run (FR) 7/2
19.03.2010 Cheltenham Imperial Commander (IRE) 7/1
13.03.2009 Cheltenham Kauto Star (FR) 7/4
14.03.2008 Cheltenham Denman (IRE) 9/4
16.03.2007 Cheltenham Kauto Star (FR) 5/4
17.03.2006 Cheltenham War Of Attrition (IRE) 15/2
18.03.2005 Cheltenham Kicking King (IRE) 4/1
18.03.2004 Cheltenham Best Mate (IRE) 8/11
13.03.2003 Cheltenham Best Mate (IRE) 13/8
14.03.2002 Cheltenham Best Mate (IRE) 7/1
16.03.2000 Cheltenham Looks Like Trouble (IRE) 9/2
18.03.1999 Cheltenham See More Business (IRE) 16/1
19.03.1998 Cheltenham Cool Dawn (IRE) 25/1
13.03.1997 Cheltenham Mr Mulligan (IRE) 20/1

Trends

The key race here is the The King George VI Chase run at Kempton on Boxing Day. One of the toughest races in National Hunt racing. Run at Kempton on Boxing Day it has a massive reputation for producing Festival winners.

In the last twenty years winners of the King George VI Chase has produced fourteen Cheltenham Festival winners. This includes NINE Cheltenham Gold Cup winners.

The one to note here is Silviniaco Conti.

Last Run Position

Those horses finishing first last time produce the most winners, but second or third last time comes into the equation.

Horses Age

The winners have been aged between 6-10. The main focus of the winners has been 7-9 year old horses. Only one 10yo has won and that was Cool Dawn back in 1998.

Position In Market

Generally winners come from the first three in the betting. In fact favourites have a level stake profit of +5.61 points. Third favourites are also in profit to the tune of +12.5 points.

Days Since Last Run

Ideally you are looking for a horse that last ran between 31-90 days. Those running 61-90 days last time out show a level stakes profit of +13.11 points.

Previous Winning Trainers With Runners

P F Nicholls (4)
N J Henderson (2)
Jonjo O’Neil (1)
J H Culloty (1)
M F Morris (1)

Race Conclusion

All the front three in the market meet all key trends. The main fancy here is of course Silviniaco Conti who also meets the prep race requirements. I think he will win, but things can happen, so this is how I am going to play the race from a dutching point view.

Silviniaco Conti – £25 Win @ 10/3 Paddy Power
Many Clouds – £10 Win @ 9/1 Paddy Power
Road To Riches – £10 Win @ 10/1 Betway

So there you have all the facts and stats of my “Cheltenham Goes Dutch” ante-post portfolio.

Just to re-cap. Here are all the bets placed.

Day One – Champion Hurdle

Faugheen – £40 Win @ 5/4
Jezki – £15 Win @ 6/1
Artic Fire – £5 Win @ 16/1

Day Two – Queen Mother Champion Chase

Sprinter Sacre – £25 Win @ 11/4 BetVictor
Dodging Bullets – £20 Win @ 11/2 BetVictor

Day Four – Cheltenham Gold Cup

Silviniaco Conti – £25 Win @ 10/3 Paddy Power
Many Clouds – £10 Win @ 9/1 Paddy Power
Road To Riches – £10 Win @ 10/1 Betway

Bets: 8
Total Outlay: £150

I hope you found this article of interest.

Good luck whatever you back and most of all ENJOY what is the greatest spectacle in the horseracing world.

Kind Regards,

Nick Field
Nick Field Racing Club
Visit Nick Field Racing Club

Filed Under: BetfanCheltenham2015 Tagged With: Cheltenham Festival, Last Run Position, Paddy Power, Queen Mother Chase

Make More Money This Festival – Proven Tricks Of The Trade

March 5, 2015 By Ed Leave a Comment

Tuesday 10th March sees the opening of this years Cheltenham Festival and the excitement is growing here in the Betfan office. We’ve been burning the midnight oil and have come up with a great portfolio of bets that maximise your profits and involves risking very little.

So let’s get cracking….

Day One – Tuesday 10th March 2015

First up then we need to open a new account with BetVictor (if you’ve got one then open one with your Mum’s or partners permission 😉 )

BetVictor are offering us a ridiculous 6/1 about Willie Mullins having a winner on the first day. Now the winnings are paid as promotional money but this basically gives us 6 free £5 bets to place with what is effectively free money. He’s got 34 entries declared at the time of writing including 3 red hot favourites so this is like buying money.

>>>Click Here For This Amazing Offer Of 6/1 About A 1/20 Shot<<<

What Happens Next:

Willie Mullins trains a winner = +£30 or 6 free £5 bets

Willie Mullins doesn’t train a winner on day one = -£5.00

Next up then and we’re being clever with an another bookie where we can guarantee a profit by doing a bit of leg work.

Screen Shot 2015-03-05 at 13.05.06

Open an account with Titanbet and they will offer you 2/1 about Ruby Walsh being the top jockey over the festival.

We can turn this into a guaranteed profit no matter what happens. Once you have placed your bet you need to head over to Betfair.

The current odds of Ruby Walsh to be top jockey is 1.56 and we can lay this off to secure our profit.

You can get a grab a Betfair account here – Click Here For The Biggest Betting Exchange In The World

Place a stake of £13.25 on the LAY side of the bet and you’ll see a screen like the one below –

Screen Shot 2015-03-05 at 13.17.00

What Happens Next:

If Ruby Walsh is crowned top jock then we win £20 with Titanbet but lose £7.57p with Betfair. This gives us a profit of £12.83p.

If Ruby Walsh isn’t crowned top jock then we lose our £10 stake with Titanbet but we make a profit of £12.84 in our Betfair accounts.

Either way we’ve made £12.83p for this trade.

So far then on day one we are looking like this.

If Willie Mullins trains a winner = +£30 or 6 free £5 bets + £12.83p = +£42.83p

If Willie Mullins doesn’t train a winner on day one = -£5.00 + £12.83p = +£7.83p.

We’ve not finished yet!!

William Hill are offering you your money back as a free bet should your horse not come in on the first race on Tuesday. The Supreme Novices Hurdle. There’s no guaranteed way to profit this one out but they are a must have bookie especially for the first race with this money back guarantee.

This offer is open to new and existing customers up to £25.00

Click Here For A Free Bet If You Don’t Pick The Winner Of The Supreme Hurdle

Screen Shot 2015-03-05 at 13.33.05

Last up then and it’s a festival banker and is a must have.

Open a new Coral account any which way you can and get an incredible 5/1 about Ruby Walsh to win any race at Cheltenham. This really is like buying money and is as close to a dead cert that you can get.

Click Here For This Outrageous Price Boost – It’s Like Buying Money!

Screen Shot 2015-03-05 at 13.47.15

Overall Summary Of Day One:

If Willie Mullins trains a winner = +£30 or 6 free £5 bets + £12.83p = +£42.83p + any profit should you back the winner of the Supreme Hurdle with William Hill + £30 from Corals when Ruby wins a race = +£100 plus

If Willie Mullins trains a winner = +£30 or 6 free £5 bets + £12.83p = +£42.83p + no loss from the Supreme Novices Hurdle as money back + £30 from Corals when Ruby wins a race = +£72.83p

If Willie Mullins doesn’t train a winner on day one = -£5.00 + £12.83p = +£7.83p + any profit should you back the winner of the Supreme Hurdle with William Hill + £30 from Corals when Ruby wins a race = +£80 plus

If Willie Mullins doesn’t train a winner on day one = -£5.00 + £12.83p = +£7.83p + no loss from the Supreme Novices Hurdle as money back + £30 from Corals when Ruby wins a race = +£37.83

So you can see by being a little clever and putting in less than 30 minutes work we can secure a profit on the day of between £30 and £100 plus.

Day Two will be updated over the weekend and we reckon we can make at least £120 over the four days with next to no risk.

Filed Under: BetfanCheltenham2015 Tagged With: Cheltenham Festival, money, Willie Mullins

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