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The Halfway Stage Of The Festival

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We’re now halfway through the festival and what a couple of days it’s been. We’ve seen Footpad win in impressive fashion. Buveur D’Air managing to get up on the line. Apple’s Jade disappoint. Altior running tamely but still winning in style. Fourteen races that have had the heart racing and six favourites obliging. If it continues like this, the bookies won’t be paying out any Christmas bonuses, this year! And all on the heavy ground! The festival never fails to impress.

My festival started with the necessary fuelling that anyone standing up all day needs and that was a fry-up. From there, my friends and I walked up Evesham Road to the sound of touts, buskers and Irish sing-alongs. Thirsty work and straight to the Guinness village for some refreshments.

Next, it was time to get money down on the first and my tip from last week, Kalashnikov looked mightily impressive in the parade ring. I was tempted to go on the nose but stuck to my guns and went each-way. Managed to get 11/2 with a few rails bookies and went down to the rail to witness the Cheltenham roar and watch my selection run.

Second by a neck (ouch). He was soaring up the run in and looked the likely winner with a furlong to go. Summerville Boy joined the party and turned a large payout into a barely breakeven position (ouch, again!)

Footpad and Buveur D’Air provided a nice double but Apple’s Jade would have paid for a holiday had she obliged. Anyhow, the day ended with a profit and spirits were high as 62,000 people left the course and headed into town.

You feel like you’ve walked the Cross Country course by the time you’ve found a pub and finding a seat is harder than finding the winner of the Grand National. It was a quick scoop and then a taxi back to the cottage for a takeaway and board games.

Not much joy, yesterday, as Altior was the only return on my wagers but was happy with the 6/5 I got on course before he was backed into evens. Nicky Henderson was looking very emotional as he entered the parade ring to pick up his prize and deservedly so. Let’s hope he can make history with Might Bite, tomorrow in the Gold Cup.

So, it’s been an exciting two days and my bank has increased by a whopping 1.3 points. Two more days to turn that around and today, I wanted to look at the Ryanair, running at 2.50 pm.

Here are some trends to get us going –

9 of the last 10 winners had won at Cheltenham before 

9 of the last 10 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before 

10 of the last 12 winners were 6/1 or lower in the market 

9 of the last 10 winners were rated 161 or more 

Un De Sceaux looks like the winner, fitting all of the trends above and could certainly be another spoiler for the bookies. He’s best priced at 11/10 at the moment and it’ll be interesting to see how the market reacts to whoever gets the ride, now that Ruby Walsh is on the sidelines. There are obvious dangers in Cue Card, a veteran and Frodon at a big price could reverse the form with the latter and give the favourite something to think about. All in all, it’s going to be an exciting renewal and if you can’t part with your money at 11/10, at least watch the greats battle it out for the thrill of it!

Good luck for the rest of the festival and I’ll be back next week when it’ll be all very quiet!

Eddie Lloyd

The Festival Has Arrived!

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It’s here! The first day of the festival has arrived and as I write this I’m looking out over Cheltenham and the hustle and bustle of the place. Bin men, people going to work, buses and cars driving about but not a single item of tweed in sight!

I’m pretty sure, everyone going to the festival is still in bed! We were out last night and there were plenty of festival goers supping ale and talking about who was going to win what. There’s always an air of optimism before the first day and it was great to see so many horse racing enthusiasts in one place. There will certainly be a few sore heads out there, this morning!

If you’ve never been to the festival before, then one of the first highlights is walking up Evesham Road toward the course. The atmosphere is incredible. It’s the same as walking to the stadium on a big match day. There’s the touts, buskers, burger vans, people handing out flyers, free scarfs, flags etc. Everyone is excited and the air is filled with optimism. The second highlight is arriving and walking into the Guinness village. Yes, a whole area devoted to the black nectar. The trick here is to stand by the bins! It’s easier to get a pint and you can get to the rails and watch the races a lot quicker.

Anyway, we’ll be heading to the course at 11.30 am to take in all of the sights and sounds. I’ve got all of my bets placed and have cash in hand to get money down on course. It’s always worth trying to get to the rails bookies where Hill’s trades as these are the first pitches and it’s where you can witness people placing £10,000’s. I’ve often seen people with 10K in £50 notes getting on a favourite. A spectacle in itself!

So, with the excitement brewing, it’s time to take stock and think about the plan for the day. I’ve covered my thoughts in previous articles and you can read those on the blog. I’ve outlined my best bets of the day, below –

13:30 – Kalashnikov each way

14:10 – Saint Calvados win

17:30 – Testify each way

Plus a double on the two odds-on favourites.

All bets have been placed and some more money will be placed on course.

I’ll be back on Thursday with a look back on the first two days and another look at Gold Cup day. Until then, be lucky and enjoy the festival 🙂

Cheltenham Gold Cup

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Last week I covered my staking plan for Cheltenham, if you missed it, you can read it here. I also covered the Supreme Novices Hurdle and you can read that, here and then I covered the Queen Mother Champion Chase that you can read here.

Having decided to cover 16 races in my analysis, today I’m going to look at the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

This showpiece is a grueling 3 miles and 2 furlongs. It’s a  Grade 1, Class 1 race. Arguably the best!

First thing on the list when analyzing these big races, as we’ve done with the other previews, is to look at the trends and this is a great way to narrow down the field and give us a head start.

Here are some of the key trends in the race –

16 of the last 16 winners had won a Grade 1 race previously 

11 of the last 15 winners had a 1st or 2nd place at the Festival previously 

14 of the last 15 winners had been in the top three of the betting 

13 of the last 15 winners had been rated 166 or higher 

15 of the last 17 winners had won earlier on in the season

Hardly, an original choice but Might Bite, the current favourite meets all of the trends. I really fancy his chances having won the King George VI on Boxing Day in convincing fashion. That sets him up nicely and he’s certainly got Festival form. He looks the one to beat and will be a win only bet for me. There’s still a bit of 4/1 about him and I expect him to go off nearer to 10/3 come race time.

So, after the last week, we’ve looked at three races and here are the selections, again –

Tuesday – Supreme Novices – Kalashnikov @ 5/1

Wednesday – Queen Mother – Altior @ 8/11

Friday – Gold Cup – Might Bite @ 4/1 

That could make up a nice little Trixie bet for 4 points and 2 point singles for a total of 10 points.

I’ll be back next Tuesday, where I’ll actually be at the festival but will have a look at any market movers and few, last pointers to help you have a profitable festival.

There are two bets for the Turbo Winning System, today –

15:35 Southwell – Brother Tiger 4/1 

15:55 Carlisle – Never Up 5/1

1 point double & 1 point singles

Back next week and it’s Festival week 😀

The Queen Mother Champion Chase

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Last week I covered my staking plan for Cheltenham, if you missed it, you can read it here. I also covered the Supreme Novices Hurdle and you can read that, here.

Having decided to cover 16 races in my analysis, today I’m going to look at the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

This showpiece is 2 miles and a Grade 1, Class 1 race.

First thing on the list when analysing these big races, is to look at the trends and this is a great way to narrow down the field and give us a head start.

Here are some of the key trends in the race –

30 of the last 32 winners had won over this course and distance 

16 of the last 17 winners had not run more than four times in the season

33 of the last 34 winners had an SP of 11/1 or under

14 of the last 15 winners were rated 160 or higher 

14 of the last 15 winners had one at least one Grade 1 race

The only horse that fits all of the trends, is Altior at a generous 8/11!

I generally look to oppose the favourites in any race where I’m looking for value, but when betting at the festival, we’re looking for as many winners as we can. This is because we have a short timeframe to make a profit, as we’re using a separate betting bank. On paper, Altior looks a machine and with previous experience of the gruelling test that can be Cheltenham, he has to be on of the festival’s bankers.

Min is the obvious threat but looking at all of the trends, I’ll be using Altior as a single and in some form of multiple bets.

I’ll be back on Thursday with a look at one more race and then it’s time to pack my bags and head down to the meeting! The excitement is already brewing here at Betfan towers!

There is one selection for the Turbo Winning System, today –

14:20 Southwell – Crosse Fire 

The Supreme Novices Hurdle

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Last week I covered my staking plan for Cheltenham, if you missed it, you can read it here. Having decided to cover 16 races in my analysis, today I’m going to look at the first race at the festival, the Supreme Novices Hurdle.

The opening showpiece, which starts with the Cheltenham roar (a truly magnificent sound, around the racecourse!) is just over 2 miles and a Grade 1 race.

First thing on the list when analysing these big races, is to look at the trends and this is a great way to narrow down the field and give us a head start.

Here are some of the key trends in the race –

11 of the last 16 winners have been Irish trained

17 of the last 19 winners had won on their previous outing prior to the festival

14 of the last 19 winners had raced at least once within the previous 45 days prior to the festival

14 of the last 18 winners have won at odds of 3/1 or greater (not a great stat for the current favourite, Getabird!) 

Going through these trends immediately reduces the field to just two runners –

The Amy Murphy trained Kalashnikov and Mullin’s Laurina.

Kalashnikov isn’t Irish trained but won on his last outing, has raced within the last 45 days and will likely go off, higher than 3/1.

Laurina is obviously Irish trained, won on her last outing, has raced within the last 45 days and will almost certainly be a decent price, come the off.

Of the two qualifiers, my preference would be for Kalashnikov purely because he’s got more experience, having won 4 out of 5 of his races over this distance. He doesn’t have to travel far and with my preference for focussing on the top of the market, he’s the one for me.

He’s available to back at 6/1 on the Ante-post market and I’ll be going each way with half of my stake. I will then wait until the day of the race and look at how I will play the second part of my stake. If he gets backed in I’ll go win only but if he drifts I’ll go each way again. I may save a few quid and cover the whole lot with a small saver bet on Laurina.

So, that’s the first race covered and I’ve got two weeks to cover the other 15!

Let me know what you’ll be backing and if you’re on the same selections as me 🙂

Next week I will have a look at Day Two of the festival and cover a race from that card.

Eddie Lloyd

Party Time At Cheltenham!

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UK racing takes a hit today with only the All Weather surviving the snowy conditions. Chelmsford is hardly inspiring but Lingfield hosts a class 3 and a class 2, which are worth looking a little further into. I’ll be backing just the one at that meeting and will tip at the end of today’s article.

Last week, I wrote about preparing for the Cheltenham festival and if you missed it, you can read it here.

This week, I wanted to write about some of the adventures I’ve had at the Festival. Times have changed a little now and it’s not quite the party it used to be but that’s okay with me as I get older!

When I worked for the bookie, we used to have to travel down to Cheltenham and spread ourselves around various shops to do what we called “spotting”. This would involve looking out for people trying to get down large sums of money down.

We knew various faces and would attempt to limit the amount of cash they got down on certain horses. The “runners” knew we were in the shops and as a result would wear some of the most ridiculous disguises.

There were wigs, fake moustaches, baseball caps pulled down low and my favourite, a bloke dressed up in full glamour gear and pretending to be a woman! He actually got away with it, as we assumed he was part of a stag do. We later found out he was part of a huge syndicate and had stung the firm for nearly 100 grand at the end of the four days!

When I left the firm and went out to do it myself, it was great fun! We would hire a minibus and get driven to Gloucester. We had a hotel and started the whole adventure on the Monday. We would have to try and get down as much money as we could and then send photos to the “head” of the syndicate to prove we’d got the money on. The evening would then descend into chaos and rarely did our heads hit the pillow before 4 am. It was then up early for the shops opening and more gambles would be attempted before heading up the hill to the course.

They were great days and a lot of money was won and lost over the 3 years I did it.

It’s a much more sober affair these days and we rent a house for the week, go to bed early and drink Malbec by an open fire every evening! We actually watch the racing for what it is, horse racing and although I’m still getting money down, it’s not the same vast sums and the bets are placed on my own analysis.

Next week, I’ll relive the time we were blown off for the festival and spent the week in a hotel bar with some great characters and I got to meet one of my heroes!

At Lingfield, I’ll be backing –

3.00 – Kyllachy Gala

He went close over this course and distance last December and was outclassed on his last appearance. Pretty much on the same weight, he should be able to make amends today and win the race.

Looking Ahead To The Cheltenham Festival

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With less than three weeks to go until the Cheltenham Festival, it’s that time of the year where we need to look at how we’re going to tackle the big event. Some will have their ante-post selections already in the bag, some will have an idea of what they’re going to be backing and some will wait for the first day, before parting with their hard earned. Whatever camp you fall into, it’s important to make sure you’ve got a separate pot of funds to cover the major showpiece.

I always say this around the festivals, make sure you’re betting with a separate betting bank. Whereas with our day to day betting, we need to be looking for value, at the festivals, we need to be looking for the winners. It’s a very small window of opportunity to profit when we have only 30 or so races to tackle.

So, what do we need to do?

First up, decide how much you’re prepared to lose. Then, look through the cards and decide what races you’ll be betting on. Finally, take your separate bank and divide it by the number of races you’ll be betting on.

Here’s what my plans look like –

Tuesday – 

Supreme Novices

Arkle Challenge Novices

Champion Hurdle

Mares Hurdle

Wednesday – 

Coral Cup

Queen Mother

Glenfarcles

Thursday – 

JLT Novices’ Chase

Pertemps

Ryanair Chase

Fulke Kim Muir Challange

Friday – 

JCB Triumph Hurdle

Albert Bartlett

Gold Cup

Martin Pipe

Grand Annual

So, that’s 16 races in total. I feel that I can find an angle in all of those races.

Let’s say that I have £1,000 set aside for the festival. I simply divide these races into my bank, which gives me just over £60 per race, to try and make a profit.

I will now spend the next few weeks, going through the form, analysing trends, stats and data. Working through all of those, I will look at backing, forecasts, placepots, laying and some multiples. All, in the hope that I will come through the other side, victorious!

Next week, I will be looking at some of the key trends for some of the races I will be betting in and let’s see if we can find some early angles before we head into the glory that is the Cheltenham Festival!

Re-visiting The Portfolio And We’re Still In Profit

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A few weeks ago, I looked at portfolio betting and why it’s essential to anyone wishing to make a profit from their betting.

I trial a lot of tipsters and spend a heap of time looking and following the proofing on the Betfan proofing pages. You can view all of our services, here.

For the purposes of this article, we’re going to concentrate on a portfolio of 3 tipsters. They are –

The Judge

15 Point Plan

Value Wins

At the end of last month, we can see that following the above three tipsters would have seen you more than double your bank after subs have been deducted.

The Judge made £35.31

The 15 Point Plan made £513.70

Value Wins made £637.65

After subs have been deducted our profit would have been £1,015.06.

In this article, let’s look at how we would have got on so far this month. Using the staking plan highlighted in last month’s article (which you can read, here) we have the following results –

The Judge has made £221.82

The 15 Point Plan has lost -£158.20

Value Wins has lost -£260.35

This means that the portfolio is showing a loss of £196.73. However, looking at the profit from January, the portfolio is still showing a profit of £818.33.

Let’s be realistic and take away this month’s subscription fees and we’re still £646.71 to the good.

So, you can see that by using the calculator from last month’s article, staking correctly and patience, after nearly 8 weeks, our bank is well intact and we’re in profit.

I will re-visit this portfolio, next month and we’ll see how this has done as we come to the end of the first quarter.

Each Way Heaven – A Look At Today’s Only Card

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There’s only one meeting on today with two cards being subjected to abandonment. Never great to wake and find that there are only 6 races to analyse. However, Southwell isn’t that bad a card and I’ve gone through all of the runners and looked for the horses I feel have the best chance of at least placing.

So, here’s my take on the only card of the day –

2.20 – 

A 13 runner handicap is never going to be easy but I can’t take the 15/8 about the favourite, Star Ascending. It’s always worth opposing such short priced horses in a big field. My pick would be for the Richard Fahey trained Ingleby Spring. She was slightly outclassed last time out and drops back into a class 6. She’s been eased in the weights by 3 lbs and the claimer on board has taken two very close of late. He’ll be looking to go one better, here and Ingleby Spring is worth an each way tickle.

Ingleby Spring 13/2 Betfair

2.55 – 

Another ticky affair and we’re 4/1 the field for this handicap. Caged Lightning looks to be the likeliest to go off the favourite. My preference is for Fran Berry’s ride on Argante. He’s got the stamina, having run well over hurdles and coming into a class 5 should see him up his game. He’s had a bit of each way money for him in the offices and this is worth a go.

Argante 6/1 Hills

3.25 – 

The most competitive race of the day in terms of the prize money. Some of them might need to the run, here including the favourite Coeur De Lion. I’m going to oppose him at that price and go with the top weight, Mixboy. There will be a question mark about the standard going but he’s got the stamina, Fanning takes the helm and knows him well so he’s got to be worth an each way shout.

Mixboy 7/1 Betfair

4.00 – 

Another large field handicap and we’re 5/1 the field. I’ve gone with another top weight in this one and the Carroll trained Mister Music. He ran well over this course and distance last time out. He’s up 6 lbs but it’s a quick turn around and he’ll be looking for the double. I’ll side with him and there’s still some value to be had for the place part of the bet at the current odds.

Mister Music 11/2 Corals

4.30 – 

Not a fan of these Novice races so will be keeping the powder dry!

No Bet

5.00 –

It’s definitely a day for the top weights in my analysis! I’ll be siding with Dixon’s Crosse Fire. He’s not shown up of late but dropping into this class 6 and not a lot looking to threaten, I think today should be his day. He’s short enough in the betting and there’s money coming for him. On that basis, to end the day, I’m going to scrap the each way bet and go for the win only bet on him.

Crosse Fire 4/1 SkyBet

Let’s hope that we have a good day and good luck!

Eddie

Portfolio Betting And How To Make It Pay

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I hope you guys managed to follow the “Another Winning System” from last Thursday’s article, as it found the winner in the 4.10 Cheltenham – Remiluc at a tasty 20/1! Sometimes, it’s best to keep things simple and when that “simple” finds winners at those prices, it’s hard to disagree!

If you missed last week’s article – Click Here To Read More

This week, I wanted to look at portfolio betting and why it’s essential to anyone wishing to make a profit from their betting. I’ll be looking for services to follow, staking plans and how best to manage the whole thing.

I trial a lot of tipsters and spend a heap of time looking and following the proofing on the Betfan proofing pages. You can view all of our services, here.

For the purposes of this article, we’re going to concentrate on a portfolio of 3 tipsters. They are –

The Judge

15 Point Plan

Value Wins

Let’s assume that we joined on the 1st January 2018 and have £1,000 as our total investment. The first thing we obviously need to do is to allow for the subscription costs. The total cost of joining all three services (on a monthly basis, it would be cheaper if you subscribed on a quarterly basis) is £171.62. A big outlay but manageable on a £1,000 bank.

We then need to look at how we manage our stakes. Looking through the proofing that we have available to us, we can work out our basic staking.

The Judge 26% Strike Rate

15 Point Plan 26% Strike Rate

Value Wins 35% Strike Rate

We use these strike rates to determine our stake size.

You’ll see in the image below how the calculator has calculated the required stake and how much profit has been made –

We now do this for the other two services –

You can download this calculator for free, here

So, as we come to end of the month, we can see that following the above three tipsters would have seen you more than double your bank after subs have been deducted.

The Judge made £35.31

The 15 Point Plan made £513.70

Value Wins made £637.65

After subs have been deducted our profit would have been £1,015.06.

You could take your original £1,000 back and play with the bookie’s money, or you could change your bank and adjust the stakes accordingly.

Have a play around with various services and see what works for you. You’ve got the right tools and information to build your own successful portfolio, now!

Back next week with a look at more useful ways to make your betting pay 🙂

Eddie