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Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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The Premier League Rules Europe – All Four Clubs Could Be In! 

The impossible dream of the four finalists in the Champions League and Europa League being clubs from the Premier League could still become a reality. Liverpool and Tottenham did their bit in the Champions League from three goals down and now the ball is in the court of Chelsea and Arsenal in the Europa League who are both favourites to qualify from their ties which are decided this evening. One leg of the double has been taken care off but the odds on ENGLAND being the nationality of the winner in both European competitions is now about 1/3 with bet365.  

Arsenal take a 3-1 lead to Valencia after the first match in London in the semi-finals of the Europa League. Unai Emery, the man chosen to replace Arsene Wenger, won the trophy three times with Sevilla so knows what it takes. Despite some shambolic displays in the Premier League winning a competition in his first season would be a fine achievement by Emery. Arsenal have scored in eight of 10 away fixtures in the Europa League and Valencia rarely fail to find the net at home. The best bet is BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at 8/15 with Ladbrokes.   

Chelsea earned a 1-1 draw away to Eintracht Frankfurt in their first leg but were value for a win. They should complete the job at Stamford Bridge and progress to the final of the Europa League, a competition they won in 2012-13. In fact Chelsea are one of just five clubs who have won all three of UEFA’s main club competitions. (Juventus, Ajax, Bayern Munich and Manchester United are the others).  However, anything is possible in two-leg football and a goal for Eintracht would put them in the driving seat. EINTRACHT FRANKFURT are 7/2 with bet365 to qualify for the final.

It’s the second day of the Chester May meeting and the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes (3.35) over one mile, five and a half furlongs is the richest race of the day. Idaho won the race for Aidan O’Brien last season and he has the favourite this time. KEW GARDENS can cope with a seven pounds penalty and justify favouritism at Evens with Ladbrokes.     

Rick’s Sports Betting: Opposing Hand Picked Greyhounds For Profit – By Rick Elliott

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Greyhound racing in Britain has a format that has not changed for many years. In terms of the number of active tracks the sport appears to be in decline. However, Racing Post Greyhound TV shows live racing every night so the sport must be doing something right. Every race involves six dogs who run from traps and statistics can be used to identify runners to lay in graded races.

Each track employs a handicapper who assesses the relative merits of dogs based at the track. They are assigned places in graded races baaed on their ability and the best dogs race from the best traps. Statistically Trap 1 and Trap 6 provide most winners because the dogs are best positioned to avoid trouble in running. Runners from Traps 2 to 5 are more likely to bump into each other at the first bend.

If the dog running from Trap 1 starts the race well and takes the first bend in front of the rest of the field the race can be over. A favourite that “pins the lids” (breaks well) from the inside trap will be hard to catch and can gain a winning advantage over the first 50 metres of the race. The other dogs will be scrambling for position around the first bend and there could be interference.

The dogs drawn wide on the outside can drift further out to avoid trouble in running while the other four runners must fight for a good position as they head into the back straight. Statistics show that runners from Trap 2 and Trap 5 are more likely to have their runs disrupted by collisions and these dogs can be out of a race in the early stages. Money can be made opposing dogs running from these traps.

It is best to focus on graded races rather than heats in open competitions. The form is more reliable and the dogs are exposed. They are racing at their true level while in open races their might be little collateral form. If you looking to lay dogs to make money you should focus on graded races but ignore Grade 1 and Grade 10 level as these are the extremes and the statistics do not hold up as well as in the other grades.

There are trap statistics online which show the winning percentages at each track. We are not concerned with Trap 1 and Trap 6 but we are interested in the statistics for the other four traps. You should identify the trap that has produced fewest winners in the calendar year. If two or more traps have the same winning percentage use results for second place finishes to determine the trap number to lay.

Race cards are published in the Racing Post or on websites online. You have identified the dogs to lay but if the forecast starting price is more than 6/1 these dogs are eliminated. You should also ignore any greyhound that finished first or second on the last start and disregard dogs that recorded the best time over the race distance on the last run. There will be about 6 qualifying races at each meeting and you will now have a list of dogs to lay.

 

You can apply a level stake strategy or use a compounding bank. Your lay stake will be to lose a fixed amount which goes up during a winning run and drops during a period of losing bets. You are laying dogs running from traps 2,3,4 and 5 so generally are opposing the slowest dogs who are most likely to find trouble in running. Over time this strategy will make you steady profits when you want a dog not to win.

Blue Point And Mordin The Big Race Double – By Ian Hudson

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The racing today is about quality as well as quantity and the highlight of nine meetings in Britain and Ireland is the Group 1 July Cup. The Newmarket feature often identifies the best sprinter in Europe. However, the race has lost some of its prestige because last year’s winner, Harry Angel, is not taking part this time. On UK form Blue Point is the best horse in the race. Redkirk Warrior is one of the best sprinters in Australia but may struggle again at this level in England.

The John Smith’s Cup is one of the richest handicaps of the season and is the main race at York. This is another race in which last year’s winner is not in the field. Ballet Concerto won of a rating of 102 and the lowest rated horse this year is four pounds higher. Mordin has a decent opportunity on ratings and form. The horse is due to be ridden by Graham Lee who has won the Grand National and Gold Cup at Royal Ascot so he has excelled on some big occasions in the past.

The July Cup is a race for horses aged three and older and the distance is six furlongs. It is one of Britain’s most prestigious sprint races and a championship contest. Harry Angel won as a three-year-old last season and benefitted from a weight for age allowance. The horse tracked the leaders and was strong in the final furlong. It would have been interesting to see how Harry Angel performed without the allowance but the horse was withdrawn earlier in the week.

The champion sprinter was injured at Royal Ascot when ducking down in the stalls. Harry Angel was the highest rated sprinter in the world last season. Merchant Navy  won the Diamond Jubilee Stakes in which Harry Angel could not recover from losing several lengths at the start. The big disappointment was Redkirk Warrior who finished 10th without getting into contention at any stage in the race. The horse has winning form with Merchant Navy in Australia.

The Newmarket Handicap is a Group 1 race for horses aged two and older over six furlongs that is run at Flemington. Redkirk Warrior won the race and beat Merchant Navy who finished third less than half a length adrift of the winner. The winner was carrying 10 pounds more than Merchant Navy and that form makes the July Cup winnable but Blue Point can be the fly in the ointment. The horse won the Group 1 King’s Stand Stakes over five furlongs at Royal Ascot and the form is solid.

The York heritage handicap is virtually a conditions race due to the narrow range of weights in the projected field. Even though three-year-olds are eligible no horses of that age have shown the form to get a place in the field. With Lee on board Mordin can reward his backers by winning the race at a big price. The horse has finished second on his last three starts but won the three other races he contested. Blue Point and Mordin would make a lucrative double on a busy day for racing.

Declan’s Eye-Catchers – By Declan O’Donoghue

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BROTHER BEAR (Jessica Harrington) Looked a hot prospect early last season but the wheels came off after a creditable effort at Royal Ascot. Back in business at Naas last Sunday where the return of fast ground clearly made a difference. Goes for the Jersey Stakes but in the longer term will certainly get a mile.

DAMUT (Mick Winters) Made a dramatic impact in his first run for his new trainer when beating the high class Rashaan at Limerick. For a novice chaser he has plenty of experience, and clearly some previously untapped talent under the bonnet too.

DEVIL’S GLEN (Alan Fleming) Clipped from 50/1 to 25’s before scooting home in the opener at Tipp on Thursday where he beat a decent yardstick in Gold Seal who had every chance. Onwards and upwards from here.

JETEZ (Jessica Harrington) Good ground made a world of difference to this Getaway gelding as he justified strong market support – 15/8 to 5/4 jolly – at Limerick. Needs two and a half miles to really shine, and his jumping can be hit and miss though it was sharp and sure when he really needed it in the closing stages.  No doubt he is Galway bound, but he should pick up another race or two in the meantime.

PREMIER LEAGUE (Mick Mulvany) Jockey Chris Hayes said this Sligo winner could be well suited to Galway. That’s important because a lot of horses can’t cope with the famous Ballybrit circuit at all. He has won over six furlongs but seven seems to suit better and there are plenty of opportunities over that trip at the western Festival.

SCRIOBH NUA (Jim Bolger) Translates – in reverse – as new writing. And she went into many notebooks with a staying on debut third over a mile to hot Ballydoyle filly Broadway. Kevin Manning had quite a job pulling her up afterwards, she clearly enjoyed herself and wouldn’t mind stepping up in trip.

SIOUX NATION (Aidan O’Brien) Won the same race that Caravaggio won on his route to Royal Ascot and victory in the Commonwealth Cup and will try to complete the same double. Last year’s Norfolk Stakes winner has already tasted success at the Royal jamboree. One time there was a feeling that Coolmore weren’t that bothered with sprinting, but clearly there has been a policy change. This son of the deceased Scat Daddy would be a big attraction at their Kentucky stud should he continue to progress along expected lines.

NO WONDER THE BOOKIES RESTRICT HIS BETS… Declan on Thursday – Golden Jewel 10/1 (won 9/2); Madison To Monroe 9/1 (w 7/2); Masons Daughter 6/4 (w 9/10) and Calie Du Mesnil 11/8 (w 1/2)… BUT THEY CAN’T STOP HIM PASSING ON HIS TIPS EXCLUSIVELY TO US AT BETFAN!  

 

Get on board today for the IRISH GUINEAS WEEKEND, and get the Irish angle for the Derby and Oaks next weekend and of course Royal Ascot in a few weeks time.

Special Deal – Get 12 months membership with NO recurring subscription for a one-off payment of just £95… only £8 per month!

CLICK HERE FOR DECLAN’S IRISH RACING

Updating The Portfolio – A Profit Is Made

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In January of this year, I looked at portfolio betting and why it’s essential to anyone wishing to make a profit from their betting.

I trial a lot of tipsters and spend a heap of time looking and following the proofing on the Betfan proofing pages. You can view all of our services, here.

In my first article, back in January, I looked at a portfolio of 3 tipsters. They were –

The Judge

15 Point Plan

Value Wins

At the end of January, we can see that following the above three tipsters would have seen you more than double your bank after subs have been deducted.

The Judge made £35.31

The 15 Point Plan made £513.70

Value Wins made £637.65

After subs have been deducted our profit would have been £1,015.06.

Let’s look at how we would have got on so far this year. Using the staking plan highlighted in last month’s article (which you can read, here) we have the following results –

The Judge has made £1,764.06

The 15 Point Plan has made £384.55

Value Wins has made £76.96

This means that the portfolio is showing a profit of £2,225.57 since the beginning of the year.

Let’s be realistic and take away the subscription fees (based on 90-day subs) and we’re still £1,889.57p to the good.

So, you can see that by using the calculator from last month’s article, staking correctly and patience, after nearly 12 weeks, our bank is well intact and we’re in profit.

I will re-visit this portfolio, next month and we’ll see how this has done as we come to the end of the first quarter.

Re-visiting The Portfolio And We’re Still In Profit

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A few weeks ago, I looked at portfolio betting and why it’s essential to anyone wishing to make a profit from their betting.

I trial a lot of tipsters and spend a heap of time looking and following the proofing on the Betfan proofing pages. You can view all of our services, here.

For the purposes of this article, we’re going to concentrate on a portfolio of 3 tipsters. They are –

The Judge

15 Point Plan

Value Wins

At the end of last month, we can see that following the above three tipsters would have seen you more than double your bank after subs have been deducted.

The Judge made £35.31

The 15 Point Plan made £513.70

Value Wins made £637.65

After subs have been deducted our profit would have been £1,015.06.

In this article, let’s look at how we would have got on so far this month. Using the staking plan highlighted in last month’s article (which you can read, here) we have the following results –

The Judge has made £221.82

The 15 Point Plan has lost -£158.20

Value Wins has lost -£260.35

This means that the portfolio is showing a loss of £196.73. However, looking at the profit from January, the portfolio is still showing a profit of £818.33.

Let’s be realistic and take away this month’s subscription fees and we’re still £646.71 to the good.

So, you can see that by using the calculator from last month’s article, staking correctly and patience, after nearly 8 weeks, our bank is well intact and we’re in profit.

I will re-visit this portfolio, next month and we’ll see how this has done as we come to the end of the first quarter.

Rick’s Sports Betting: New Account Free Bets And Bonuses – By Rick Elliott

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Welcome to Rick Elliott’s Sports Betting World. This is a new feature that will cover a wide range of subjects but all rated to sports betting. The weekly column will appear each Saturday in your Newsletter and will enhance your enjoyment and hopefully profitability in the field of placing bets on your favourite sport. These articles will form the basis of a guidebook in the battle to beat the bookies.

Sports betting has grown massively over the last 20 years. The onset of the internet, dedicated sports channels and more sports-orientated online bookmakers are factors that have contributed to this explosion. There are now many more sports, leagues and markets to bet on and you can now be the bookmakers by laying odds with a betting exchange. Spread betting provides another option whereby you go high or low on outcomes. If you love betting on sport you have never had it so good!

The bookmaking industry is becoming consolidated due to mergers and acquisitions. However, the market is still characterised by many service providers competing for your custom. Some bookmakers compete on price by applying small profit margins to their odds while others offer bonuses for existing customers. However, the main selling tool is free bets and bonuses for new customers. The best ones in principle are described below.

The best free bets are the unambiguous ones with transparent terms and conditions and realistic wagering requirements. The most common new account free bets are matched deposit offers in which the value of the free bet is related to the initial deposit. The best ones are 100% matched deposit free bets which means the bookmaker matches the first deposit. It is common to see a 50% matched deposit but uncommon to see a 200% matched deposit. Most in fact are 100% matched free bets.

The best welcome bonuses credit your account with betting funds rather than the equivalent in free bets. Offers that don’t stipulate wagering and odds requirements stand out from the rest. It is usual that a condition of receipt of a free bet is that the deposit and bonus must be staked a certain number of times before the funds can be taken from an account. Most commonly the deposit and bonus must be staked about five times but there is usually a time limit of 30 to 90 days. The qualifying process must begin soon after opening an account and making the first deposit.

The logical action would be to turnover stakes on a big favourite. However, there is a minimum odds requirement for qualifying bets which is often even money or lower. There is a separate odds requirement for individual selections in a multiple. Both these restrictions are designed to prevent manipulation of the offers by punters. In some cases the severity of the restrictions negate any benefits from the free bet. The relevant terms now have to be clear and unambiguous. You must be wary of bookmaker free bets and bonuses without transparent and achievable terms.

The Gambling Commission work with the customers (punters) interests in mind. There are also forums and chat rooms online that highlight the poor free bets. If there is a particularly good offer in the industry word will soon get around. Before opening an account to take advantage of the welcome offer you should do due diligence. This involves becoming familiar with the turnover and odds restrictions and the form of the free bets. The better offers have low turnover requirements, high odds limits for qualifying bets and receipt of the bonus in the form of betting funds.

Compounding And How It Works

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We’ve had a few support tickets through over the last couple of weeks about how compounding works, what is it, how it works and more importantly does it work.

In today’s short article I’ll go through the mechanics of compounding and how best to use it.

So in essence, compounding is a way to increase your betting bank at an accelerated rate. We start with a sum of money and then increase our stakes with our profits. There are two ways that we can do this.

  1. Instant compounding
  2. Interval compounding

 

So let’s look at number 1 –

We start with a bank of £1,000 and have a 2% stake for each selection. This would mean £20 per bet. With this method, we always use 2% of the bank regardless of our position. Let’s say our first bet loses, our bank would stand at £980. Our next bet would now be £19.60 and so on.

The other way and we’ve backed a 5/1 winner with our first bet. We would now be at £1,100. The next bet would be £22.

There are a few variations on the above and some people will always stick to the original stake size whilst the bank is in the negative. When they start to hit a profit they then up the stakes accordingly.

Method number 2 then, Interval compounding is my preferred method.

Same as above we start with a £1,000 bank and stake 2%. We keep betting at 2% no matter what happens. When we have increased the bank by 20% we then compound this profit and up the stake in line with the bank. So, in this case, we would now have £1,200 having made 20% and the stakes would now be £24. We wait for another increase of 20% (on the original bank, so another £200) and then our stakes become £28.

Here’s the sequence in 20% increments –

BANK SIZE STAKE SIZE
£1,000 £20
£1,200 £24
£1,400 £28
£1,600 £32
£1,800 £36
£2,000 £40
£2,200 £44
£2,400 £48
£2,600 £52
£2,800 £56
£3,000 £60

 

So basically with each interval of £200, you increase your stake by £4.

There are many variations on the above but that should give you a good idea on how the main principles of the method work.

Starting With A Small Bank And Growing It

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For those of you that follow my weekly ramblings, you’ll know that I’m a big fan of patience and discipline.

These two virtues need to be applied to our money management that I keep banging on about and needs to be enforced from the outset. One way we can instil this within ourselves is to save up for our betting bank.

A friend of mine actually gave up betting and quit for a whole year while he saved up and worked on his portfolio. He’s now one of the most successful bettors out there.

By showing you have the discipline to save money, not spend it and build up a bank will hold you in good stead for when you do go eventually live. It also means that once the bank is in place it won’t affect your monthly income. This in itself is also paramount to your success. One of the many pitfalls of betting is that people mix it with their monthly income and this adds more pressure. By having a separate bank you release the pressure of not having it attached to your current outgoings etc. By viewing that bank as a long-term investment and with a view to releasing profits from your investment you’ll be much better off.

Even if you don’t have much money you could stick a tenner aside each month and after a year you would have £120. Following the advice in these articles and working out your stake size you would then be able to build that small bank up and by compounding the profits you’d be surprised at how it can build up.

Here’s an example:

£120 invested –

Your approach/system/tipster shows a strike rate of 25% from the paper trading you’ve done. In working out your stake size we know that a 25% strike rate would result in up to 24 consecutive losers. We multiply this by three to protect the bank and divide this number into our £120. That’s 24 x 3 = 72. Therefore £120 divided by 72 = £1.67 per bet.

After the first month, we’ve made 30 points profit. That’s 30 x £1.67 = £50.10 + £120 = £170.10

We now compound this so take the £170.10 and divide by the 72 = £2.36 is our new stake size.

Realistically you will of course have losing months but let’s assume that we average 30 points profit on winning months and lose 10 points on losing ones. We have 2 winning months followed by a losing month. Look at the compounded bank over the course of a year below:

Month 1 = £170.10

Month 2 = £240.90

Month 3 = £207.40

Month 4 = £293.80

Month 5 = £416.20

Month 6 = £358.40

Month 7 = £507.80

Month 8 = £719.30

Month 9 = £619.30

Month 10 = £877.30

Month 11 = £1242.70

Month 12 = £1070.10

I appreciate that is a fairly simple example and betting can be more volatile but it serves to illustrate how effective compounding your bank can be. That £120 has turned into just over a £1000 in a year which is incredible. Were you to carry on with that for the next couple of years you would be making 10’s of thousands a year and all from £120.

Have a look into it and think about how you could grow your bank even further. Once you’ve found that reliable method and worked on your bank sizes etc you can look into compounding your betting and grow your bank even bigger.

If you like the idea of growing your bank in the way above you seriously need to check out the service below….

Visit Odds On Bankers

NEW REVIEW SITE – WITH BELLS AND WHISTLES – By Peter Philipson

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Let me start by introducing myself – I’m Peter Philipson and for the last 7 years or so I have been examining betting services and systems over at the sadly now defunct More Money Review. That site was geared to publishing reviews as its prime function and so I was delighted when the BetFan team asked me to set up a new site which would carry on the good work.

The result is a few bitten finger nails and the launch of Bet World Reviews which I will be editing and hope to have contributions from all the site members to enhance the experience for us all.

The first question you might ask is whether I am only going to look at BetFan products? No is the answer there – the site would not be valuable if that were the case and you will see from the start up that most services are from all over the spectrum. OK what will I say about BetFan products when I do look at them? Can I be critical of them.

Here the answer is a definite yes. At my old stable I looked at many in house products and where critical comments were needed these were made and never changed. I have the same assurance from the BetFan team that I can say what I like so long as it is backed by fact and that has always been my mantra.

We are bringing some new features to BWR including league tables for our reviews which can be selected over a time to suit your personal requirements and what we believe is a world first – video reviews. This will give me the opportunity to demonstrate how the service performs emotionally which can be critical in appeal terms. You will understand that I will not have the time to make videos for all our content but I am sure the feature will bring added value to the site.

And of course we have benefits for those that wish to join the site membership. As well as the ability to add your comments to reviews you can find 4 free betting systems and the chance to take a free 14 day trial of one of the top performing BetFan services. So how much is all this going to cost I hear you say?

A big fat ZERO – nothing at all! The service is free at the point of use and so I really hope you will join me soon and find out what’s hot and what’s not.

Keep in touch with new site content by using our Twitter feed –@BetWorldReviews – or if you prefer Facebook we can be found at @betworldreviews.

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