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Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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The televised domestic match is the EFL Cup fixture in which Sheffield Wednesday visit Sunderland. Ties now go to a penalty shootout if scores are level after 90 minutes but maybe the competition should be scrapped because nobody is bothered until the Premier League teams get involved and most of those are indifferent. Sunderland have sold 22,000 season tickets which is a huge number for a team playing in the third tier. Wednesday have won just three of their last 14 matches on the road and team selections tonight may extend that run. SUNDERLAND have the deeper squad so are the bet to win the match in 90 minutes at 29/20 with William Hill.

There are 36 matches in the Europa League this evening so the trick is to find three form teams and have a decent priced treble. You would need a degree in Geography to identify all the locations but all we can say without fear on contradiction is that all the matches are being played in Europe.

As a starting point and because I’ve heard of the name of this town let’s make a home win for Burnley against Istanbul Buyuk the first leg. Rosenborg often qualify for the Champions League and they are metaphorically in a different league to Cork City who they can beat at home. The banker must be Zenit in their home match against Dinamo Minsk. The TREBLE pays over 2/1 with Ladbrokes.

St Helens finished top of the Super League after the regular season but are not taking that form into the Super 8s playoff scenario. In 2018 the Saints have lost just three matches in the league and one of the teams that beat them is Wakefield. They host St Helens tonight whose form has dipped in the last two weeks. Current form suggests WAKEFIELD can win this match and that result can be backed at 11/8 with Coral.

There is £152,000 on offer in prize money at Salisbury today and the track have been rewarded with a small but select field for the Group 3 contest for cots and geldings aged three and older over one mile.(4.10pm) ELARQAM gets a handy six pounds age allowance and the horse has impeccable breeding. The Mark Johnston horse could edge the trainer to a new record for winners trained at 5/4 with bet365.

Chelsea Can Beat Arsenal In First Major Clash – By Ian Hudson

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The first blockbuster match of the new season could see Chelsea beat Arsenal.

Chelsea made a good start to the new Premier League season with a 3-0 win at Huddersfield but their opponents are one of the favourites for relegation so the value of the form is questionable. The new man in charge, Maurizio Sarri, encourages attacking football so three goals on the road is a good start.

Manchester City will have many more comfortable away wins than the 2-0 victory at Arsenal over the opening weekend. The match marked the start of the post Arsene Wenger era at Arsenal and there were plenty of encouraging signs but ultimately City were the better team and scored two goals without reply. Chelsea can inflict a second defeat so Arsenal will be at the wrong end of the table.

The live TV weekend football programme from the Premier League begins with Cardiff’s home match against Newcastle on Saturday. When 13 football odds compilers were asked which teams they thought would be relegated from the Premier League season not one did not include Cardiff in their projected bottom three. The consensus is that Cardiff are the least equipped of the promoted teams to avoid an immediate return to the Championship.

The owner of Newcastle spent £90 million buying the House of Fraser but Mike Ashley has not provided funds for Rafa Benitez to buy players. The manager is fighting a losing battle with Ashely who seems to prioritise expanding his retail empire over improving the Newcastle squad. However, the side should have enough to win maximum points at Cardiff.

The champions are in action for the first time this season and Manchester City should record a comfortable win at home against Huddersfield. City won more than 100 points and scored more than 100 goals and finished 19 points ahead the pack in winning the Premier League last season. The hunger and desire was there in spades in the 2-0 win at Arsenal and City will again be the team to beat.

Huddersfield scrapped and scraped their way to Premier League safety last season but second season syndrome is possible. They had the smallest budget in the top flight by some distance and they have not splashed the cash this time. Some aspects of playing at the top level could be more difficult second time around. Avoiding defeat in Manchester looks beyond them.

Brighton relied on their home form to stay in the Premier League and managed to finish 15th with 40 points. Leicester were the only side not in the top six to earn maximum points at Brighton but only won twice on the road. Manchester United overall were the second best team in the Premier League last season but could not lay a glove on their rivals across town. Jose Mourinho has bemoaned the lack of arrivals but United have a squad that could get closer to City over the full season and take care on Brighton on the road.

Wilfried Zaha is Crystal Palace’s key player and they find it difficult to win in his absence. He did not start in nine matches last season and Palace lost the lot so his influence and contribution is obvious. Liverpool are being touted as the team most likely to give Manchester City a run for their money. They could not have made a better start to the new campaign with a 4-0 home win over West Ham with Mo Salah scoring the first goal again. A win at Palace can consolidate their position at the top of the league.

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Atletico Madrid had the best defence in La Liga statistically last season but tonight’s  Super Cup match against Real Madrid has goals written all over it if you take the evidence of recent outcomes. The match that brings together the winners of the Champions League and Europa League is basically a pre-season friendly but when rivals from the same city meet there will be a competitive edge to the match. The last eight Super Cup meetings have produced 28 goals at an average of 3.5 goals per match. However, Atletico’s mean defence and Real’s weakened starting 11 may make this a relatively tight contest so UNDER 2.5 GOALS is the bet at 4/6 with Coral.

At the end of last season’s Champions League final Gareth Bale basically said “I want to leave Real Madrid. Are you interested in buying me?” The departure of Cristiano Ronaldo to Juventus has changed the dynamic and Bale could be the beneficiary. Ronaldo scored 451 goals for Real Madrid so there is an opportunity for another player to fill the void. BALE can be backed at 7/4 with bet365 to score at any time against Atletico tonight.

It seems strange that any type of cricket fixture in Britain should be between Birmingham and Lancashire. The T20 Blast has rebranded Warwickshire to call them the name of the second city but that won’t change the likely outcome of tonight’s match at Edgbaston. Birmingham must win to have any chance of finishing in the top four while a win for Lancashire would increase the chances of a home match in the next round. LANCASHIRE should be backed to extend their run to four wins at 4/5 with Betfair.

Salisbury is the most lucrative of five meetings in Britain today and the six races offer £100,000 in prize money which is a decent pot. The richest race by far is the Listed fillies’ stakes for horses aged three and older over one mile and two furlongs at 3.40pm. On form and ratings CHAIN OF DAISIES can win the race for the second time and that outcome is 3/1 with William Hill.

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Celtic Could Struggle To Take The Heat in Athens

Celtic win all their matches in the Scottish Premier League and qualify for the group stages of the Champions League. You can add these two certainties to night following day and taxes. However, what has happened in the past does not mean it will happen in the future. Celtic lost to Hearts last Saturday and could fail to progress beyond the third qualifying round of the biggest competition in European football. Only optimists and dedicated CELTIC fans will be backing them at 1000/1 with bet365 to win the Champions League but Leicester were bigger outsiders to win the Premier League in the 2015/16 season. However, lightning does not strike twice.

Celtic drew 1-1 at home against AEK Athens in the first leg of the tie so need to win or achieve a scoring draw to keep their hopes alive. Brendon Rodgers has been in charge for 16 matches on the road in the Champions League and Celtic have not managed to win 12 of those fixtures. They failed to find the net on the road at Hearts and a match in the capital of Greece is a much tougher proposition. AEK Athens rarely lose to home and it will be a hot and steamy evening. Celtic can avoid defeat but not do enough to move on to the next round so AEK ATHENS are the team to back to qualify at 8/11 with William Hill.

Sussex play Glamorgan at home in the T20 Blast in a fixture that will go a long way to deciding which county progresses to the knockout rounds. Home advantage could not be enough for Sussex to win the match and the visitors were on a run of five wins before losing to the southern section leaders Somerset in their last match. Sussex have lost two of their last three completed fixtures and GLAMORGAN have the batsman to win this match for which they are 6/5 with Ladbrokes.

Chelmsford should be applauded for putting on some decent racing for an All-Weather fixture on a Tuesday which offers almost £100,000 in prize money. That is more than many Saturday meetings on turf. The handicap over one mile and two furlongs (3.30pm) is the richest race of the day. On ratings Wissahickon ridden by Frankie Dettori is the form horse but THREE WEEKS will enjoy the trip and can be backed at 6/1 with Coral to win this race.

This Weeks Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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The Super Cup Will Be Heading To Madrid

Teams from Madrid won the two European trophies last season which means the UEFA Super Cup brings together Real and Atletico in Poland on Wednesday. The final of the Champions League was played in the Ukraine so we have another bizarre location at the behest of UEFA for one of their showpiece games.

The match this week will be missing one player who has helped Real be the champions of Europe four times in the last five years. Cristiano Ronaldo is now playing for Juventus and due to his contribution Real will miss and the physiological effect ATLETICO MADRID can win the Super Cup in 90 minutes and that outcome is 2/1 with bet365.

There is a full programme of Premier League matches at the weekend and qualifiers for the Champions League. After one match LIVERPOOL are the league leaders on goal difference and 7/2 with William Hill to be the English champions in 2018/19.

The 3rd Test between England and India runs from Saturday to next Wednesday at Trent Bridge in Nottingham but the match could be decided before the fifth and final day. England won the second match by an innings and 159 runs which is impressive against the best Test team in the world and now lead the five match series two-nil. ENGLAND are 8/15 with Betfair to take un unassailable 3-0 lead.

The highlight of the racing week is the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury on Saturday. This is a Group 2 contest for horses aged three and older over seven furlongs. The field is unknown at this stage but if the horse is declared to run on form and ratings EXERT EYE is the runner to back at 5/2 with Ladbrokes.

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Same Old Story For Manchester City

Manchester City dealt with a newly-managed Chelsea in the Community Shield and they can handle Arsenal today in the same way. It will be strange to see Arsenal not led by Arsene Wenger but the new boss Unai Emery will be under pressure for a home win. However, MANCHESTER CITY look as good as ever and they can begin the defence of the Premier League by beating Arsenal and that outcome is 5/6 with William Hill.

Liverpool begin their Premier League campaign with a home match against West Ham. They are being touted as potential champions so these are the type of matches that must be won. West Ham will be more attacked minded than last season and Liverpool’s two season openers under Jorgen Klopp have produced 13 goals. Therefore, the standout bet is OVER 3.5 GOALS at 29/25 with Betfair.

Some of the best footballers on the world will be playing in the Premier League today but the star of the show is a superstar filly who is running in a Group 1 race in France. Racing in Britain was introduced on Sunday to provide high class action on the second day of the weekend but it is ordinary fare. Other racing countries like Ireland and France stage some of their best races on the seventh day of the week.

ALPHA CENTAURI can overcome unsuitable ground and can be backed at Evens with Ladbrokes to win the 3.20pm race at Deauville. The trainer of ADVERTISE cannot see his horse being beating in the Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh (3.35pm) and the horse is 5/4 with Ladbrokes to win the race. The double pays 7/2 with that bookmaker.

Tottenham Can Lead The Premier League 

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Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

Apologies for being parochial but Manchester United are top of the Premier League but that won’t last long. They were second best for much of the 2-1 win over Leicester City at Old Trafford on Friday night. It took a questionable penalty and goal from Luke Shaw to win the points despite a late consolation goal from the visitors. Jose Mourinho’s fears look justified and United could struggle to finish in the top four. The bet to take out of the fixture is LEICESTER CITY at 6/1 to finish highest in the league without the top six.

United could lose top spot to Tottenham who have a winnable match at Newcastle in the early televised fixture. The away side would lead the table with a win by two goals or more and that is feasible. Tottenham have scored in 24 of their last 25 matches against Newcastle and that run can continue today. Newcastle and Tottenham have not splashed the cash this summer so form from last season is pertinent. TOTTENHAM earned 33 more points and can win today at 21/20 with Ladbrokes.

Great things are being expected of Wolves this season and a return to the Championship is not expected. The key for a club promoted to the top division is spending money to make the side fit for purpose. Wolves have the financial backing of wealthy owners and links with a well-connected agent. However, today’s opponents Everton do not have the wolves at the door and have spent a few quid during the close season so the bet is the DRAW at 23/10 with Betfair.

It’s the Shergar Cup at Ascot today, the team event that doesn’t quite work as racing does not lend itself to a Ryder Cup style format. The best jockey in the world can’t win on a donkey and it’s the quality of the allocated horses that will determine who wins the Cup. Meanwhile the Rose of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock (3.05pm) is a Group 3 contest over one mile, two furlongs and a bit. Horses aged three get an eight pounds allowance and that can help ZAAKI win the race at 9/4 with bet365.

Rick’s Sports Betting:  Lies, Damned Lies and Premier League Statistics – By Rick Elliott

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I was a VAR-sceptic before the World Cup but it worked well in Russia and led to more penalties and more goals. The technology is not being used during the 2018/19 Premier League season. With no significant changes to the rules and VAR not in operation we can assume there will not be much variance from the average number of goals per match in the previous season. The 380 matches in the Premier League 2017/18 season produced 1018 goals at an average of 2.68 per match.

Generally there are more goals in the second half of matches than before the break. Fatigue makes matches more open and teams struggle to keep their shape. With fewer minutes remaining the need for goals increases so teams are more likely to push forward so there is more space for the opposition. Average goals tallies are about 50% higher in the second half than in the first 45 minutes.

Match goals tallies are very consistent across the major European Leagues. Here are the averages from the main leagues in Europe in 2017/18:

England 2.68

Spain 2.70

Italy 2.68

Germany 2.80

France 2.72

Based on these figures we can safely assume that the goals average during the 2018/19 Premier League season will be between 2.6 and 2.8. The most popular team total across all the matches in the EPL is one and the next popular tally is zero. The number of occurrences of goals for a team decreases as the number of goals goes up. Hence teams scored two goals in a match more often than they scored three. The most frequent score line was one-nil and both teams scored in about 50% of the fixtures during the campaign from August to May.

The full schedule of 380 fixtures produced 173 home wins, 108 away wins and 99 draws. If you convert those numbers into probabilities here are the fractional and decimal odds:

Home Win 6/5 2.20

Away Win5/23.52

Draw 19/5 3.84

On average the home teams scored 1.53 goals and the away team found the net 1.15 times each fixture. There were 582 home goals and 436 goals scored by the visitors. Home advantage is a proven trend in the Premier League and over the course of a season its worth 0.38 goals per match. On average home teams won 1.63 points while away teams picked up 1.11 points on the road equating to a difference of 0.52 points.

So home teams scored at a rate 50% higher than their guests. Playing at your own stadium has obvious advantages such as familiarity with the surroundings, reduced travelling and the support of most of the crowd. Wins on the road against close rivals are significant and home defeats are damaging. They say you should never back a team at odds-on to win away from home but 28% of Premier League fixtures in 2017/18 were won by the away team.

The number of corners in a Premier League fixture depends on several factors including the following:

Nature of a team’s attack.

Tactics adopted at the back.

Tendency to clear lines.

Size of pitch.

Weather.

 

There were 3908 corners during the 2017/18 Premier League season at an average of 10.28 corners per match. The averages were 5.74 corners for the home team and 4.54 corners for the away team. On average home advantage was worth 1.20 corners over the full season. Similar stats can be expected over upcoming seasons while the rules remain unchanged. VAR does affect events in a match so rules changes will impact on goals and corners in the future but the status quo means statistics from previous seasons can be useful in making projections and bets in the immediate future.

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Both Teams Can Score At Old Trafford

The World Cup final was played 26 days ago so less than a month and the new Premier League season starts this evening and for the first time on a Friday night. It’s too early to talk about must win fixtures but for his mood and demeanour Jose Mourinho will be privately praying that Manchester United beat Leicester City at Old Trafford.

There is a World Cup hangover because United will be missing players who were involved deep in the tournament and some of Leicester’s key individuals won’t be fully fit after returning to the club later and less than a week of training. It’s a nightmare scenario but MANCHESTER UNITED are 9/4 with bet365 NOT to finish in the top four and qualify for the Champions League through that route.

Leicester were the most prolific team in the Premier League last season for both teams to score. In 24 of their 38 fixtures there was at least one goal in both nets. The league average is slightly greater than 50% but Leicester’s average for BTTS during the 2017/18 campaign was 63%. United have not recruited the central defender they seem to lack so may be fragile at times at the back.

Jamie Vardy could be risked if Leicester need a goal and the statistics suggest they will score but one goal might not be enough. The home team were not prolific last season but should get past a Leicester defence that could be missing the services of Harry Maguire. United can put a smile on the manager’s face but not before BOTH TEAMS SCORE and that outcome is 4/5 with Betfair.

There are six Flat meetings in Britain today but the most lucrative fixture is at Tipperary in Ireland. Coolmore sponsors the richest contest, a Listed race for horses aged two over seven and a half furlongs (6.40). The organisation are rich enough not to need presents but they own the most likely winner of the race called CHRISTMAS and the horse can be backed at 3/1 with Ladbrokes to prevail.

The Head Says It’s Liverpool’s Year – By Ian Hudson

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The Head Says It’s Liverpool’s Year – By Ian Hudson

As a Manchester United supporter it pains me to write but I believe Liverpool will win the Premier League this season. The only way to resolve this scenario is to back Liverpool to be the champions at 4/1. Their fans will be full of glee and rubbing it in but at least there will be some compensation in the form of a winning bet. Liverpool have made the signings that can help them give Manchester City a run for their money. United will struggle to qualify for the Champions League.

Liverpool can be the top dogs in English football for the first time since the 1989-90 season in the old days of the First Division. For a team that have won the title in England 18 times it seems remarkable that they have never won the Premier League. Liverpool were the champions of England 11 times from 1973 to 1990. The legacy of Bill Shankley was a team that were the dominant force in England and the European Cup. Jurgen Klopp has got the support believing again and United fans are worried.

This situation raises the issue of betting on your own team or betting on the opponents. Some fans bet with their heart and not their head and wouldn’t dream of betting against the team they support. Others believe the blow of losing a big match will be softened by some financial compensation. You have either the joy of a win for your team or you win money when they lose. You should also cover the draw after 90 minutes as you could end up with the worst of both worlds.

There is some evidence to suggest that Liverpool are a good bet regardless of any loyalties. Maybe that was not the case with Croatia at half-time against England in the World Cup semi-finals. It was all going swimmingly and football was on its way home. Nothing could possibly go wrong but there was a nagging doubt it could go pear shaped. I wasn’t too ashamed in betting against England and a hefty wager was placed on Croatia to qualify at 6/1. I’m not sure it made up for the disappointment.

If the heart is hoping Liverpool don’t win the Premier League the head is telling me they look a good bet to win more points than City. The team that finishes ahead of the champions will win the Premier League and Liverpool are the best equipped to take City’s crown. The Manchester outfit had the league won by Christmas last time and they looked as good as ever in beating Chelsea in the Community Shield.  Klopp has made some shrewd purchases during the summer break.

Liverpool have spent more money than any other Premier League club since the end of last season. Alisson is the new goalkeeper and he has been signed in a world-record deal. Three other players have arrived for a total outlay of more than £100 million. A squad that reached the Champions League final has been improved in some key areas. Liverpool were unbeaten at Anfield last season and were the only side that had the better of results in the fixtures against City. Liverpool couldn’t stop scoring goals which is the objective in a football match.

If Liverpool are in the running next spring the compensatory bet will come to mind. They are good enough to give City a fright and put United in the shade. Actually the money won’t come close to dealing with the fallout if Liverpool win the 2018/19 Premier League and I think they will. Liverpool fans will be singing football has come home.

As a Manchester United supporter it pains me to write but I believe Liverpool will win the Premier League this season. The only way to resolve this scenario is to back Liverpool to be the champions at 4/1. Their fans will be full of glee and rubbing it in but at least there will be some compensation in the form of a winning bet. Liverpool have made the signings that can help them give Manchester City a run for their money. United will struggle to qualify for the Champions League. 

Liverpool can be the top dogs in English football for the first time since the 1989-90 season in the old days of the First Division. For a team that have won the title in England 18 times it seems remarkable that they have never won the Premier League. Liverpool were the champions of England 11 times from 1973 to 1990. The legacy of Bill Shankley was a team that were the dominant force in England and the European Cup. Jurgen Klopp has got the support believing again and United fans are worried.  

This situation raises the issue of betting on your own team or betting on the opponents. Some fans bet with their heart and not their head and wouldn’t dream of betting against the team they support. Others believe the blow of losing a big match will be softened by some financial compensation. You have either the joy of a win for your team or you win money when they lose. You should also cover the draw after 90 minutes as you could end up with the worst of both worlds.

There is some evidence to suggest that Liverpool are a good bet regardless of any loyalties. Maybe that was not the case with Croatia at half-time against England in the World Cup semi-finals. It was all going swimmingly and football was on its way home. Nothing could possibly go wrong but there was a nagging doubt it could go pear shaped. I wasn’t too ashamed in betting against England and a hefty wager was placed on Croatia to qualify at 6/1. I’m not sure it made up for the disappointment. 

If the heart is hoping Liverpool don’t win the Premier League the head is telling me they look a good bet toThe Head Says It’s Liverpool’s Year – By Ian Hudson

As a Manchester United supporter it pains me to write but I believe Liverpool will win the Premier League this season. The only way to resolve this scenario is to back Liverpool to be the champions at 4/1. Their fans will be full of glee and rubbing it in but at least there will be some compensation in the form of a winning bet. Liverpool have made the signings that can help them give Manchester City a run for their money. United will struggle to qualify for the Champions League. 

Liverpool can be the top dogs in English football for the first time since the 1989-90 season in the old days of the First Division. For a team that have won the title in England 18 times it seems remarkable that they have never won the Premier League. Liverpool were the champions of England 11 times from 1973 to 1990. The legacy of Bill Shankley was a team that were the dominant force in England and the European Cup. Jurgen Klopp has got the support believing again and United fans are worried.  

This situation raises the issue of betting on your own team or betting on the opponents. Some fans bet with their heart and not their head and wouldn’t dream of betting against the team they support. Others believe the blow of losing a big match will be softened by some financial compensation. You have either the joy of a win for your team or you win money when they lose. You should also cover the draw after 90 minutes as you could end up with the worst of both worlds.

There is some evidence to suggest that Liverpool are a good bet regardless of any loyalties. Maybe that was not the case with Croatia at half-time against England in the World Cup semi-finals. It was all going swimmingly and football was on its way home. Nothing could possibly go wrong but there was a nagging doubt it could go pear shaped. I wasn’t too ashamed in betting against England and a hefty wager was placed on Croatia to qualify at 6/1. I’m not sure it made up for the disappointment. 

If the heart is hoping Liverpool don’t win the Premier League the head is telling me they look a good bet to win more points than City. The team that finishes ahead of the champions will win the Premier League and Liverpool are the best equipped to take City’s crown. The Manchester outfit had the league won by Christmas last time and they looked as good as ever in beating Chelsea in the Community Shield.  Klopp has made some shrewd purchases during the summer break.  

Liverpool have spent more money than any other Premier League club since the end of last season. Alisson is the new goalkeeper and he has been signed in a world-record deal. Three other players have arrived for a total outlay of more than £100 million. A squad that reached the Champions League final has been improved in some key areas. Liverpool were unbeaten at Anfield last season and were the only side that had the better of results in the fixtures against City. Liverpool couldn’t stop scoring goals which is the objective in a football match.   

If Liverpool are in the running next spring the compensatory bet will come to mind. They are good enough to give City a fright and put United in the shade. Actually the money won’t come close to dealing with the fallout if Liverpool win the 2018/19 Premier League and I think they will. Liverpool fans will be singing football has come home.   

 win more points than City. The team that finishes ahead of the champions will win the Premier League and Liverpool are the best equipped to take City’s crown. The Manchester outfit had the league won by Christmas last time and they looked as good as ever in beating Chelsea in the Community Shield.  Klopp has made some shrewd purchases during the summer break.  

Liverpool have spent more money than any other Premier League club since the end of last season. Alisson is the new goalkeeper and he has been signed in a world-record deal. Three other players have arrived for a total outlay of more than £100 million. A squad that reached the Champions League final has been improved in some key areas. Liverpool were unbeaten at Anfield last season and were the only side that had the better of results in the fixtures against City. Liverpool couldn’t stop scoring goals which is the objective in a football match.   

 

If Liverpool are in the running next spring the compensatory bet will come to mind. They are good enough to give City a fright and put United in the shade. Actually the money won’t come close to dealing with the fallout if Liverpool win the 2018/19 Premier League and I think they will. Liverpool fans will be singing football has come home.