It certainly would seem to be a reasonable starting point for this service – the bookmakers do not have the expertise needed to price up all the markets that are available in what is a minority sport from a betting viewpoint. When you add to that the wealth of statistical information available the case becomes more compelling and our author here claims to be making a living from spending significant time delving into the complex structure that is a cricket match.
The service operates professionally as you would expect with Betfan and an email is sent for each tip individually – not quite sure why – with a commentary on the underlying reason for the bet. Tips are also available in the members area of the website and you can get alerts using the Betfan widget as to when selections are published. This might be a good option to take as the timing is random to say the least.
A 300 point betting bank is recommended with staking advised individually up to 5 points. There are usually multiple tips for matches considered worthy and I have analysed the markets covered into 12 groups although some are composites eg Team Score after 6 or 15 overs have been amalgamated as they are essentially the same bet in different forms of the game.
If number of bets placed were a judgement criterion then the service would be near the top of the pile. In 8 months there have been over 650 advised selections although some became void due to factors such as weather or the individual not actually playing in the match. Some 65% of the bets have been in 2 markets – Best Bowler or Batsman with a further 15% covering Man of the Match.
Everything started well with the pre launch proofing pattern continuing and after a couple of months a profit in excess of 60 points had been achieved. That was the peak though with a complete reversal of fortune in March taking the service to a loss and after a recovery August again saw a poor performance and the end result is a loss of 11 points from 630 bets of which 147 (23.3%) were successful. When considered against average odds of about 9.0 the strike rate is reasonable but the combination of staking variations and winning bets tending to be at the lower end of the range has resulted in a loss.
A look at analysis will show that the main bets – Batsman and Bowler have been successful generating profit with ROIs at around 10%. The main problem has been the Man of the Match Bets which have lost 73 points with 36.5% of every £1 staked staying with the bookmaker. I would venture to suggest that this market is not really stat driven and might be one to avoid.
If you like the potential for high priced winners then the service may suit you. I am struggling to see that it can be classed as having investment potential as there is no consistency and when subscriptions are factored in the losses become significant. After an extended trial the disappointing results mean the service must be regarded as failed. I will keep going for 3 more months to see how things go but am not holding my breath.
Final Update 31/10/2018:
Things have continued to potter along with the bank hovering around the break even mark. After nearly 750 bets you would expect to be making a worthwhile return on your investment but this is not the case. The insistence on backing in the Man of the Match markets has been particularly costly over the 11 months of the review.
Not one I would be putting my cash behind and I could not recommend that you do either.