We had a good day yesterday and hope to be able to continue it today. The highlight race of the day is the Qipco1000 Guineas at 3:50, but we have plenty of races before and after this event to look into!
2:05 QIPCO SUPPORTING BRITISH RACING STAKES
The first race of the day is a 1 mile 4 furlong affair with 14 runners declared. It’s a competitive start today with a number of contenders who all have a chance at taking home the crown.
Of all the runners Stencive beat Silver Lime and Fennell Bay at Ascot last year but Fennell Bay has had two recent runs where he performed very well although in lower class races. Fennell Bay also has the benefits of being a course and distance winner who has won 25% of all his races and is better weighted today.
Stencive is a good runner but his odds are looking a bit short in this race.
Suegioo cannot be ignored and has been showing strong improvement. A recent race would have certainly helped him and with strong speed figures he can be expected to be near the front of the field.
Silver Lime and Heretic must also be considered potential threats, although coming back to race for the first time this season.
Selection: A competitive race to start the day and I will be dutching Suegioo and Fennell Bay.
2:35 QATAR BLOODSTOCK DAHLIA STAKES
Boonga Roogeta is the only runner to have raced recently, he is also a course and distance winner. However he has been running in Class 4 races and is likely to struggle with the class of horses in this race.
The three of interest to me are Chigun, Dank and Thistle Bird. All three have solid form ratings and consistent performances. They have all shown improvement and have won over 40% of their races.
Shirocco Star is the current market favourite and also looks to be a threat, but there is a slight preference for the others who have stronger figures.
There is very little to split between these runners and all have the potential in this race. Although Chigun beat Thistle Bird last year, there is no reason that this couldn’t be reversed today.
Selection: A race that would usually be left alone. The top four in the market all have potential but I am going to leave the current favourite, Shirocco Star, alone. With nothing to split the rest I am going to dutch Chigun, Dank and Thistle Bird which at current odds would produce a profit 65% should one of them win.
3:10 TIMEFORM “EUROPEAN CHAMPION TWO-YEAR-OLD” – HARBOUR WATCH HANDICAP
This six furlong handicap has 15 runners competing in it. Speed and pace are going to be all important and the runner that gets to the front first is going to have the strongest chance. It is very easy to get held up in a field of this size being run over a short distance.
This is a very competitive race with a lot of runners having shown improvement. Shropshire beat Hitchens and Hamza at Doncaster last month and is better weighted than both today. However, Hamza has been significantly improving and has been racing in slightly better company.
There is no doubt that all three of these runners stand a strong chance today and Hamza not having had a good race for 237 days is a slight concern even with the significant improvement.
Of the rest, Living Leader looks to have strong potential. Back on the flat for the second time, but this time with the fast ground that is likely to suit. He is definitely one to watch.
Selection: If any of the improving horses continue to improve today they could take this race. I will be going each-way on Shropshire who has shown recent improvement and has beaten both Hamza and Hitchens before.
3:50 QIPCO 1000 GUINEAS STAKES
The race that everyone has been waiting for today has 15 runners in it. It is run over 1 mile and is going to be exciting to watch.
It is filled with improving horses, the most notably improving are Winning Express and Sky Lantern. However they are competing against Hot Snap, What A Name and Just The Judge, all of whom have won 100% of their races so far.
Of all the runners today Hot Snap is the only course and distance winner, which gives him an edge. Combined with having raced amongst the best class in comparison to other runners and have predicted speed figures that are significantly higher than other runners, he is a strong contender today.
Winning Express, Hot Snap and Sky Lantern all met at Newmarket on the 17th April and Hot Snap beat both with Sky Lantern coming second over 2 lengths behind.
He is going to be the one to beat in this race.
Selection: I will backing Hot Snap to win.
4:25 MAKFI FUTURE STARS MAIDEN STAKES
This is a maiden race with all runners racing for the first time except for Green Door and The Smart One who both ran at Newbury on the 19th April with Green Door beating The Smart One.
Selection: I will not be betting in a race where we have almost no information to assess the runners by.
5:00 TWEENHILLS PRETTY POLLY STAKES
A smaller field with just 8 runners in it. I don’t like betting on horses that have never won or shown they can perform well in a race before. This removes Vanity Rules, Poitin and Magic Of Reality for me.
Of the rest Concise, Talent and Madam Defarge have been showing improvement. Of these Talent has shown the most speed with Concise not far behind and both are predicted to run well again today.
Concise however has had a recent run which will set him good stead for today. The winner of this race will be the one that has shown the most improvement in training and continues to progress today.
Selection: I am going to be looking for improvement from Concise and will be betting each-way on this runner.
5:35 QATAR RACING HANDICAP
Carry On Sydney and High Troja have the best form rating in this race as well as being progressive runners. However, there are concerns over their speed. Of these two Carry On Sydney looks to have the most potential in this race.
Naru has been showing some excellent speed and could certainly be a threat today. Along with Barnaby Brook he has been producing best average figures recently. The concern with these runners is that they are now racing in a much higher class race and while they should be able to compete it may require a few races for them to realize they are up against better competition.
Soviet Rock is definitely a threat in this race and is the only course and distance winner. While he has strong figures my preference remains with Carry On Sydney to get the edge in this race
Selection: I will back Carry On Sydney to win.
Leave a Reply