Horrendous weather continues to wreck havoc with the racing programme as well as everything else.
If you are affected by the floods our thoughts are with you.
Earlier this week the weights came out for the Grand National at Aintree and today I thought I would see if we can sniff some value out. The National is about the only race I would consider betting Ante Post at these days because as we get nearer the race those awful Bookies have a tendency to start shortening everything up for no apparent reason.
Firstly lets be clear a lot fewer horses fall thanks to the changes made at the great course so the race itself from a punting medium is no different from any long distance chase. The handicapper in recent years has encouraged the very top horses to run by allotting them weights which are lower than their standard handicap marks! This is at his discretion and on the surface may seem unfair but 4.5 miles is a long way to carry topweight and compressing the handicap in the topweights favour does balance that out slightly.
This years beneficiary from that is Tidal Bay who must be one of everyones favourite horses and will surely be the subject of a huge public gamble on the day. He is well in at the weights with every single horse in this race and showed last Sunday in Ireland that at 13 he is still at the top of his game. He should have won the Welsh National but for a truly awful ride from Daryl Jacob. My main concern for Tidal Bay is who will ride him, if it is Jacob he really needs to work on his upperbody strength because he is being outridden regularly on the yards horses by stronger riders. However at 16/1 with Bet365 who are going 5 places he rates a strong selection.
The other horse who flies out of the page at the weights is Merry king who is currently 40/1 with Sportingbet again who are going 5 places. He really is a dangerously well handicapped horse who could run a massive race. I can’t see that price lasting long so you could do worse than have a nibble.
Those two could give you a strong hand in 51 days time as the tapes go up on still the greatest race of them all.
We have lots of winners to find and yesterday I signed up a new informer from one of the top yards in the North, we have a big plot sorted for Saturday and plenty more in the coming weeks. Join me at Stable Line Gold and lets shake off the mid winter blues.
Back next Thursday.
Stable Line Gold