Derby week is upon us with weather we associate more with deepest mid winter and despite the official statements the ground will surely be the worst we have seen at Epsom for many a year.
This has led to an alarming drift out on the favourite Australia who this time last week was odds on for Derby Triumph but as I write he is out to 11/8 with Betvictor. That’s huge at this stage of a Derby market and shows that there are huge concerns with the ground for Australia.
I personally felt his price was incredibly short anyway as despite being told he was the best horse they have ever had he failed to win the Guineas but the price he went to for the Derby was a price he should have been for an easy Guineas win. The Bookies are of course terrified of the O’Brian yard and you could argue with good reason.
However every year we hear Aiden and now increasingly his son Joseph tell us they have the best horse they have ever had. We heard it about Camelot and George Washington and Hawkwing, some went on to true greatness others didn’t. Given that Ballydoyle is a Stallion business above all else I suggest a degree of caution when these wonder horse interviews are given. We have no proof that Australia is anything but a good horse just yet which doesn’t mean of course he isn’t the greatest ever just that we haven’t seen it. Why didn’t he win the Guineas if he is so amazing? Who knows!
On pedigree he could act on soft but this drift suggests there are at least concerns so lets wait for the day because I have a feeling some major layers sniff a chance to get him so we may see a big drift and then a decision made by the yard to back him. It’s almost as fascinating as the great race itself!!
The first race at Southwell is no Derby and in terms of poor attendance one man and his dog have just given backword because of the rain but it does contain an excellent betting opportunity. 2.20 Southwell sees Shades of Silk return after his easy victory last time. The handicapper has put him up 6 pounds but I doubt that will reign him in and he looks a smashing bet on a typical day before a Festival.
2:20 Southwell – Shades of Silk – Win Bet 11/10 (bet365)
At Stable Line Gold we have started June with a bang and aim to hit them where it hurts at Epsom.
Back next Thursday.
Stable Line Gold