The highlight of last week for me was spending three fun filled, but sadly not very profitable days at the Ayr Gold Cup meeting, however the draw bias was incredible as in big fields high drawn horses next to the stands rail had a massive advantage, normally at these big festivals if there is such a pronounced bias they over water that part of the course in the evening and the bias switches but in this instance it got worse & on Saturday the first three home in the Silver Cup were the three highest drawn, the Tricast paying £708! Ayr is a long & expensive journey for most owners & trainers, some would have been as well staying at home, hope they don’t have second thoughts about coming back.
I had an interesting conversation with an owner on Friday who was telling me he was giving his horse one last chance on Saturday before getting rid of it. He thought it might have had a problem, to my astonishment a leading newspaper tipster put this up as one of his bets of the day, on the grounds it had fallen so far below it’s previous winning mark, what utter nonsense. Yes some horses get badly handicapped and can take a while before they return to a winning mark but the main reason is usually they have some sort of problem be it physical or mental. I would always oppose these types with an in-form improver who may have gone up in the rating & weights but at least you know it’s fit & well.
Every horse has a class ceiling. Just ask yourself how many horses win in the highest class of race possible, a Group One. Very few each year. A horse must have shown form in the type of race it’s competing in today, whether it’s a Class D handicap/Group 2/Claimer etc. Some only win when they carry big weights against inferior opposition in handicaps, some can’t bridge the gap between Group 2 to Group 1. Out with their class and even receiving weight is not enough to compensate for a lack of speed. Watch out for horses who can dominate in small fields but can’t handle the hurly burly of a big sized field.
One of my favourite races of the year is run this week, the Cambridgeshire, last year we landed one of the gambles of the season with Educate & hopefully have another lined up to do the same on Saturday.
This week’s new additions to the hotlist: LORD OF THE ROCK, LUCKY JIM, TOUJOURS L’AMOUR & HIGHLAND ACCLAIM.
Tuesday Free Tip: 15:15 Newcastle INTENSE TANGO win bet 5/4 Paddy Power
Until next Tuesday, Happy Punting!
The Shrewd Tipster