We were having a discussion last week about what odds to take. I would suggest after analysing a race, you have made your decision, you’ll back what you think will be the winner of a race, take any price, a winner is a winner. DON’T!
Each horse’s true chance in a race cannot be scientifically verified. But you should be more disciplined, calculate a price you are prepared to take and don’t take anything less. You always hear people talking about value, but to me there is no way of calculating value. Value is a matter of personal opinion. A crude method of calculating the odds you are prepared to take, is to list all the potential rivals to your selection in the race. If there are only two look for approximately 3/1, if there are six look for 8s. You will soon develop your own method and become good at forecast odds. With most online & telephone firms now offering best price guaranteed I like to place my bets at 9am, if I can get on, but that’s another discussion!
I enjoyed watching the Breeder’s Cup trails at the weekend, the Classic’s shaping up to be a cracker Shared Belief kept his unbeaten record & overcame a bad trip having to come 5 wide at Santa Anita but is now only 2/1, our old pal Tonalist made it 3 out of 3 at Belmont, pity the race is not there but at the moment 10/1 about him is the better value bet. Still four weeks to go but I’m starting work on the 16 races now, year after year it proves to be my most profitable meeting on the year, not only for the win bets but the chance to play the US exotic pools such as the Pick 6 & Pick 4 and have had some amazing returns.
One of my favourite races of the year is run this week The Arc, but you shouldn’t bet just now as the draw is too crucial, anything drawn in double figures in any race at Longchamp needs to be very special to win. The ground looks like being good, so won’t suit anything wanting extremes.
This week’s new additions to the hotlist: GIANTOUCH, ITS GONNA BE ME, GHOSTING, HATHAL & ALGAITH.
Tuesday Free tip MAZAAHER 6:20 Wolverhampton win bet 9/2 with Bet365
Until next Tuesday, Happy Punting!
The Shrewd Tipster