Following on from last week’s article about betting exchanges had some interesting debates on Social Media. One particular topic, should you be scared of a drifter? Over the years I have developed a disciplined staking plan, taking the best early prices at best odds guaranteed so if horse drifts and the SP is bigger I get a better return which is great but I’m always looking to evolve and stay ahead of the field, plus I’m greedy.
Over the past week I’ve been watching the exchange markets closely. I’m finding it significant if a shortie at odds on say 4/6 drifts to slightly odds against near the off say 13/8, mostly they lose. At the other end of the scale the double figure prices can lengthen dramatically but rarely win. Also some trainers horses moving in certain directions is very significant. It’s the ones in the 4/1 to 8/1 bracket that interest me, if you’ve analysed a race and you’re prepared to take 4/1 about your selection and back it accordingly at early price then shortly before the off it drifts to double the odds 8/1 I’d suggest going back in and backing it again as it’s now tremendous value particularly if you can watch it on TV and make sure the horse is not showing any negative signs. It’s certainly an area I’m going to monitor further, if anyone has strong opinions on this or any mathematical analysis they’d like to share please get in touch.
This weeks new entries to the All-Weather hotlist:
19/11/2014 Lingfield – MAJOR JACK set too much too do, so many hard luck stories at this track, has good AW record & still one to follow.
19/11/2014 Lingfield – LUNASEA, won well, loved the way it finished, will go onto much better things.
19/11/2014 Kempton – SPECIAL CODE, finished sixth but only beaten 2 lengths, weak in betting & given considerate introduction will improve.
22/11/2104 Lingfield – QATAR ROAD was asked to make up too much ground in what proved to be a very hot race, still open to progress.
Free Tip: 12:40 Southwell – City of Angkor Wat – Win Bet 10/3 (bet365)
Back next Tuesday.
The Shrewd Tipster