September is my favourite betting month of the year, the form is well established and if it stays dry as forecast we should make big profits particularly as my two favourite meetings of the year are coming up the Doncaster St Ledger & Ayr Gold Cup festival, these are packed full of quality handicaps that I love to bet in as they are run at true pace.
I am continually updating my list of horses to follow & watch replays of every race. I used to just be interested in the final two furlongs but I now know the importance of watching the whole race. Watch every section of a race and see where a horse works hardest, it might have ran too fast too soon or has been asked to make up too much ground. Where there has been a big draw bias note horses that have not won but ran well from an impossible draw, I note these as ‘outliners’ in my list.
Look for horses that have been held up & lead close home winning by a small margin, they will only be put up a few pounds in the ratings & check it’s breeding to see if it might even improve for a step up in trip next time. My favourite bet is an improving three year old who fits this criteria.
One such is Secret Hint who runs in the 5:10 at Goodwood today, she had an impossible task over 7 furlongs here last time when drawn widest and didn’t really settle but had won a ‘hot’ race before, the second, third and fourth have all won since! Back over her best trip of 6 furlongs she’ll settle better and be hard to beat & is good value at current best price of 5/1 with Bet365 & Paddy Power.
I’ll be at Hamilton Park to see one of my horses run but the ground looks to be too soft but I’ll be there early as SALTARELLO ran a cracker over C&D last time which is a big advantage on this track & hopefully will get the day off to a great start in the first.
This week’s new additions to the hotlist: JORDAN PRINCESS, THE CORSICAN, EXAMINER, FIFTYSHADESFREED & ECCLESTON.
Had quite a few responses on social media regarding my comparison of Andy Bell to Shane Warne & Shane Macgowan, the consensus is he is a dead ringer for that other old rocker Rick Parfitt & it is uncanny, keep them coming.
Tuesday Free tip SECRET HINT 5/1 Each Way with Bet365 & Paddy Power.
Back next Tuesday.
The Shrewd Tipster