Today, we’re going to look at spotting market moves and the best way to play them. We can’t always get them right but in the long run, we should be able to turn enough low-risk trades into profit and make some good money.
The quickest way to spot a market move is to cheat! Head over to the At The Races and look at –
The first thing to note is that we want to focus on the top of the market. The first horse, Heron, although heavily gambled on, is still not at the top of the market. We ignore this as sometimes we have something called false gambles and it could be a professional moving a price on a no-hoper so that the bookie pushes the price out on a favourite.
We also want to focus on Handicaps. The money that comes in these races is usually a lot more informed than, that of a Novice or a Maiden race.
Our first qualifier from the table above would be Shades Of Mist running in the 14:40 Southwell. We now need to head over to Oddschecker and look at the market.
We can see that the horse is within the top three of the betting. We now need to check to see if the horse is still one of the most backed horses.
Shades Of Mist is the second most backed horse and is worth backing as he’ll most likely go off shorter than the current price.
Ladbrokes are going 6/1 about our horse and if you can grab some of this, all the better. Realistically, though we’re probably more likely to get a bet down at around the 9/2 4/1 mark. This is still okay and we need to get the best price possible. If you can get BOG, then even better.
Once we’ve identified our horses and placed our bets, we now need to head over to Betfair to set up the second stage of our trade.
We’re going to assume that Shades Of Mist will be going off a shorter price than the price we have taken. This is where we can lay off our original stake to secure a low risk/profitable trade.
Let’s assume that the horse will go off at 3/1 (4 in decimals) and we have £10 staked. We now place £10 on the lay side at those reduced odds.
So, if the horse wins, we collect £60 from Ladbrokes but lose £30 on Betfair. Our trade has just bagged us £30. If the horse loses, then we lose the £10 from Ladbrokes but make £9.50 back on the exchange.
There will, of course, be times when our selections drift in the market and we still need to do the same thing. If the horse wins we will actually lose some money but if it doesn’t we still get our stake back.
Have a go and make sure you paper trade first until you’re comfortable with the strategy.
I have listed below, the horses that I will be trading on today –
14:40 Southwell – Shades Of Mist
15:15 Southwell – Jasi
15:35 Wincanton – Le Boizelo
I’ll be back next week with more ways to beat the market.