It came to my attention last week as I was laying down my plan of attack for the Cheltenham Festival, that the various systems, data and statistics that I use were bringing up several selections in every race. Now this is not out of the ordinary and I often dutch my selections but what jumped out was the great odds I was getting despite backing up to five runners in one race!
So I was inspired to write out the math behind how to dutch, specifically in large, competitive handicaps.
Now the selection process is up to you and there’s plenty out there to help you with that but when it comes to the big races why not back a few and increase your chances of success?
Last Thursday saw the 4.10 Cheltenham open the betting at 7/1 the field with 22 runners set to race. I’d done my analysis and decided that there were four horses worthy of investment.
- Empire Of Dirt (IRE) 16/1
- Kings Palace (IRE) 11/1
- Sew On Target (IRE) 25/1
- Dare Me (IRE) 50/1
Four horses at big prices. I couldn’t split them though so decided to dutch them. Now there are various calculators out there that will work out your staking but I feel it’s important to understand the math behind what and why we’re betting like this.
Each horses’ odds need to be turned into a percentage.
We divide the left number of the fraction by the right and then add one.
So 16/1 becomes 17 and 11/1 becomes 12 etc.
We now get the percentage chance of each horse as follows –
Empire Of Dirt = 5.88%
Kings Palace = 8.33%
Sew On Target = 3.85%
Dare Me = 1.96%
We add these together to get a total percentage of all horses combined – 20% (rounded down)
We now take 100 and divide this by the 20 to get 5 as our decimal odds or 4/1 about the four of them.
Now I head over to here – Dutching Calculator and add in the odds in decimal format as you’ll see below –
A £10 stake returns a snippet under £50 and a profit of £40. This is of course 4/1.
Now those odds may seem a little skinny to some in such a competitive race and imagine if Dare Me had won, then our returns would be more with level stakes. However by using this method and understanding the math behind it, if we can find 1 in 4 winners on average then we will turn a profit. Or £10 profit to every £40 staked which is a 25% return on investment. Better than a bank although a little riskier!
With Aintree coming up in a couple of weeks this type of betting is worth considering in the big fields and a method I will continue to use.
I’ll be back next week with a look at more of the math behind betting and how we can use it to our advantage.