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This Weeks Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Can England Really Win The World Cup?

Over the next four days there are the 16 final group matches in the World Cup. These fixtures in any group are now played at the same time so that one team does not have an advantage of knowing the required result to qualify for the next round. The group winners play the group runners-up which gives rise to teams considering finishing second to avoid potentially strong opposition who have underachieved and qualified in second place. England will play Senegal, Colombia or Japan in the next round as the three teams could qualify and England could finish first or second. After the first two phases of matches the big market movers have been Croatia, Mexico and ENGLAND who are now 10/1 with William Hill to win the World Cup.

It’s the final group matches in Group A and Group B today and the winners of one group play the team that finishes second in the other group. Russia and Uruguay have won both their matches and meet today. Russia have the superior goal difference by five goals which means a DRAW will suffice to win the group and that outcome is 21/10 with Betfair. Spain and Portugal are big favourites to beat weaker opposition in Group B which means goal difference will decide who wins the group. They are level in that respect but PORTUGAL have the easier fixture so can win Group B at 11/8 with Ladbrokes.

Royal Ascot is the richest and most prestigious Flat meeting in Britain and last week was a great occasion with some outstanding performances on the track. The high class racing action continues this week with the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle and Irish Derby at the Curragh. SAXON WARRIOR (1/2 with Paddy Power) is looking to get his career on track in the latter race after a disappointing run in the Epsom version. There is a mixture of Flat, jumps and All-Weather racing during the week including five meetings today. Kilbeggan stages a handicap hurdle at 7.30pm, the richest race of the day, and BARGY LADY is the horse to back at 10/3 with Betfair.

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Is The Heart Ruling The Head?

The last World Cups in which England won their first two group matches were 1982 and 2006. Twelve years ago England won both opening fixtures without conceding a goal. England have never won a match in the European Championships or World Cup by more than four goals. It’s always a struggle against even the relatively poor opponents but that could all change against Panama today. England persevered and finally got the winner against Tunisia but there could be less drama today. Panama have played opponents from Europe 10 times and never won a match. ENGLAND can win today’s match 4-0 and that outcome is 10/1 with William Hill.

The last player to score for England in their first two matches in the World Cup was Ron Flowers in 1982. Harry Kane has scored in his last four internationals and that run can continue against Panama. He hardly had a kick against Tunisia but scored twice. Instinct took him to the positions from where he could find the net and the ball ran for England. They can’t miss clear chances against a weaker and Panama and KANE is 9/1 with Paddy Power to score three goals or more. The other matches between Japan and Senegal and Poland and Colombia are difficult to call and the DRAW DOUBLE pays 9/1 with Ladbrokes.

Pontefract stages a decent Flat meeting and the richest race of the day is the Listed race for fillies at 3.30pm. Titi Mafki has the form and ratings to win the contest over one mile and four furlongs. However, ALWAYSANDFOREVER is a progressive horse who has won in handicaps and now goes up a level. Ridden by Ryan Moore the horse can prevail at 7/4 with Betfair.

England And Kane Are The Big Movers In World Cup Betting – By Rick Elliott

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The first phase of the World Cup has now been completed and all 32 teams have played one match. The tournament has not gone totally to form and Mexico have been the biggest overachievers. One of the most significant betting moves has been on England to win the World Cup and Harry Kane to be the top scorer. The teams from South America have struggled more than the European sides but Brazil are still the favourites to win the World Cup for the sixth time.

The best match in the first week of the tournament was the Iberian derby in which Spain and Portugal drew three-all. In the context of potential winners Spain’s performance stood out. They controlled large parts of the match and it was only the late Cristiano Ronaldo free-kick that prevented Spain picking up three points. The 2010 world champions are still strong in all parts of the pitch and in Diego Costa they have one of the most effective strikers in the world.

Despite a howler against Portugal David De Gea is still the best keeper in the game. The defence is full of experience and know-how, there is creativity in midfield and Costa is the main man up front.  Spain have played the toughest match in the group and look capable of winning the other two fixtures, against Iran and Morocco. They are now the shortest priced European team in outright betting in the World Cup. France and Germany did nothing special in their first matches.

England are now sixth in the betting and bookmakers believe they are more likely to win the World Cup than Portugal and Argentina. The late winning goal against Tunisia was crucial and if the match had ended in a draw it would have been a case of the old failings emerging at just the wrong time. Despite creating several clear openings in the first half and missing out on clear penalties despite VAR the second half performance did not inspire much confidence but then Kane scored.

Tunisia are a stronger team than Panama and took every advantage going against England while staying within the law. Panama should be an easier nut to crack and three more points and at least another goal from Kane is the most likely outcome of England’s second match in Group G. The third fixture against Belgium should decide the group and there is very little between the sides but this is a match England can win and progress as winners of the group.

England’s potential opponents in the last 16 will come from Group H. The winners of one group play the runners-up from another group. The projection was a match against Poland or Colombia but they were beaten by Senegal and Japan which has made the group wide open and difficult to fall. If England do win the group they could play Japan or Senegal in the first knockout round. Germany were expected to be awaiting in the quarter-finals but it could now be Mexico.

Mexico were outstanding against Germany, especially in the first half. They were value for a bigger lead than by one goal and Germany had very few clear chances after the break. Mexico have been eliminated at the first knockout stage in the last six World Cups. They have only ever progressed to the third round at World Cups in Mexico. However, it could be different this time and Mexico are dark horses to win the World Cup for the first time.

The heart might be ruling the head but England have a good opportunity to win the World Cup and if it happens Kane will have scored lots of goals.

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Can England And King Harry Do It? 

One of the biggest market moves related to the World Cup is England to win the tournament and Harry Kane to be the top scorer. You could have backed this combination at 80/1 before the match with Tunisia and not much shorter as the match went into injury time. The winning goal meant Kane’s tally was two and England had won their opening match in a tournament for the first time since the World Cup of 2006. The winner/top scorer combined odds now stand at 25/1 with William Hill for ENGLAND AND KANE. It could just happen!

The Portugal and Cristiano Ronaldo combo is a bigger price but that might not be the case after today’s fixture against Morocco in Group B. Portugal were second best against Spain in the first match but Ronaldo inspired his country to a 3-3 draw. Morocco lost to Iran thanks to a very late own goal in a match of poor quality. Ronaldo makes his side tick but they are more than a one man outfit and PORTUGAL should beat Morocco and that outcome is 4/6 with Ladbrokes.

A Portugal win would boost a treble on today’s favourites by 67% and it’s a tempting wager. Portugal may have been flattered by the score against Spain but they have enough to beat Morocco. Surely Spain will be too strong for Iran and Uruguay are in a different league to Saudi Arabia. It’s the seventh day of the World Cup and all the favourites have won on only one day. However, the three underdogs look vulnerable which means the Portugal, Uruguay and Spain TREBLE is the bet at with 13/10 with Coral.

It’s the second day of Royal Ascot and the banker of the day is Cracksman in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes (4.20pm). The horse just scrapped home in the Coronation Cup at Epsom despite not acting on the track and having a bang on the head leaving the stalls. Cracksman won over the course and distance in the Champions Stakes at Ascot in October and that is the best form in the race. CRACKSMAN must be backed at 8/13 with Betfair.

Tuesday’s Horses In Focus – By Unity Racing Investments

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Well what a treat of sport we have with the world cup and Royal Ascot in the same week and I’m looking forward to getting stuck in to today’s Ascot card. I did have small bet on England yesterday taking 9/1 for a Kane headed goal. So the injury time winner was a double celebration.

Right let’s get straight into it here.

Ascot 2-30 Group 1 (Class 1) 8f – LIGHTENING SPEAR at 10/1 would probably be a solid each way selection and is a better price than 7/2 against Rhododendron who beat him by a short head. SO BELOVED 100/1 looks a huge price and comes out well on our ratings despite having plenty to find at the weights.

Ascot 3-05 Group 2 (Class 1) 6f – INDIGO BALANCE at 14/1 is the horse for us here I was taken with the run at the Curragh – Slowly away stayed on well to win going away. A really nice-looking horse and full brother to a group 2 winner. I would play each way to spread the risk.

Ascot 3-40 Group 1 (Class 1) 5f – BATTASH at 5/2 is the one for me here. Totally demolished a group 1 field in Chantilly last year and his win at Haydock has been franked. Hopefully Lady Aurillia will run out of juice setting it up nicely for the selection.

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This Weeks Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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It Could Be All Over For England By Sunday

It’s the best Flat meeting in the world this week with five days of top class racing and fashion from Royal Ascot. There is also some mickey mouse football tournament taking place in Russia. I’ll switch off the television and internet about 7 o’clock this evening and start looking at the form for tomorrow’s racing at Ascot. Actually that’s not entirely true because England are playing their most important match for two years against Tunisia in the World Cup.

There have been 11 matches so far in the World Cup and in seven of those the winning team has not conceded a goal. Spain and Portugal produced a thriller but both conceded three goals. The best all-round performance to date was Mexico’s win over Germany. The final winning margin could have been more than one goal and MEXICO are now 80/1 with Betfair to win the World Cup. Interestingly we have not seen a goalless draw in Russia so hopefully England are not involved in the first such outcome tonight.

The shape of the draw has potentially changed due to Germany’s defeat and second place is now probably their best finishing position in the group. England lost their first two group matches in the 2014 World Cup and were out of the competition after 8 days. They play Tunisia tonight and Panama on Sunday and if the unthinkable two defeats transpire England will be considering the plane home after one day less.

Surely it will be different this time and England win the opening match in a tournament for the first time since the 2006 World. Only Saudi Arabia are a bigger price than Tunisia and Panama to win the World Cup so the draw could not have been better. ENGLAND TO WIN TO NIL is 21/20 with Ladbrokes.

England play Australia in the 3rd ODI tomorrow on the first day of Royal Ascot. They lead 2-0 in the series and can be backed at 8/15 with William Hill to win the third match. There are eight Group 1 races at Ascot and 18 Group races in total. Its difficult to identify a banker but in the Gold Cup on Thursday STRADIVARIUS can be backed at 2/1 with Coral.

England – Bringing Moneyball To Cricket – By Dave Owens

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The appointment of Ed Smith to national selector of the England team promises to see a new and revolutionary way to which the national side will select its teams in future. Smith took over at the 11th hour before the two-test series against Pakistan and made a couple of surprise inclusions in the return of Jos Buttler who was as at the time of selection in India smashing bowling to all parts in 20 over cricket in the IPL and by his own admission had no thought in his mind that he would be play a test match any time soon. The other selection of not was the drafting in of 20-year-old spinner Dom Bess with only 16 first class games to his name. Both selections had varying degrees of success with Buttler looking excellent on his return to the fold and Bess showing promise if not the full package yet for test cricket.

Its now after a couple of games and months into his tenure that we could well see Ed Smiths stamp on the side. For quite some time England have struggled in test match cricket, especially away from home – where victories have been scarce and performances not up to scratch. Smith had been brought into shake up the selection process of the side with a more analytics approach to selection with cricketer’s numbers crunched on very specific fields to determine a player’s value such as how batsman have faired on difficult batting wickets and a higher class of bowling as well as bowlers who have performed on flat pitch’s and against heavy scoring batsman in county cricket.

The result of which is a mirroring of the famous book “Moneyball” which documented the true story of the baseball team the Oakland Athletics 2002 season. The story was based on the management team questioning conventional baseball wisdom and going on the “look” of a player on the field and his very basic and simple baseball figures in hitting home runs and striking a batsman out and concentrating on very specific and (in the Oakland’s opinion) incredibly underrated attributes such as the ability to get a walk to first base (and not get out), pitchers records against a very specific style of hitter despite his overall record and many areas that baseball observers and “experts” has chosen to ignore for decades.

This allowed a team with relatively no budget and money to compete and beat the very best and richest baseball teams out there with superior knowledge of data and how to view and value a player who would not be deemed a player of merit or worth in the usual way things were viewed.

England’s record in 50 and 20 over cricket has been very strong in recent years and it will be interesting to see weather this approach will apply to these formats where there has been a suggestion of “it’s not broke, don’t fix it”. It’s in the test arena that could well see most dramatic changes and surprises and will certainly make test sides announcements having more interest than usual to see just what England’s new style selection style throws up.

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England Are Good Enough To Win Group G – By Rick Elliott

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Tunisia and Panama are the 30th and 31st biggest price to win the World Cup so England could not have had an easier draw. Belgium are the fourth team in Group G and the match with England should decide who wins the group. England will probably play Senegal or Poland in the round of the last 16 which is a winnable tie. If England progress their opponents in the quarter-finals could be Germany. The last 8 is the favourite in the England stage of elimination betting.

England have not won their first match in a tournament since beating Paraguay at the 2006 World Cup. They have struggled against so called inferior opposition and paid for not winning the group with tough opponents in the last 16 or quarter-finals. The route to the final in the knockout stages begins with a match that England can win but Germany await in the next round. England have been involved in three penalty shootouts in the World Cup and lost the lot. However, they must finish in the top two in the Group first.

If England finish below Tunisia or Panama in Group G it would be a bigger embarrassment than losing to Iceland at Euro 2016. On world rankings and odds these are matches England must win and by a few goals. The opening two fixtures give England a great opportunity to score some goals and build momentum and confidence.  The last thing they need is to drop points which makes the meeting with Belgium a must win match. The third game should decide the group winners and opponents in the next round. A win against Belgium would make a statement.

England played Italy and Uruguay in their opening two group fixtures in Brazil in 2014 and did not pick up a point. They were out of the competition after eight days and all the excitement and optimism disappeared. The turgid goalless draw against Costa Rica was irrelevant for England but their opponents did enough to win the group as the outsider of four. England are second favourites to win their section this time but it would be a boost to pick up maximum points.

There is a general lack of quality in the Panama and Tunisia squads. Panama’s main tactic is long throws into the box and England were caught out by Iceland in this way. Panama are a physical side and protecting their goal will be the objective. Several Tunisia squad members play in France’s Ligue 1 and the domestic league is one of the strongest in Africa. Tunisia will be a tougher nut to crack than Panama but anything less than six points would not be good enough even if England are not out.

Belgium have 10 Premier League players in their squad and only one of their 23 plays in the Belgian League. Any team that can call upon Eden Hazard’s dribbling and Kevin de Bruyne’s passing must have a chance. The so called golden generation has not yet fulfilled their potential and they are now all getting on but still in their prime. The team can be unbalanced and the coach, Roberto Martinez, is unproven as an international boss. Despite the obvious threats England can beat Belgium.

England send a relatively young squad to the World Cup. Gary Cahill has played most internationals and he has 59 caps. The three goalkeepers have played for England 10 times in total and the midfield lacks creativity. However, the front players can compensate for many shortcomings elsewhere. England can win Group G and then the real fun will begin because matches could go to penalties.

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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England Are Better Than Australia At Football And ODI Cricket

England and Australia are in the football World Cup. The former will do well to progress beyond the quarter-finals while the latter are also-rans who will struggle to get out of a group that also involves France, Peru and Denmark. Things are somewhat different in the world of one day cricket. England are number one in the world rankings and Australia are the world champions in this form of the game. Both sides have a much better chance of being the world champions in cricket than football in the next respective World Cups. ENGLAND are 16/1 with William Hill to win the football version and AUSTRALIA can be backed at 1000/1 with Coral.

England and Australia are in the opposite sides of the draw in the World Cup and they can only meet in the 3rd/4th place playoff match or final. Today the nations meet at The Oval in the first of five One Day Internationals that take place before the end of June. There are no Ashes Tests this summer but five ODI’s should fill the grounds and keep the money flowing. In theory any sporting contest between England and Australia means something but there are now so many competitions and matches in the cricket calendar that the scarcity value of the clash has gone.  England lost to another old enemy in Scotland in a ODI last Sunday but won’t be so complacent today.

England have beaten Australia in seven of their last 10 meetings in 50 overs matches with a white ball. The middle order collapsed against Scotland but the lower order batsman bailed out the team. England’s batting depth has taken the side to the pinnacle of the cricket one day format. One shock defeat does not negate the progress made in recent years. ENGLAND are the team to back at 4/7 with Ladbrokes.

There is too much racing today with five Flat meetings taking place in Britain and they race over jumps at Punchestown in Ireland. It really is the calm before the storm of Royal Ascot next week which is the best Flat meeting in the world but not quite as good as the Cheltenham Festival. There are three lucrative handicaps at Chelmsford City on the All-Weather today and the standout bet is in the 4.20pm contest. BOSHAM races of a winnable mark so is the nap at 9/2 with Betfair.

This Weeks Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Will It Be Heartache Or Glory For England?

There’s not much happening in the sports betting world this week so to fill this space we will have to mention some football matches starting in Russia towards the end of the week. In fact the 2018 World Cup will be the biggest sports event ever in terms of betting interest. Kick-off times in the UK mean in-play betting will be huge for the 64 matches being shown live on ITV or BBC from this Thursday until July 15th.

If England do well it will become the biggest betting bonanza ever. With three or four matches each day in the group stages the treble or accumulator on the favourites will be popular bets. However, about one third of fixtures in the World Cup end as draws which bookies love. In any treble there is usually one favourite that does not win. ENGLAND are currently 16/1 with William Hill to win the World Cup.

If you are backing a player to score most goals please be aware that the Golden Boot and leading scorer markets are not the same thing. If two or more players score the same number of goals the number of assists will determine who wins the Golden Boot which is a win only market. It’s not clear who wins the award if there is a tie for goals and assists. Dead heat rules apply in the top scorer market if two or more players finish on the same tally so this is an each-way market. HARRY KANE is 16/1 with Ladbrokes to be the leading scorer in the World Cup.

The international cricket season is now getting ridiculous and it has to fit in with the T20 franchise tournaments which are lucrative for the best white ball players. In a non-Ashes summer it seems strange that England play five One Day Internationals at home against Australia during June. ENGLAND are slight favourites to win the first match at the Oval on Wednesday. The second ODI takes place in Cardiff this Saturday.

In terms of quality it’s a quiet week for racing with a mixture of Flat meetings, All-Weather fixtures and summer jumps. It’s the calm before the storm of Royal Ascot which takes place from Tuesday to Saturday next week. Cork in Ireland stages a decent meeting this Sunday but all roads lead to Ascot and the best Flat meeting in the world. STRADIVARIUS is 9/4 with Coral to win the Gold Cup a week on Thursday.