My blog

Just another WordPress site

Blaklion Can Win The “Whitbread” At Sandown – By Ian Hudson

By Leave a Comment

Sandown stages the last day of the jumps season on Saturday and the new season begins on Monday even though the first meeting is not until next Saturday. Richard Johnson and Nicky Henderson will be honoured as the leading jockey and trainer and everyone goes back to zero at the start of next week. The highlight of the season finale is the “Whitbread” which is now called the bet365 Gold Cup. Two unlucky runners in the Grand National and Scottish version are leading contenders.

Blaklion was brought down at the first fence of the National while The Young Master fell at the same obstacle at Ayr last Saturday. Neither horse had a run even though they continued rider less. Both horses have top class form from earlier in their careers and could be well in at the weights. The bet365 chase is run over three miles five furlongs which is two laps of Sandown and there are 24 fences. Horses aged five and older are eligible for this handicap chase but experience of the track is important. There are seven fences down the back straight and getting in to a rhythm is paramount.

Four horses have won the race twice but there have been no 3-times winners. The leading jockey and trainer have not won the race is 1984. The race was first run in 1957 and it was the first race to be sponsored. A five-year-old has not prevailed in the history of the race and only two horses aged six have won it. Since 2000 only four winners have carried 11 stone or more and twice in the last three years the winner carried the minimum weight of 10 stone. Richard Johnson, Ruby Walsh and AP McCoy have had two wins since 2000 and are the leading jockeys of the current era.

Blaklion was fancied for this year’s National, having finished fourth in the race last year. It was unfortunate to be brought down at the first fence and nobody knows what might have been. Blaklion was proven over the fences and is a Grade 1 chase winner so could have carried the weight. Saturday’s chase should be in his comfort zone and Blaklion can win off top weight and The Young Master can make the frame. The horse unshipped the jockey right at the beginning of the Scottish National. The prizes are handed out, the season ends and the new season begins immediately.

Punchestown stages the fifth and final day of their festival on Saturday and it’s the last day of the jumps season in Ireland. Grand National winning jockey Dave Russell will be crowned the champion jockey but the trainer’s title is still up for grabs. Going in to the third day of Punchestown on Thursday Willie Mullins had forged ahead after a six-timer the previous day. He had a strong hand over the rest of the meeting but the championship might go down to the wire and the last day of the season. The Punchestown Champion Hurdle could be the decider.

Samcro has never raced out of novice company but that could all change in the Grade 1 race that carries €275,000 in prize money. The championship could come down to one single race and Mullins could have up to five runners. The trainer will throw some big guns at the race if the title is on the line. Samcro has done nothing wrong and deserves a crack at the Champion. The horse can win at the highest level and Elliott can be the leading trainer in Ireland for the first time.

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

By Leave a Comment

Blaklion Is The National Bet

The Grand National is the people’s race and the one day in the year when the man on the street goes to the races. It is the longest race in the calendar and still the ultimate test for horse and rider. The fences are more forgiving and in recent years there has been a reduction in the number of horses that don’t get round. In good ground it’s a tough assignment to finish but the degree of difficulty increase when the going is soft. There has been plenty of rain in the Aintree area so there will be a heavy ground National. That means more horses will be pulled up and a low number of finishers. The tip for the race is BLAKLION at 14/1.

The novices’ chase at 3.00 is a good opportunity for Petit Mouchoir. He is by some distance the best horse in the field on form over hurdles and fences. The tactics were wrong at Cheltenham where Footpad took advantage and Petit Mouchoir finished third. That was still a reasonable effort in the context of today’s race so PETIT MOUCHOIR should be backed at 8/15 with Ladbrokes. The stayers’ hurdle gives SAM SPINNER a chance to make up for not winning at Cheltenham and the best price is 6/4 with bet365. It’s then the greatest race in the world.

There are three live matches in the Premier League today so it will be a betting bonanza. Liverpool begin their home fixture with Bournemouth at 5.30 which is 15 minutes after the Grand National starting time. The race is the most watched in the world so you would hope for a good race with no casualties. There could be less than 10 finishers but hopefully one of those will be Blaklion and the horse will be the first past the finishing post.

This Weeks Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

By Leave a Comment

Grand National And Champions League This Week 

It’s a massive week for sports betting with turnover expected to reach record levels for the midweek Champions League quarter-finals and the Grand National on Saturday. There are regular tournaments for tennis and golf and it could turn out to be a bookies benefit or a bonanza for punters. Bookmakers go 10/1 the field for the National and the most famous race in the world looks the most open for a number of years.

The Grand National is the highlight and culmination of the Grand National meeting at Aintree from Thursday to Saturday. This year there is a four week gap between the Cheltenham Festival and Aintree so its feasible for horses to run at both meetings. Aintree is less intense than Cheltenham but the racing is just as good and there is the cherry on top of the National on Saturday for which BLAKLION is 12/1 with Betfair.

There are four Grade 1 races at Aintree on Thursday and even that does not happen at Cheltenham. The quality of the racing and facilities has improved massively over the last 20 years. Ladies Day has its special attractions and is Liverpool’s day out but overall the three day meeting offers high class sport. Buveur D’Air, Might Bite and Altior could be running this week and they are superstars of the jumping game.

The four Champions League quarter-finals are decided with two fixtures on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Manchester City are 3-0 down to Liverpool after the first leg at Anfield and will need something special to progress. Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Barcelona are favourites to join one of the English clubs in the semi-finals. BAYERN MUNICH are 3/1 with William Hill to win the Champions League.

The racing week begins today with jumps meetings at Ludlow, Wincanton and Kempton and they race on the All-Weather at Wolverhampton. The prize money at the small country Ludlow track is decent for a Monday and the Handicap Chase at 3.55 is worth over £13,000 to the winner. SPACE ODITY carries top weight but enters calculations on past form and can be backed at 7/2 with Ladbrokes.

Capri Can Win At Naas On Saturday – By Ian Hudson

By Leave a Comment

The jumps season is now in that lull between the Cheltenham Festival and Grand National and the Flat has not begun in earnest. The racing on Saturday is ordinary but it would be good to win a few bob to bolster your betting bank ahead of Aintree’s biggest meeting of the season. Naas stages a decent Flat card on Sunday which features two Group 3 contests and the best horse in action is Capri in the Alleged Stakes. The horse is trained by Aidan O’Brien and has in impeccable pedigree.

Britain’s Flat season begins like a damp squib. The Lincoln at Doncaster is a lucrative mile handicap and the first leg of the Spring Double. Only one jockey has won the Lincoln and the second leg, the National. One race is run over eight furlongs on the level while the other is the longest race in the calendar. Without researching both races I think it’s safe to assume no horse has run in both races. Graham Lee won the Grand National in 2004 and he now rides on the Flat so he could win both races.

There is a four week gap between Cheltenham and Aintree this year which means more horses can take up engagements at both meetings. Gold Cup winner Native River won’t run until next season but Buveur D’Air, Altior and Might Bite appear in ante post betting for Grade 1 races at Aintree. Total Recall is vying for favouritism with Blaklion in National betting. The horse ran well in the Cheltenham Gold Cup for most of the race before falling at the third last. There was no chance of beating the first two but Total Recall could have made the frame.

In the past Cheltenham form did not always translate to similar races at Aintree. The tracks are like chalk and cheese, with Cheltenham undulating and galloping and Aintree flat and tight. Many horses who have run well at the festival have run below their true form less than a month later at Aintree. Due to the date of Easter the National meeting is later in April than usual but more Cheltenham horses could run.

The Flat season in Ireland starts with more meaningful races than in Britain. Ireland’s major National Hunt meeting is at Punchestown at the end of the month but there are Group races on the Flat in the meantime. It’s rare for horses to run at three major spring jumps festivals so it was a huge achievement for On The Fringe to win at all three in two consecutive years, in 2015 and 2016. Sprinter Sacre did the treble in 2013. Potentially, Buveur D’Air and Altior could do same this season.

Capri is the standout horse at Naas on Sunday and should win the Alleged Stakes (4.20). The race is run over 10 furlongs, horses aged four and older are eligible and Group winners have a penalty. Capri won the St Leger at Doncaster last September and that race is a Group 1 so the horse carries the maximum penalty. Capri ran poorly in the Arc but is back in his comfort zone at Naas where a win is on the cards ahead of a potentially lucrative remainder of the season.

Saturday’s Racing Preview – By Ian Hudson

By Leave a Comment

Blaklion is the favourite for the Grand National and the horse has a final prep race for the most famous steeplechase in the world at Haydock Park. The track was a popular destination for horses entered for Aintree because the nature of the fences. The drops at Haydock were similar to the obstacles on the National course but safety modifications mean both sets of fences have become more conventional.

Despite less severe drops and more forgiving material the fences in the Grand National look different to fences on park courses. Some horses can handle the track while others find it difficult to adapt. Blaklion is in the former group and the horse seems to relish the unusual jumps. He will have to complete the course and win at Haydock and prove to be a worthy favourite to justify market support for the National. A poor run could see Blaklion drift in the betting for the famous race.

The Haydock trial is a handicap chase over more than three and a half miles. It will be a test of stamina and jumping and that’s why the contest will be key for Blaklion and other National horses. After a great deal of rain the going should be soft or heavy and this is the major difference in conditions that prevail for the National. The race is usually run on good ground but a wet March could bring soft going into the equation.

Blaklion finished fourth in the National last year when looking like the most likely winner. The jockey went for home about a mile out but was pegged back by One For Arthur approaching the second last. The trainer has suggested the horse will be held up this year after being allocated a weight of 11 stone six pounds. The weights could rise if horses above Blaklion in the weights are withdrawn so an exceptional weight-carrying effort will be required to win the National. Five of the last 10 winners carried 11 stone or more and Many Clouds won the race in 2015 off 11-09.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, who trains Blaklion, has said the horse jumps like Red Rum. The three time National winner completed the National five times, jumping 150 fences in total without the semblance of an error. Blaklion went back to Aintree in December and won the Becher Chase over the National fences. Currently quoted at 10/1 for the big race that price will go if Blaklion as expected runs well at Haydock. The horse is a former winner of the RSA Chase so is a graded runner competing in a handicap so can carry the weight.

There are nine declared runners which is just about right for each-way betting. Bookmakers will settle bets at one quarter for the first three places so there could be some value lurking at the bottom of the card. Mysteree is not hugely behind the favourite on ratings and is four times the price. Of just 10 stone three pounds Mysteree could get in the mix and make the payout places.

On ratings Blaklion has a little to find with Vieux Lion Rouge. That horse won the Haydock race last year so is proven over course and distance. Blaklion would have been tested by Vieux Lion Rouge but the horse has not been declared to run. The biggest threat could come from The Dutchman and the horses are closely matched. However, Blaklion is a classier animal so can win the trial and then the main event.

There’s Been A Whisper For The Grand National – By Ian Hudson

By Leave a Comment

Some bookmakers are offering non-runner no bet for all 28 races at the Cheltenham Festival but that concession is being offered nowhere for the Grand National. Ante post rules apply for the most famous race in the world which means you lose your stake if a backed horse does not run. At this stage of the season there are over 100 potential runners so it’s scandalous that all you can get is one quarter the odds for the first four places but even on those terms Whisper looks a decent bet at 33/1.

The horse’s trainer, Nick Henderson, has declared that the National is the horse’s target even though the Cheltenham Gold Cup is a viable alternative. Whisper was only narrowly beaten by stable mate Might Bite in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham the bare result does not tell the full story. Might Bite veered off course after the last and Whisper made up many lengths only to be overhauled near the line.

However, if Might Bite had run straight to the line the horse would have beaten Whisper by possibly 20 lengths. There is no way Whisper could reverse the form off the same level weights in the Gold Cup. The only way Whisper could win the race was if Might Bite did not complete the course or took the scenic route to the line again. Whisper still has several lengths to make up on some of the other leading contenders so the focus for the horse is the Grand National which Henderson has never won.

The National is a handicap so all the entries are allocated a weight based on past performances and collateral form. Whisper would be at the top of the weights and may be given an impossible task. However, the horse is a Grade 1 winner running in a handicap and could have the class to prevail. Staying the extended four miles two furlongs trip could be an issue but few horses are proven over this distance. One For Arthur won the race last year so clearly can stay.

The last horse to win back-to-back Nationals was Red Rum in 1973 and 1974. Winners are usually given a hike in the weights and the race is demanding and can cause a horse lasting damage. Twelve months on from winning the race for the first time there are too many negatives and that’s why Red Rum was a special horse and the only three-time winner of the National from five starts. One For Arthur is no Red Rum so the double is unlikely and other horses are preferred.

The Last Samuri seemingly had the race in the bag before being passed on the run-in by Rule The World in 2016. The horse jumped around again last year but faded to finish 16th. Given a reasonable weight The Last Samurai should be on the short list based on experience of the unique fences. Native River was third in the Gold Cup so could be weighted out of the race while Minella Rocco finished second in the same race at Cheltenham last March.

Blaklion looked like the winner of the National until approaching the second last in 2017. The horse was foot perfect at the fences and put in an excellent round of jumping when winning the Becher Chase over the National fences in December. Weight will be a key factor but given a reasonable mark Blaklion has a great chance of winning the race. However, Whisper is a better horse though the weights have not been announced but at 33/1 you can have a small bet which could generate a big return.

Blaklion And Fox Norton Can Win Key Trials – By Rick Elliott

By Leave a Comment

Blaklion looked the most likely winner of the Grand National during this year’s race but faded over the closing stages to finish fourth. The horse is back at Aintree for the Becher Chase which he can win and then go three better in the steeplechase that matters most next spring.  Blaklion is trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies who trained the winner of the National in 1998 (Earth Summit) and 2002 (Bindaree).

In the absence of Douvan Fox Norton is the odds-on favourite to win the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown. This is a Grade 1 contest over just under two miles and often identifies one of the best chasers at around two miles. Fox Norton has by far the best form in a small field and can put down a marker for the Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival next March by winning at Sandown with something in hand.

Twiston-Davies believes Blaklion is the horse to beat in the Becher Chase which has attracted 16 runners. It is a handicap so bookmakers will settle each-way bets at one quarter the odds for the first four places but some may offer a fifth place leading up to the race. Blaklion is a relatively short price for this type of race but the trainer is confident the horse can deliver. He said in the Racing Post this week:

“Blaklion’s form at Wetherby (when second behind Bristol De Mai) looks good and with a clear run on Saturday I’ll be very excited. The handicapper hasn’t been too hard on him and everything looks perfect. He’s a worthy favourite”.

Trainers don’t always make good tipsters but you can’t ask for a better endorsement of Blaklion’s credentials for this National trial. The horse went too soon this year and didn’t quite stay the trip. One For Arthur stayed on doggedly but Blaklion could reverse the placings in April if held up a bit longer. Three horses have won the Becher Chase and Grand National and Blaklion can embark on becoming the fourth this weekend over three miles and two furlongs at Aintree.

 

Fox Norton is the best horse in the Tingle Creek Chase but the race has been devalued because Douvan and Un De Sceaux are not taking part. The Willie Mullins trained horses are not making the journey from Ireland and this looks like a penalty kick for Fox Norton. The horse was second behind Special Tiara at the Festival but then won impressively at the other spring festivals at Aintree and Punchestown. Fox Norton has plenty in hand on ratings and cannot be opposed.

For various reasons the Mullins horses won’t be in opposition. The trainer was not happy with Douvan after a piece of work this week and Un De Sceaux will take up an alternative engagement in Ireland. Charbel is an interesting runner in Fox Norton’s race. The horse was going as well as Altior when falling two out in the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham. Altior won the race which suggests Charbel showed sharp form despite not completing the race. However, Fox Norton looks a good thing.

The two feature races this Saturday are key trials for huge races in the spring. It could be a case of both winners in Blaklion and Fox Norton winning the dress rehearsal and the main event because they are leading contenders for the 2018 Grand National and Champion Chase. Saturday will be informative in the context of bigger races to come.

Simon Holden Racing Club – By Simon Holden

By Leave a Comment

There is surely no finer sight in racing than horses streaming over the National fences and today for one of only two days of the year we get to witness it in the Becher Chase. This has become a Grand National trial but also a great race in its own right and at 1.30 16 go to post to try their luck.

Among them is last years winner and VIEUX LION ROUGE and this bold jumper can make it 2 in a row and win it again. A best priced 8/1 with BetBright he was seen reappearing in the Charlie Hall where he turned up not exactly as fit as a flea. This was clearly a warm up for today and he ran ok before fading. He has to turn the form round with BLACKLION who beat him that day in what is not being called the battle of the Lions.

With his extra fitness and the fact he absolutely loves it round here he can turn that form round and I am having a win bet at 8/1. Tom Scu takes the ride and he rides this place as well as anybody and the softer the ground the better.

We have three other big gambles today and you can still get involved so join me at Aintree and Sandown.

CLICK HERE To Join Me For Just £9.99 For The Next 28 Days!

Blaklion Has The Weight To Win Another National For Twiston-Davies  – By Rick Elliott

By Leave a Comment

Blaklion has been my headline tip for the Grand National for some time so the front cover story in Wednesday’s Racing Post was good and bad news. The horse’s jockey says “he wouldn’t swap Blaklion for anything” which is a positive but the price may well shorten and I haven’t backed the horse yet in the ante post market. Saphir De Rheu ran a great trial in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and is also part of my National betting portfolio and at a much bigger price Vicente is also on the short list.

In recent years the National has evolved into a high-class long distance limited handicap chase. Safety modifications have favoured the better horses and the weights have contracted to increase the overall quality of the most famous race in the world. Nobody likes to see horses in distress and fatalities. The race now has the right balance between safety and fairness and maintaining its intrinsic demands.

The fences used to be more unforgiving but now have a softer core. Mistakes are still costly but horses have a better chance of staying on their feet. The number of fallers has dropped significantly since the jumps were modified. Moving the start 100 yards down the course is only a minor cosmetic step but it takes the horses further away from the frenzied atmosphere at Aintree on National day which can upset some horses. The race is still the longest in the National Hunt calendar.

The weight allocated to each horse is often a bone of contention but the handicapper aims to get horses running off their true weight by giving the better horses a slight weight advantage. This move has attracted the best chasers and the top 10 in the weights would not look out of place in the Gold Cup. You can’t please all the people all the time and Michael O’Leary withdrew his better Gigginstown horses because he perceived bias against Irish trained horses. That seemed a strange decision because Rule The World won him the National last year when trained in Ireland.

The National course and fences are still unique but more akin to a regular chase. In the past Aintree form was a bigger factor and the weights are now framed more on the basis of overall form including in traditional steeplechases. The authorities have worked hard to provide a safer test that brings together graded horses and handicappers while ensuring the National is something different. Viewing figures and betting turnover suggest they have done a good job. Even so picking the winner has not got any easier. The average price of the last 10 winners is 26/1!

The National course at Aintree was described as good to soft on Tuesday. A dry week is forecast which means there won’t be the extremes of going that can cause havoc. The race should be run on no better than good ground which makes for a safer contest and gives more horses a chance of completing the course and being competitive. Conditions should favour many leading contenders including Blaklion.

The winner of the RSA Chase at Cheltenham last year ran a great prep race for the National in a major trial at Haydock. The horse was outstayed by Vieux Lion Rouge giving weight and jumped well and wasn’t stopping at the end of the three miles four furlongs contest. At the top of the straight in the Hennessey Blaklion looked like beating Native River and that horse was second in the Gold Cup. The horse is trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies who won the National with Earth Summit (1998) and Bindaree (2002) and Blaklion could be his third winner of the historic race.

The jockey Noel Fehily has never won the Grand National and sees Blaklion as his best chance. He told the Racing Post this week:

“I wouldn’t swap Blaklion for anything. He’s got a nice bit of form and a bit of class about him, and I’m hoping for a big run. He was very accurate around Haydock last time too, and he’s been around Cheltenham a few times and jumps fine. Nigel Twiston-Davies has a great record in the race and I hope t rubs off”.

Blaklion is closely matched at the weights with Vieux Lion Rouge but is fairly handicapped. The trainer has been protecting his weight by not running often and that plan can be justified when Blaklion wins the Grand National on Saturday.

Saphir Du Rheu and More Of That ran pleasing trials for the National in the Gold Cup. The former was more than three lengths closer to the winner at the end of the race. Saphir De Rheu caries one pound less than More Of That in the National so has a few pounds in hand. That horse won the stayer’s hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in 2014, beating Annie Power who has not failed to win any other race when competing. Saphir Du Rheu won a grade 1 novice chase at Aintree in 2015 so is a classy animal who could be a blot on the handicap.

Vicente won the Scottish National for Paul Nicholls last season. The race is different in nature to the English version but at over four miles in distance still requires stamina, good jumping ability and the speed to take charge after most of the jumping. Vicente has those attributes so can make the frame at least and give Nicholls a great chance of winning another trainer’s championship. He won the National in 2012 with Neptune Collonges and although Vicente is not as good the horse can get in the mix at the business end of the race at Aintree on Saturday.

Vicente carries 10-10 in the National while Blaklion and Saphir Du Rheu have been allocated more than 11 stone. In the last 10 years half the winners had that burden and Blaklion and Saphir Du Rheu have the class to carry the weight and are potential winners while Vicente can make the payout places.

Unity Racing Investments

By Leave a Comment

We are glad to be putting March behind us on official figures we record our first loss for 6 months. That doesn’t tell the whole story though and we had many positives to take from the month. All of the information we provided for Cheltenham was kept off the official score so things were not as drab as the official figures show. It is simply a case of too many horses finishing close rather than winning a problem that can and does strike at any time.

Still nicely ahead for the year though and April has started brightly with a couple of winners yesterday at 9/2 advised and 7/1 sp. It would only take a few more like that and we will have reclaimed what the bookie is holding for us. Then we can sting them for the interest!

It’s that time of year as we transition between the seasons. Moving from the jumps to the flat with only Aintree and the Grand National to round things up on the jumps.

I think for all our members I will put on an Aintree horses in focus for all three days of the festival including a Grand National write up. So now would be a great time to join.

Another nice week last Tuesday for our horses in focus as we got plenty of shorter priced horses beaten as price negatives. However the real joy came with a 33/1 winner this is what we said about the race… HEXHAM 2:00 The market has this as a match between STORM FORCAST and WELL ABOVE PAR both are too short to back and even the reverse forecast makes little sense at these prices. I had a look through our speed ratings for these and we gave BRUICHLADDICH 33/1 a rating of 60 and Well Above Par 39 for the last races they ran that could make this horse a worthwhile each way play.

Today we only have 2 meetings but that is ok we will have a go and try to find you a winner or two and that will give me enough time later to start going through the AINTREE stats.

SOUTHWELL 2:10 MESHARDAL is expected to run a big race today 4/1 in places is just enough to warrant a bet of the bigger priced horses APPLEBERRY 25/1 makes some each way appeal after finishing 10l behind Wentworth falls that form now looks quite strong for this class 5 event as wentworth hacked up in a competitive race class 3 at Doncaster a few days ago yes the horse doesn’t have a great record but has always been a horse that would need time.

2:40 ARZAK looks the most likely one here judging by our speed ratings the horse should be clear at the business end 11/8 looks a bit of value. If there is some improvement from STOPWORLDNLETMEOFF that would make 25/1 look huge for that horse I think a worth each way and may be the one that follows the favourite home.

3:15 Plenty of chances here there is money for BORDER BANDIT and QUADRIGA both trading around 11/1. I know MOI AUSSIE was expected to do better last time so he has to be respected but small win bets on the first 2 mentioned would be where our pin drops.

3:50 STAR ASSENDING is the selection here from a stable in peak form 4/1 looks fair enough and I expect a decent run for our money. I can’t help thinking that ALBERT BOY 20/1 will pop up one of these days he is very well handicapped on best form and has been out of form for some time it may be today or maybe not but I assure you the horse will win soon and it will be at a decent price.

4:20 Similar may be said about BOLD PREDICTION 8/1 here another winner in waiting. It’s only a matter of time before this guy puts it all in again.

4:55 The most interesting race I quite like outsider ZYLAN 20/1 with bet365 the break has freshened him up and although they don’t know if they have him fully right and may need a race the price is worth a small risk. Daniel Steele has PULSATING 16/1 he has a chance of an each way Trixie today with his horses he also runs 5:55 GLENALMOND 11/2 and at Kempton 4:45 LANDSCAPE 3/1 all would have some kind of chance today of making the frame so an each way Trixie makes some appeal.

Back Next Tuesday.

Best Wishes,

Matt
Unity Racing Investments