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Dustin Johnson Is The Man This Week – By Ian Hudson

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The Bridgestone Invitational is a world golf championship by name and by the quality of the field playing in the tournament this week. The WGC events are only below the four major championships in terms of prestige and this week’s event has attracted all the players in the top 20 in the world rankings. If you were basing your main bet on course form you would have to back Tiger Woods who is an eight-times winner of the championship at Firestone Country Club in Akron, Ohio.

 

Woods has not been fully fit for a good few years but kept coming back to the game too soon and the wheels quickly fell off and he left the Tour again. However, he was absent for the best part of two years most recently. He suffered a great deal of pain and his career looked over. Woods is looking fully covered and healthy and had a great chance to win the Open a week last Sunday.

 

The former world number one was four shots adrift of the leaders ahead of the fourth round. He played a solid front nine and was the leader of the tournament with nine holes to play. In his pomp Woods would have got the job done but a couple of errors cost him three shots in two holes and he could not recover the ground. Francesco Molinari played the best golf over the weekend and was a worthy Open champion but Woods got in the mix and showed he can still compete at the highest level.

 

If Tiger is to add to his tally of 18 WGC events this week’s host course is the best venue. He has made Firestone his own and from 1999 to 2013 won this week’s event eight times. Woods clearly has a game suited to the course where he won his last WGC event in 2013. The 14-times major champion combines course form, current form and key skills and that is usually a recipe for a good week. If Woods prevails he has to beat the best field of the year outside the majors.

 

There are 73 players in the field this week and there is no cut so everyone receives a cheque. One of the objectives of world championship golf was to create more events which brought together the best players. That objective has been met and it could be said there is a stronger field than at the Open. The oldest major championship has places for leading amateurs and players from the minor tours but this week is all about quality and the world rankings. Every qualifier is committed to playing at Firestone.

 

The course is a par 70 track over 7,400 yards. It is a long course for its par but it is forgiving off the tee. There is a premium on iron play and finding the greens in the correct number of shots. There was a field of 76 players last year and the average score was 70.50 shots. Hideki Matsuyama won by five shots and he closed with a course record equalling 61 to race away from the field. He hit the greens in regulation and putted well and that skills’ profile will be required for good scoring this week.

 

The nature of the course and the level of competition has to bring Rory McIlroy into the equation. He broke par in his four rounds in the Open and finished tied second. McIlroy won on this week’s course in 2014 and has finished in the top 10 five times in seven starts. The Irish player would be the tip in normal circumstances but we cannot ignore the current world number one. Dustin Johnson can confirm that status by winning at Firestone for the second time but he has a long way to go to win on the track as many times as Woods.

McIlroy Can Win Another WGC Match Play – By Ian Hudson 

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The WGC Match play brings together the best players in the sport based on world rankings and seven of the top 10 are playing this week. The defending champion, top seed and world number one is Dustin Johnson who will again be a tough nut to crack. Over the short 18 holes format there will be shocks but the cream should rise to the top after five days of head-to-head golf. Rory McIlroy played wonderful golf over the back nine to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational on Sunday and he will also be hard to beat. He has the course, current and event form to call upon this week.

The market leaders do not have a great record in this event but that’s understandable due to the format. The 16 highest ranked players are seeded and three other players make up each of the 16 groups after an open draw. Matches are played on a round robin basis and only the group winners progress to the last 16. Matches are played over 18 holes so upsets can happen over this short format but the winner is often one of the best players in the world. Only two of the last 10 winners did not have a single figure world ranking when they won the world match play.

The 64 players are seeded based on their world ranking. There is a predefined draw in the knockout stage and if results go to form Johnson will play Justin Thomas in the final. However, in the 19 year history of the world match play the top two seeds have never met in the final. The number one seed has only won five times but over the last three years the winners have been seeded 1, 2 and 1. Changing the format from a 64 player straight knockout event has created more predictable outcomes. Players can afford one defeat in three group matches but still qualify for the last 16.

Tiger Woods lost in the final to Darren Clarke in 2000 and is the only top seeded losing finalist. The event panned out most in line with the rankings in 2004 when Woods, seeded one, beat Davis Love in the final and that player was the number three seed. In 2002 Kevin Sutherland won as the number 62 seed and four years later Geoff Ogilvy was ranked at number 52 when he won the first of his two WGC match play titles. McIlroy beat Gary Woodland in the final in 2015 as the number one seed. He is seeded six this time but is the hottest player in golf.

There has been an almost even split of winners between US players and overseas golfers over the history of the event. Two players from Northern Ireland and two players from England have prevailed which means the UK is the equal second winning most nation after the United States. Australians Ogilvy and Jason Day are both two-time champions.  There have been no Asian winners so Hideki Matsuyama would create history if the won this event. Paul Casey and Love are the only multiple losing finalists and McIlroy, Woods and Ogilvy are the only players to win and lose the final.

McIlroy has plenty of Ryder Cup match play experience and has an aggressive approach to his golf. He can afford to miss some fairways as he strives for distance and the most that a mistake can cost is one hole. With matches played over one round there is less recovery time but if a player stays within two holes of an opponent a match can transform on the 17th and 18th holes. McIlroy found an effective putting stroke last Sunday and that is the final piece in the jigsaw puzzle so he is tipped to win the 2018 WGC Match Play and his second title in four years.

Fleetwood Is The Man In Mexico – By Ian Hudson 

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Tommy Fleetwood is now in the upper echelons of professional golf and accordingly he is fifth favourite for the WGC Mexico Championship and a leading contender. He was outside the top 100 in the world rankings at the start of 2016 but is now at a career high of number 11 in the current standings. The logical career step is to win a major championship or WGC event and that could happen this week in Mexico. Fleetwood combines course and current form and should be suited to the host course.

The purpose of the golf world championship concept is to bring together the best players in the world more often. Before the WGC tournaments were added to the calendar it was only in the four majors that the leading players from all the tours competed in the same tournament. WGC events count for European Tour events so a player can count them in his required quota of appearances to keep his card. The top 10 players in the betting are US PGA tour players.

In the context of providing more competition for the world’s best the event in Mexico is slightly disappointing. Any tournament that attracts six of the top 10 players in the world rankings must be doing something right but that means four are missing and this is a world championship event. World number one, Dustin Johnson, is the favourite and last week’s winner of the Honda Classic, Justin Thomas, is the second. Fleetwood is as short as 16/1 to build on his top five finish in the States last week.

The absentees from the top 10 in the rankings are Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, Brooks Koepka and Rory McIlroy. The latter is now focusing on the US Masters, the one major he requires to complete the career Grand Slam which only five players in the history of the sport have achieved. A trip to Mexico for a tournament in alien conditions does not fit into the schedule despite its WGC status and prize money. McIlroy would probably swap 10 WGC events for that elusive Masters which would cement his place in the history of the sport.

Johnson is the defending champion on the same course that hosted the event last year. Chapultepec Golf Club is a par 71 track measuring 7,330 yards which is about average in length by modern standards. There is only one par 5 on the front nine and the three long holes are 625, 622 and 575 yards in length so won’t be giving up many eagle opportunities. Johnson beat Fleetwood by one shot last year and the same players could be in the mix again but Fleetwood can come out on top this time.

If Justin Rose wins this week he will become just the third player to win at WGC level twice in succession and only Johnson and Tiger Woods have done that in the past. Jon Rahm has played in four WGC events and has made the top three two times. There is a limited field this week of about 64 players so there is no cut and everybody receives a cheque. This is a small but select field with just a few qualified players absent and the cream usually comes to the top. Past champions in its previous guise include Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Ernie Els, all major champions.

Fleetwood won the Race to Dubai last season but is not a one hit wonder. He is one of the most consistent players in the world and won the high class Abu Dhabi Championship in January. Fleetwood can get the job done at WGC level in Mexico this week. That would set him up nicely for the Masters Tournament. McIlroy has his name on the Green Jacket but this could be Fleetwood’s week.

 Rose And McIlroy Are The Players To Back – By Ian Hudson

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The Phoenix Open at Scottsdale, Arizona attracts huge crowds that get more vocal and raucous as the day goes on. It takes a player with the temperament to deal with the noise from the spectators and Jordan Spieth fits the bill. Even though he is number three in the world rankings at his best Spieth is the best player in the world. He can confirm that status by winning the Phoenix Open for the first time.

The tournament has been played under various guises but has always been at the TPC of Scottsdale since 1987. Over 500,000 fans attend over four days. Particularly notorious are those in the grandstands around the par 3 16th where players hit their tee shot to a sudden explosion of fans from the well lubricated galleries. The biggest sound was generated when Tiger Woods had a hole-in-one on the hole.

The TPC of Scottsdale is a stadium course in the desert. There are lots of bunkers and waste areas and water is in play on several holes. The exposed stretch around the turn is the most difficult, particularly if the wind blows and the closing 3 holes are also tough when conditions are not benign. The 16th is a unique challenge, the next is a driveable par 4 with water on both sides and the closing par 4 yields very few birdies when the pin is tucked away. The greens are above average in size.

Rather than one specific attribute course form is often a good guide. The course itself doesn’t set any distinctive demands, except perhaps for a player’s short game to be in order, but the atmosphere is unique and those who relish the boisterous crowds have a significant advantage. Spieth takes everything in his stride and buys into the environment rather than blaming the buzz for any poor shots. Players need to go low to win and the average winning score over the last 10 years is 17 under par.

Perhaps due to the nature of the location and spectators wide margin wins are rare. Since 2008 there have been five playoffs and four wins by one shot. Phil Mickelson is a three-time winner so he clearly is comfortable on the course but he is no longer a genuine contender. Hideki Matsuyama has won the last two Phoenix Open’s and no other player has won two on the bounce since 1950. However, he is not playing well enough to achieve a rare three-peat in the same tournament.

Jon Rahm has suddenly appeared at number two in the world rankings behind Dustin Johnson and has course form at Scottsdale. He has a game suited to all types of the course and won’t be fazed by the hullaballoo. He is playing in the state where he went to university and was tied fifth as an amateur in 2015. Rahm made the top 20 last season and his recent form figures read Win-2nd-Win. Mental letdown could be an issue this week and then the spectators become a nuisance rather than a manageable distraction. Rahm is on the verge of winning a major which could be the Masters.

Spieth won the first major of the season in 2015 and threw away a winning chance at Augusta a year later. It’s been over six months since his last win which was the British Open. This is a drought for the 11-time winner which could end this week. Spieth has played the event twice and recorded two top 10s and a scoring average of 68.13. He can look after business amongst the furore and maintain his form and concentration so is the tip to win the 2018 Phoenix Open.

Justin Thomas Can Be The Champion Of Champions – By Ian Hudson

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Professional golf is now virtually an all-year activity and it all begins again for 2018 with the Tournament of Champions on the USPGA Tour this Thursday. The event is being played at the Plantation Course in Hawaii which means there will be some late night live action because the time difference with the UK is 10 hours. Regardless of the time zone Justin Thomas can defend the title he won in 2017.

The season-opener is confined to Tour winners during the previous calendar year. That means there is a limited field of just 34 players and there is no cut so everybody starts the year by winning some prize money. The champion this week gets a full two-year exemption so it’s a title worth winning. The number one player also qualifies for the 2019 renewal so can plan a schedule accordingly.

The course at Kapalua puts a premium on distance over accuracy. It is not over long but the fairways are wide so finding them from the tees is not difficult. The greens are also above average in size so players who excel at hitting greens in regulation do not have an advantage. The key is setting up manageable approach shots to the correct part of the greens and that task is made easier by long driving.

The course is beside the sea but not really links in nature. For a coastal course there are plenty of trees and the fairways are more lush than fast running. However, trade winds can increase the degree of difficulty and cause scores to rise. Since 2000 the winning score has been in a range of 8 to 31 under and the main difference in conditions has been the wind. The course is relatively easy in benign weather.

The tournament was formerly called the Mercedes Championships and in that guise saw a rare occurrence. Stuart Appleby won three times in a row from 2004 and 2006 and he is the only three-time winner this century. Tiger Woods has won the Tour curtain-raider twice and if he plays this time next year he will have won a regular tournament, WGC event or major. The former world number one is returning to the sport after two years of injuries and operations. Phil Mickelson won the event twice in the 1990’s but has not qualified this time.

Dustin Johnson has all the attributes to contend and he won the Tournament of Champions in 2013. His winning score of 16 under was exceptional as the event was reduced to 54 holes. Thomas was the champion a year ago with a score of 22 under and then went-to-back when winning the Sony Open the following week on the second leg of the Hawaii Swing. Thomas won five times and the FedEx Cup.

Rickie Fowler ticks a lot of boxes this week. He blitzed through the field with a final round of 61 to win the Hero World Challenge in December. Fowler was tied sixth in 2013 and solo 5th last year so can handles the course. Hideki Matsuyama is a long-hitting ball striker with an impressive scoring average but he has lost the knack of winning while Sergio Garcia is not playing in Hawaii.

Jordan Spieth qualified for the tournament with three wins, including the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale. He has played in the Tournament of Champions in the last three years and has form figures of  Second-Win-Tied Third. He has played 12 rounds at Kapalua and has an average of 67.67 shots. He has finished in the top 10 on his six latest starts so combines course and recent form but Thomas is preferred because he can hole more putts.

Spieth is certainly not shabby on the greens but his mate was fourth in strokes gained putting and third for proximity to the hole last year. The greens are relatively big so Thomas was hitting the right areas to set up many birdie and eagle opportunities. He is the USPGA champion and third behind Johnson and Spieth in the world rankings. Thomas can enhance his winning record in Hawaii with victory this week.

 Luiten Can Upstage Rahm And Garcia – By Ian Hudson 

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Dustin Johnson won the World Golf Championship HSBC Champions in 2013 and he can win the tournament again at Sheshan International Golf Club in Shanghai. The world number one has a game suited to the host course and can become the first multiple winner of the event which was first played in its current format 2009. It has been played at Sheshan in every year since then except 2012 so there is plenty of course form to assess.

Johnson is the main tip of the week with Golf Rater. This is WIN’s dedicated golf service that has produced a decent return on investment since proofing began at the start of the year. Subscribers have enjoyed a run of winners including Jordan Spieth at 16/1 in the Open Championship. You can get all the best golf bets until the end of the season at a one-off price of £14.99: CLICK HERE!

This WGC event brings together the best players from all the global tours and it is the first elite event since the USPGA Championship in August. There is a limited field of 78 players so no cut which means everybody receives a cheque. The prize fund is almost $10 million and points won count towards the FedEx Cup. It is the third leg of the Far East Swing on the US PGA Tour and the first two legs have been won by Pat Perez and Justin Thomas but the latter is absent.

Sheshan International is a par 72 course measuring 7,261 yards which is about average in length by modern standards. The course puts a premium on accuracy over distance and it features fairway bunkers and water hazards. The fairways are tree-lined and they lead to undulating greens. The key skills for good scoring are driving accuracy, greens in regulation and average putts per round. The course is a good test of a player’s all round game and a quality player is usually the champion.

The average winning score over the seven renewals on the track is 19 under in a range from 11 to 23 below par. There has been one playoff and winning margins from one to seven shots. Three players from the United States have won, there have been four champions from Europe and Hideki Matsuyama from Japan is the defending champion.  The field is made up mainly of tournament winners over the last year.

The HSBC Champions is the first event of the US PGA Tour season that attracts a strong field. Johnson is playing for the first time and in addition to win the event in 2013 he was tied fifth two years later. He had a poor playoffs at the end of last season but then won 4 points from 5 matches in the Presidents Cup. Johnson is currently the best player in the world and he can confirm that status by winning this week.

Johnson combines long and accurate driving which is a rare combination. He can avoid the hazards on the fairways and find plenty of greens with relatively short approach shots. His putting is good enough to make him the most likely winner this week and consolidate his position at the top of the world rankings. Johnson can embark on his new season with a victory in Shanghai.

Hideki Matsuyama cannot be ignored as a potential champion. He won the tournament last year with a score of 23 under. He was tied 5th on his last outing two weeks ago and is in decent form. Tyrell Hatton is on a hot streak and has won in his last two starts. The US Open champion Brooks Koepka has only finished lower than 20th once in his last eight outings. However, Johnson has most in his favour so can record his second win at Sheshan.

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Keep Matsuyama On Your Side In The USPGA Championship This Week – By Ian Hudson

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One of the intriguing betting markets related to majors is whether the winner will be a first time major winner and this time it’s difficult to assess. Having highlighted the credentials of Rory McIlroy for the USPGA Championship who has won four of the titles that matter most it might seem contradictory to suggest this week will see a new major champion but Hideki Matsuyama and Rickie Fowler are playing for that side of the market.

Matsuyama is the favourite in a number of markets including the leading player from Asia and top golfer from the rest of the world. The Japanese player is in the form of his life. His final round 61 to clinch the Bridgestone Invitational last Saturday was in his opinion the best he has played. The issue is whether he can maintain that level of form when he tees it up in the first round of the USPGA Championship.

The current world number three has won nine times in his last 20 starts which is Tiger Woods territory at his best in terms of strike rate. Golfers lose many more times than they win and there are up to 156 runners in tournaments. Matsuyama’s current level of form makes him the best player in the world even though Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth are above him in the world rankings.

Matsuyama has been knocking on the door in majors for a number of years. He has recorded six top 10s in the weeks that matter most. McIlroy has a great deal in his favour this week but Matsuyama can chase him home. In that case you would lose money if betting on a new major winner but collect on Matsuyama to be the top non-US player and rest of the world contender.

Fowler is in the bracket of “one of the best players to have not won a major” and he has also been getting close. He is proven at the highest level as a winner of the Players Championship which is known as the fifth major due to the quality of the field. Fowler finished 11th at the Masters and 5th in the US Open this year but did little wrong. He didn’t throw away a winning chance but others played better at the business end of both events and Fowler’s day will come.

Matsuyama and Fowler are the shortest in the betting of the non-major winners. Jon Rahm is also a member of that club and he is another major champion in waiting. However, on balance the betting suggests the winner of the PGA Championship this week will be winning a second or more major. However, it’s worth noting that before Spieth won the Open Championship there were seven new major champions.

The weather forecast for the Quail Hollow area suggests thunderstorms are highly likely. Golfers can play in the wind and rain but any treat of lightening will lead to play being suspended for the safety of players and spectators. Dealing with breaks and delays will present a mental challenge and could affect the winning score and margin. It makes sense to bet low in these markets and the course is a tough test.

In the last five Wells Fargo Championships played at the course the average winning score is 12 under but this week a much lower score can get the job done. In the seven year history of the event under this name there have been four Playoffs and two one shot wins.  McIlroy won by seven shots in 2015 but that was exceptional and another hint that this could be his week. Tournaments at Quail Hollow are close run affairs that often go down to the wire.

There is often a bit of value in the market for a top 10 finish and some players are overpriced. The focus is on the leading contenders and sometimes a consistent performer in the majors is overlooked. Lee Westwood is the only player in the history of the sport to finish in the top three in all four majors without winning one. There have been some changes in his private and professional life and though winning this week looks beyond him he has enough in his favour to make the top 10.

McIlroy is the main tip to win the 2017 USPGA Championship but you should keep Matsuyama on your side in some of the related markets for a high scoring tournament that could be won by 1 shot or after a Playoff.

Monty Looks Overpriced for Open Top Ten

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Colin Montomerie never won a regular major but can’t stop winning at the highest level since joining the Seniors Tour. He looks overpriced to finish in the top 10 of the Open Championship this week at the Royal Troon course he knows well. Rory McIlroy is not quite in the form to win his fifth major but looks well placed to be best British and Irish player. Henrik Stenson can outscore other players from continental Europe while Hideki Matsuyama is a standing dish to be leading Asian.

Monty’s Dad was the secretary at Troon when little Colin was growing up. He knows the course like the back of his hand but in his younger days the pressure was too much. Monty was playing on his home turf but golf is not an exact science and he never looked like winning a Troon Open. It’s common these days for an old stager to play well early in a major (usually Bernhard Langer) and then fade. Montgomerie could get in the mix but drop down the leader board over the weekend but still reward punters who back him at 30/1 to finish in the top 10.

Montgomerie won the European Order of Merit eight times but never won a conventional major or any tournament in the United States. Since turning 50 and competing against his own age group Monty has won three majors all in the US. That means he killed two birds with one stone and is playing well enough to figure in the Open over the first two rounds. The younger brigade will overhaul him but the price is too big for him to stay in touch and end the tournament high up the leader board.

The Scottish veteran qualified for the Open at Gailes Links with rounds of 66 and 71. He now plays in the third major of the season for the first time since 2010. He is familiar with the course, proven in recent weeks on a links challenge and has a good skill’s profile in the context of Troon. Finding greens in regulation has always been a strength and Monty is a good scrambler and putter. He looks nailed on to be top Senior but the better option is to back him to make the top 10 at Troon this week.

McIlroy is the best qualified to be the top golfer from the UK including Ireland. The other obvious contenders such as Justin Rose and Danny Willett can be opposed for various reasons, such as form and links experience. Shane Lowry is of interest but he missed the cut by a mile at the Scottish Open and still could have some mental scars from not winning the US version despite a four shot lead ahead of the fourth round. McIlroy could not defend last year but strong form includes a win at the Irish Open and another five top four finishes this season. The 2014 Open champion can have a good week without quite winning again.

Stenson has never won a major but that is the only missing item on a great CV. He has reached a career high of number four in the world rankings but dipped badly due to loss of form and injury. He has come back a better player and more mentally strong but his major winning days may be behind him against the younger breed of top players. Stenson has made the cut in the last three Opens and is third in the greens in regulation standings on the US Tour. He is competent in the other key aspects of the game and his profile can make him be the best scorer from the continent.

Hideki Matsuyama is a potential future major champion with a good record in the Open. He has made the last three cuts in the championship and has the ability and temperament for links golf. The man from Japan has contended in the past at the highest level and could do so again this week. Matsuyama can overcome a far from perfect skills’ set to finish best of the Asians but a top 10 for Monty is still a better bet.