What can I say about the month so far? It’s been a challenge our strike rate has been well below what we would expect less than 10% when on average since the beginning we typically operate at around 23%. Yet we are up around 40 points that’s a 53% return on investment. This is because we have hit some huge winners Bollin Line won 50/1 into 20/1 REGULAR INCOME won 7/1, LUCARNO DANCER won 20/1 into 17/2 GOLAN FORTUNE won 16/1 into 6/1 as a huge gamble took place the horse made a mistake and our dough looked done around 3 out but the horse stuck on gamely to draw clear at the line. The horse came through connections that have provided some great past winners for us at really decent prices. FIRST EXCELL won another big gamble backed from 12/1 into 13/2. Some huge winners but far too many that have run very bad for my liking and that’s just the way it is this time of year it usually takes a couple of months for the stride to be hit.
We are in a much better position than last year though this month. November 2016 we took a loss so overall I have to be pleased especially as the last two Decembers (2016 and 2015) we have broken the 100 points barrier in both. That’s what makes it a really good time to join us now and be part of the many Christmas gambles our contacts have been planning all year.
The information is usually on point as they all want to fill their sacks for Christmas!
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TODAY’S HORSES IN FOCUS
Not the greatest race day today as we have all jump meetings yet it’s still better than the disappointing performance put on by Kempton yesterday with 2 races only having 2 runners and one race with 3. That is pretty terrible for the punter.
HUNTINGDON 1:10 – CANYON CITY would be the value call against the short priced favourite at 15/2 with bet365 yet it’s hard to quantify what he beat last time. It very much looks like the top 3 in the market will be the 123 in this.
HUNTINGDON 1:40 – FIRMOUNT GENT should have the measure of these but 5/4 for a horse that fell last time may be a concern according to the speed figures 100/1 shot SOCIETY MAN yes I must be mad he is well out of the handicap and hasn’t won over fences in 60 plus races but I think he can get a place he was running a decent race last time when unseating. He was keeping pace with a 133 rated horse and there is nothing close to that class here. I have had a nibble at 999/1 on the exchange but it’s more of a fun bet out of curiosity that being said I will make a ton of money if he wins but I won’t be out of pocket much if he doesn’t and there could be an opportunity to cash out my stake during the race.
HUNTINGDON 2:10 – EAST INDIES looks a big price here at 20/1 I think the horse has improved this year and I think further progress will happen in time Granted the favourite should be the class act but I’m keen to see how the race plays out. SO CELEBRE should run well too.
HUNTINGDON 3:40 – SHAELLA 8/1 makes some appeal here despite being flat bred the horse has already shown something over this course and distance and being closely related to a group 3 winner I think the horse will progress this season. The price is big enough to chance and I hope for connections the horse runs a good race I know they think a great deal of her.
LINGFIELD 12:50 Stakes (Class 6) 16f – OGBORNE LADY 6/1 connections are backing this horse today! They are anticipating a winning start after the horse has been putting in some great work at home. They think she is well above this level and must be backed today. Only time will tell if the horse can show it on the track.
LINGFIELD 1:50 Handicap Chase (Class 4) 20f – GRAYED A can win this according to connections the horse has really come on at home since his first race this year and should take to the larger obstacles. I think this horse is one to keep an eye on as progress is expected to be ongoing all season but he should be above this grade 4/1 isn’t much in the way of value on form but on what we have been told it could look very juicy.
We are going to finish our horses to follow list this week and we should have something for you for next week’s column it has taken some time including a trip to France and 2 trips to Ireland. We have met the horses and seen some work it’s now time to write up the findings and then we can get winning some of these bets.