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Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Will Rooney Score In His last Match For England?

It’s another international break and the big issue is whether Wayne Rooney should be appearing for England against the United States at Wembley tomorrow night. It’s a precedent and when another player breaks Rooney’s England scoring record it will have to happen again…..possibly in about 2025! Lets be honest has an England cap ever been devalued in the past with some of the efforts in major tournaments? An England cap looked quite worthless when Iceland were too good for the team in Euro 2016. ROONEY is 5/4 with William Hill to score against the USA. 

If you are looking for a football bet tonight you could be scraping the barrel. Switzerland are at home to Qatar in an international friendly and there are two matches in the EFL Trophy and that’s your lot. Notts County are at home to Doncaster in a match that means very little. Progressing in the EFL Trophy and staying in the league are like chalk and cheese. With a big relegation battle on the horizon Notts County players are potentially not bothered about tonight’s fixture so DONCASTER are the team to back to win in 90 minutes at 4/5 with Ladbrokes.  

If Samcro is the next coming of the Lord and a potential winner of the Champion Hurdle and Cheltenham Gold Cup Black Op must be a half decent horse. Black Op was beaten by Samcro by two and three quarter lengths off level weights at Cheltenham in March despite edging right after the final hurdle. The horse then won a Grade 1 hurdle at Aintree which makes him not far behind Samcro on ratings and form. BLACK OP runs over fences for the first time at Exeter today and if hurdles form is translated into this beginners’ chase he must be backed at 4/6. 

We have recommended three selections around the even money mark and below today and the power of accumulated odds makes for a decent combined bet. Bookmakers like this type of bet because they have a number of chances for it to lose. The events are unconnected so there should be no case for related contingencies and the TREBLE pays over 4/1 with bet365.

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Can Messi Score At Hat-Trick Today? 

He’s rubbish that Ronaldo! Couldn’t hit a barn door. That might be the case but he has now scored at least one goal in four successive World Cups and he is one of only four players to have done that. Ronaldo scored his career 51st hat-trick against Spain and now plays against the two weaker teams in the group. RONALDO is good enough to score another two-hat tricks which would make his current price of 2/1 with Coral to be the leading scorer at the World Cup the bet of the century.

Lionel Messi has also scored for Argentina at the World Cups in 2006, 2010 and 2014 and it’s his turn today. He plays for Argentina against Iceland in Group D in a match his country should win. Iceland over performed at Euro 2016 and their 5-0 defeat to France was more indicative of their world ranking than the win against England who were abysmal. MESSI is 20/1 with Paddy Power to score three goals or more today.

The match bet of the four matches in the World Cup is CROATIA at 4/5 with William Hill to beat Nigeria. Croatia have conceded one goal or less in their last 14 competitive matches and Nigeria are not prolific. In midfield Luka Modric mixes it with the best for Real Madrid. He provides the creativity in front of a strong defence and goalkeeper. In the other matches France will be too good for Australia and the match between Peru and Denmark is difficult to call.

The most lucrative racing fixture is at York and the feature race is the handicap over six furlongs at 3.35pm. There are 20 horses declared to run which means each way bets will be settled at one quarter the odds for four places and some bookmakers may payout on five. FOXTROT LADY is improving and gets a five pound weight allowance due to the inexperienced jockey. The horse is the bet at 7/1 with Ladbrokes.

Perfect Pasture Is The Horse To Back Today – By Rick Elliott

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When the biggest football match of the night is an international friendly between Iceland and Czech Republic you know it’s a quiet one. It’s the week of the World Cup playoffs but before then the team that humbled England at last year’s Euros host the runners-up at Euro 96 in a meaningless fixture. Iceland have done it again and qualified for the World Cup and they could have some backers at 150/1 with Coral.

There are four fixtures in the EFL Trophy but the most feisty match brings together Chester, the home team, and Wrexham in the National League. The two clubs are only 13 miles apart but one is England and the other is in Wales. Wrexham are 19 places and 14 points ahead of their opponents in this fixture but on form the hosts are not without a chance. CHESTER can win as underdogs at 21/10 with Betfair.

The theme of moderate fare continues with today’s racing. Nottingham is the principle meeting in Britain and the seven races are worth £47K in total while one of the many All Weather fixtures at Dundalk offers £27,000 more in prize money. Low prize money attracts poor horses and you can’t have a Cheltenham Festival or Aintree Grand National meeting every week. The top level of racing is flourishing but the grass roots offers abysmal prize money which could get worse if FOBT’s are restricted.

The highlight of the card at Nottingham is a race that is run in the name of the wife of the late Henry Cecil. The Lady Cecil Handicap (2.15pm) is a class 2 contest for much below the level horses generally trained by Cecil. Hoof It is a former top class handicapper who has seen better days, much like one of the owners, the golfer Lee Westwood. The horse and player are both about 25/1 to win this week.

Perfect Pasture is the top rated horse in the race. He has dropped down in the weights to a manageable mark and 7lb lower than when second in the same contest last year. The horse has won over course and distance so PERFECT PASTURE must be backed at 4/1 with William Hill to win Mrs Cecil’s race.

England Will Beat Lithuania But Not Saying Much – By Rick Elliott

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Glenn Hoddle kept banging on about how well England played against Germany and Gareth Southgate highlighted the positives. But if the friendly fixture in Dortmund on Wednesday had been in a major final which players would have been running around the pitch with the Cup?  England huffed and puffed and then the German guy who made the speech before the match just hit the ball as hard as possible in the direction on the net. It was very efficient if you don’t mind a bit of national stereotyping.

England had a massive ratio of shots to goals in the finals of the 2016 European Championships. Again the pundits accentuated the good things but there is a fundamental rule in football and that is the team that scores most goals wins the match. England will no doubt qualify for the World Cup Finals in Russia next summer and beating Lithuania in a qualifier at Wembley on Sunday will be part of that process. But can they at last excel when it matters most?

Southgate more than most knows what its like to not deliver on the big occasion. He missed the crucial penalty in the semi-final against Germany at Euro 96.  At least England gave it a good go in that tournament and they would have been worthy winners. Since then a pattern has emerged of decent qualifying tournaments followed by major underachievement when it mattered most. England don’t get tough draws but falter in the big moments. The sum of the individual talents makes less than it should be in the key matches and managerial incompetence doesn’t help.

That whole trend came to an inglorious head against Iceland at the Euros last summer. England missed loads of chances in the Group matches but papered over the cracks by getting out of the group. However, there was an uneasy feeling that the missed chances would be costly against better opposition. But England did not play anyone half decent except Wales and were exposed mentally against Iceland. Southgate talks about dealing with previous scars and gave his penalty miss in Euro 96 as an example.

Germany were frankly hopeless in the first half on Wednesday. However, regular England watchers could see the signs of good approach play, a couple of decent chances but the goals tally stubbornly staying at zero. Adam Lallana and Dele Alli missed sitters and in the back of fan’s mind was the feeling that Germany would improve in the second half and find a way to win the match. England tired and ran out of ideas and Germany finished the match strongly, looking the most likely scorers in the closing stages.

England will beat Lithuania on Sunday and probably by a number of goals. Wembley will be packed out which is remarkable when you consider the garbage England usually produce in the major finals tournaments. The loyalty of the fans knows no bounds as Wembley tickets are not cheap and the place is still difficult to get to, especially for a match starting at 5pm on Sunday which seems bizarre scheduling. The match is live on ITV and the TV companies are the paymasters. It does make travelling difficult for any supporter living a fair distance from the stadium.

Lithuania are 107th in the world rankings and England are at number 14 in the standings. The teams met in qualifying for the last European Championships with England winning 4-0 at home and by one less goal without reply in Lithuania. A similar margin of victory is expected on Sunday and anything less than a comfortable England win would be a major shock. However, the nature of the qualifying process is that a draw or Lithuania win would not seriously damage England’s prospects for qualification to the 2018 World Cup. However, Southgate could literally send out his second string and win the match.

England could be described as flat track bullies and no doubt will rack up plenty of goals in Group F which also includes Slovenia, Slovakia, Scotland and Malta. Beating these relative minnows says nothing about the quality of the side and that is usually exposed by decent opponents in finals but Iceland did the job perfectly well last summer. England will qualify for the World Cup but only in the finals does it get serious but ultimately comical usually for England for all the wrong reasons.

City and Guardiola Under Massive Pressure to Beat Tottenham at Home – By Rick Elliott

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The Pep Guardiola experiment at Manchester City is going wrong and he is only 3/1 not be the manager of the club at the start of next season. It’s all right having a great array of midfield and attacking talent but if you concede four goals at Everton something is seriously wrong at the back. Its too early to talk about a must win fixture but if City drop points at home to Tottenham on Saturday they could be 12 points or more behind Chelsea in the Premier League.

Tottenham are currently the best side in the league and Harry Kane and Dele Alli are playing out of their skin. The England contingent look totally different players to the ones that couldn’t put two passes together during the debacle of England’s defeat to Iceland in the European Championships in the summer. The Tottenham defence is solid and they have conceded the fewest number of goals in the league.

After capitulating at Everton City will be under pressure to get their season back on track and anything less than a home win against Tottenham will put more pressure on Guardiola. However, the fixture brings together a stuttering defence and purring attack and Tottenham can avoid defeat in a scoring draw and Kane to score at any time must be backed. This match has goals written all over it and there could be more than four. Joe Hart will have mixed feelings if City let in four goals again.

Liverpool are the highest scoring team in the Premier League but they have also conceded more goals than the other teams in the top four. They are unbeaten at home in the league this season, scoring 26 goals and conceding seven in nine matches at Anfield. This week they had the inconvenience of an FA Cup replay at Plymouth but Jurgen Klopp will be playing two different elevens over the two fixtures.

Swansea are currently bottom of the Premier League but the new head coach Paul Clement has made three signings since being appointed two weeks ago. The most significant arrival is Tom Carroll from Tottenham who made 18 appearances for Swansea during a loan spell two seasons ago. Carroll is good enough to have played for the England Under-21 team and is a positive addition to a struggling squad.

However, this match looks like the home banker of the schedule and Liverpool can beat Swansea to nil and by more than one goal. Swansea are looking like relegation fodder and their points tally won’t improve after playing at Liverpool on Saturday.

It may be that selling all their best players is catching up with Southampton. Over the last few seasons they have punched above their weight but their current position of 13th in the table is more in keeping with their wealth and potential earnings from matches at their stadium and merchandising. Southampton have won just four of 10 league matches at home this season scoring 10 goals and conceding one more. However, they have enough to beat Leicester at home on Sunday.

There are three poorer teams in the league so Leicester will not create unwanted history by becoming the first team to be relegated in the season after winning the Premier League. Their home form should see them establish a safe position in the bottom half of the table but clear of the relegation places. Losing at Southampton won’t be terminal and Leicester’s home form can see them climb up the league but not as high as they finished last season as that will never happen again.

Arsenal have lost one of 10 matches played in the league this season and Burnley are not good enough to double that number. Alexis Sanchez is the most effective player in the league based on goals and assists. Arsene Wenger must keep him happy if Arsenal are going to challenge for the Premier League but they are eight points off the pace but three points from beating Burnley should see them stay in touch.

Burnley are the surprise package of the season and are becalmed in mid-table safety, unlikely to qualify for Europe and free of relegation worries. They have the third best home record in the league and only Tottenham and Chelsea have picked up more points at home. Conversely they have drawn one and lost eight of nine matches on the road and Arsenal can beat the visitors by two goals or more.