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Footpad Can Put Down A Marker For The Season – By Ian Hudson

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The significant action in the context of the Cheltenham Festival this weekend is in Ireland and the star of the show is Footpad. There is a competitive handicap chase at Aintree on Saturday but Naas and Navan stage races that could have a bearing on the jumps meeting that matters most next March. Footpad won the Arkle at the festival last season and could graduate to being a leading contender in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham in the spring. 

The National Hunt season is now in full swing and the turf Flat season ended last Saturday at Newmarket. From now until Christmas there is a major televised jumps race each Saturday as the best horses reappear after a summer break. Between now and the end of the year there are competitive handicap chases at Cheltenham and Newbury. The Ladbrokes Trophy, formerly the Hennessey Gold Cup, has historically provided pointers for the Grand National and Cheltenham Gold Cup. 

There is a £1 million bonus up for grabs for any horse who can win the Betfair Chase at Haydock later this month, the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day and the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Kauto Star (2007) is the only horse to win the bonus so it takes a special steeplechaser to win the three most important staying chases in the same season. Might Bite has the versatility to win three Grade 1 chases on different types of track. Bristol De Mai and Native River could both win one of the three but Might Bite can act going right and left handed and on a flat and undulating track. 

Footpad won the Arkle over two miles at Cheltenham in March. The horse was ridden off the pace by Ruby Walsh who made his move approaching the straight. The race was put to bed in a few strides and the manner of the win suggested that stamina would not be an issue. Footpad is prominent in the betting for the King George and speed will be important at Kempton over Christmas. Willie Mullins has never won the Gold Cup and this weekend will be informative about his leading contender. 

Footpad is entered at Naas on Saturday and Navan the following day. The Naas race is a better opportunity but the horse won’t be tested. The tougher assignment is at Navan in the Grade 2 Fortria Chase, which is run over two miles as is the option at Naas. At some point Mullins will step the horse up in trip and how he copes will determine the season-long target at Cheltenham. Mullins has another potential winner of the Fortria Chase in Great Field so the easier race is on the cards. 

The Rewards4Racing Handicap Chase at Aintree on Saturday is a Class 2 contest over 2 miles, three furlongs and 200 yards. At the time of writing the final field was not known but 23 horses were still in the race ahead of the declarations. If Value At Risk is a runner the horse would be of interest. A run 13 days ago means fitness won’t be an issue and many of the leading contenders have not run for more than 200 days. Value At Risk is a solid handicapper but Footpad is the best horse running in Britain and Ireland over the weekend. 

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Stalemate When Ireland Host Wales 

When Wales beat Ireland 4-1 in Cardiff last month in the UEFA Nations League the best players on the pitch were the obvious candidates. Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey could get a game for most international sides but they will be absent for the reverse fixture in Dublin tonight. Denmark could not score against Ireland on Saturday but the home team have found the net in the first half in just one of their last 11 internationals. Christian Eriksen did not play for Denmark against Ireland and he is their Bale counterpart as a world class player. Three of the last eight meetings between Ireland and Wales have been goalless and neither side have goals potential in the selected sides. Therefore, the best outcome to bet on in this fixture is the DRAW at 21/10 with Paddy Power.

There are eight other Nations League fixtures and 10 international friendlies tonight. It’s debatable whether there will be much difference in the level of effort and motivation in the two types of fixture. France and Germany have had huge meetings in the World Cup and European Championships. Germany lost 3-0 to another big rival in Holland at the weekend and the once untouchable manager is under pressure. Joachim Low may not survive another humiliating defeat and FRANCE should be backed at 8/11 with bet365 to win this fixture. Argentina will be without Lionel Messi when they play in BRAZIL tonight. The home team have lost twice in 29 fixtures so out the South American outfit to back at 8/13 with William Hill. 

There are two Flat meeting and two over jumps today in Britain and a jumps fixture at Punchestown in Ireland which offers most prize money. The conditions hurdle over two miles at 2.35 is the richest contest at the track. The race has only attracted four runners but none of those are bigger than 9/2 in the forecast betting. Don’t Touch It comes out on top for form and ratings but Hidden Cyclone has not run for 363 days. Stooshie is the most progressive of the quartet but EIGHT TILL LATE can translate good Flat form over hurdles and is the selection at 4/1 with Ladbrokes.   

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Warrington Look Good With A Start 

Rugby league has it’s the day in the sun with the Grand Final between Wigan and Warrington at Old Trafford. However, there could be more rain than sun in Manchester, the city with a reputation for wet weather. In rugby league rain means difficult conditions and problems in handling the ball which points to a low scoring match. The favourite on the day has not won the Grand Final since 2010. During the regular season and Super 8s Wigan finished 2 places and nine points ahead of Warrington. Wigan had an average superior point’s difference of 4 points. You can cover two bases by backing WARRINGTON +4 at 6/5 with William Hill. 

Denmark have not conceded in seven of their last 10 matches and Ireland have won just once in six fixtures. Denmark were much too good for Ireland in the World Cup playoff match in Dublin last year and ran out 5-1 winners. They won’t have the same intensity for this Nations League match and Christian Eriksen, who scored a hat-trick in that meeting, is absent due to injury. Ireland lost 4-1 to Wales in Cardiff last month and they have just been humbled against Spain by the same score. DENMARK are the bet at 13/8 with bet365.

There are 34 declared runners in the Cesarewitch which is run over two miles and two furlongs at Newmarket today. Famously the race starts in one country and ends in another. Jumps trainers do well with predominantly National Hunt hurdlers and Willie Mullins has sent six horses from Ireland. However, Alan King who has few runners on the Flat, could have the answer with JUST IN TIME who is 20/1 with Betfair. The Dewhurst Stakes on the same card is the most prestigious race of the season for horses aged two. Too Darn Hot is a big favourite but at the relative odds ANTHNOY VAN DYCK is the horse to back at 4/1 with Ladbrokes.  

Kenya Can Do The Cambridgeshire Double – By Ian Hudson

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Kenya won the Irish Cambridgeshire and at the weights has been given a decent chance to complete the double in the English version at Newmarket on Saturday. The heritage handicap over the Rowley Mile has a maximum field of 35 runners and the race looks like being fully subscribed. Kenya has produced the goods in the hurly burly of a big field handicap and can use that experience to win the Cambridgeshire for Aidan O’Brien. The jockey has not been named but it could be Ryan Moore.

The race is open to horses aged three and older and the distance is actually one mile and one furlong. The race was first run in 1839 so is one of the oldest handicaps on the calendar. The Cesarewitch was first run in the same year and the races form the Autumn Double. Three horses completed the double in the 19th century but horses with different attributes are suited to each race so it is now never attempted. In fact no horse has run in both races in the same year for more than a century.

The Cambridgeshire is a handicap which means each horse is allocated a weight based on proven form. The theory is that each of the 35 runners has an equal chance of finishing first. However, there will be unexposed horses who have been prepared for the race and they could be blots on the handicap. The trick is identifying horses on a winnable mark and in such a big field a number of runners may qualify. There could be a potential Group horse lurking in this handicap. 

Naturally the winner of the race will go up in the weights and in such a open contest multiple winners are rare. In fact no horse has won the Cambridgeshire three times but seven have won it twice. Bronze Angel is the most recent dual winner (2012 and 2014) and carried eight stone and eight pounds in both races. The weights rise after the first win led to a dip in form and Bronze Angel slipped down the weights ahead of the second win two years later. The Starting Price was 9/1 and 14/1. Since 2000 there have been three winning favourites and the average price of the winner is 20/1.

The leading trainers and jockeys won the race four times but both those records were set in the 19th century. Marcus Tregoning trained Bronze Angel and is the only trainer to win the race more than once since John Gosden was the winning trainer with two different horses in 2007 and 2008. Since 2000 no jockey has ridden the winner more than once. Moore has never won the Cambridgeshire and Frankie Dettori’s only winner was in 1994.     

      

Kenya won the Irish Cambridgeshire with plenty in hand and can accommodate an eight pounds rise in the weights. Horses that are trained outside the UK are worth considering. The form of races in Britain and Ireland can be hard to compare so Kenya could be that horse given too little weight. The winner often makes progress from a previous race but Kenya’s form is now in the public domain. The horse was in a different class in Ireland and can complete the Cambridgeshire double at Newmarket this weekend. 

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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England Play Switzerland In Real Friendly

England were 22 minutes away from playing in the World Cup final but have now lost three matches in succession for the first time since 1988. On the one hand England only beat Tunisia, Panama and Sweden in 90 minutes in Russia but progressed further than Germany, Brazil, Spain and Argentina. The cards definitely fell kindly but you can only beat who you have to play and England did score 12 goals in seven matches during the World Cup. Switzerland are their opponents this evening at Leicester’s ground in what is a genuine friendly rather than the pseudo friendlies that are fixtures in the UEFA Nations League. ENGLAND are 7/10 with Ladbrokes to beat Switzerland tonight.

The bane of international football in the past has been meaningless matches with nothing at stake. Inventing a tournament concept will not fool the fans and everybody knows winning Euro 2020 is what matters and the Nations League is a manufactured environment. At least tonight the match is called a friendly and is not being disguised as something it is not. Team selection and motivation are key and you would fancy the England second string to beat Switzerland. However, England have won just three of their last nine friendlies and Switzerland have lost twice in 22 matches. The visitors scored six against Iceland in their last match and England are strong up front so the bet of the match is BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at Evens with bet365.

Backing football teams at odds-on is not everybody’s cup of tea and in international friendlies teams often don’t play to their best. Players may lack the desire and hunger while opponents may have something to prove. However, in any potential scenario Poland must beat Ireland at home tonight in a non-competitive match. Ireland have just seven Premier League players available for selection. POLAND have a new coach and must be backed even at 11/20 with William Hill.

It’s the second day of the Listowel harvest festival and the fixture is the most lucrative of the day. The richest race on the card is the handicap hurdle over two miles at 3.40 and there is a maximum field of 18 runners. The place terms are one quarter the odds for the first four and KUIPER BELT is the each-way bet. The horse has won two minor races in England and now steps up to handicap company with potentially something in hand so is the selection at 10/1 with Coral.

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Gareth Bale Plays For Wales Against Ireland 

Ryan Giggs famously rarely turned up for meaningless matches that Wales played possibly because Sir Alex Ferguson told him he couldn’t. The Manchester United player and manager could have been concocting injuries and illness and it was more than a coincidence that Giggs was fit enough to play in competitive matches for Wales. His most effective player is committed to always playing for his country.

It must have been frustrating for a series of managers of the Welsh national team that their best player was unavailable so often. The roles are now different and the current manager of Wales must be delighted that Gareth Bale is available for selection for the Nations League match at home to Ireland. That manager is Giggs and GARETH BALE is 14/5 with William Hill to score the first goal.

The Nations League is basically about international friendlies disguised as competitive matches. The concept has given a structure to fixtures that meant so little that Giggs more often than not stayed in Manchester due to some minor complaint that always seemed to clear up before Manchester United’s next match. In any battle of will Ferguson held sway and Giggs pulled out of Wales’ squads.

The current manager of Wales has the chance in Cardiff tonight to compensate for failure to qualify for the World Cup that was partly due to a 1-0 loss at home to Ireland. In fact there is a competitive element to tonight’s match because the league winners qualify for the Euro 2020 playoffs next March. However, there are 12 teams vying for that one place. WALES are 10/11 with Betfair to beat Ireland tonight.

Salisbury has been in the news for all the wrong reasons but today the racecourse stages a decent meeting that features one of only two Group races at the track. The fillies’ stakes over six furlongs for horses aged two is a Group 3 race which has attracted some decent juveniles. On form and ratings FIRELIGHT is the horse to back and that runner is 6/4 with Ladbrokes to win Salisbury’s biggest fillies’ race.

Don’t Miss These Three Red Hot Trainers – By High Roller Racing

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Nigel Tinkler, Gordon Elliot and William Haggas are three trainers in very good form and must be followed in the coming week or so. When these guys hit form they do so with vengeance.

Nigel Tinker is enjoying his best spell for some years and we need to watch his horses. Daffy Jane has won three of her last five races and could go in again this week as she has several entries. She has progressed with each run and connections tell me they are looking to get Silvestre De Souza to ride wherever she goes. It’s worth noting Silvestre has won on Daffy Jane the last twice he has ridden her. Bashiba a good horse for the yard last season and will warrant respect if running at Musselburgh on Wednesday off 1lb lower… the horse ran well last week finishing second after being involved in scrimmaging… a winner without a penalty in my mind. Archie Perkins looks one to lookout for at Carlisle as he looks thrown in. Whatever Nigel Tinkler runs at the moment warrants respect.

William Haggas is in very good form at this time as I write. His team are in fabulous form especially his middle distance horses. Jurran is a very interesting animal who has several entries this coming week after finishing second at Redcar recently where he was caught near the line… he is one to look out for especially if he heads North to run.  Other interesting horses from the yard include Field Gun, Croque Monsieur and Nomoathaj between them having several entries so we need to watch carefully where they are entered AND actually where they run. William knows how to place horses.

Gordon Elliot is one of the leading trainers in Ireland and is better known for his National Hunt horses but he does sent some runners out on the Flat. So far the yard has had 41 winners this season in UK and Ireland as Gordon sources races for certain horses in the North of England usually Perth or Carlisle but Sedgefield, Hexham and other northern tracks need to lookout for Gordon’s runners in the coming weeks as he continues his search for winners. He actually sent two over to Saratoga in USA recently. This man is not frightened of any opposition. Ignore Gordon’s entries and you could be making a very big mistake. Study his entries as he may have six or seven horses entered in one race then look at which one he actually runs. You must also back those he runs in the north of UK  especially with Richard Johnson onboard. Gordon likes quality horses but he also likes quality riders.

High Roller is a pay as you win service and you get no more than one tip per day. From September the service will become bigger and better because the selections are going to become very selective so some days there will be zero selection. Everything else remains the same… free to join… £10 for a winning selection. The aim is a 65% strike rate like in July. To join free follow the link below.

CLICK HERE AND REGISTER FOR FREE!

Europe Can Win The Shergar Cup Without Dettori – By Ian Hudson

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It’s debateable whether horse racing lends itself to the team format but Saturday’s Shergar Cup at Ascot is now established in the racing calendar. The concept is something different and the meeting usually attracts a decent crowd but ultimately it’s the ability of the horses that determines the outcome. Frankie Dettori was provisionally named in the team representing Europe but he has to honour riding commitments for John Gosden at Newmarket.

There are four three-jockey teams competing in the Shergar Cup. The meeting features six handicaps over various distances with a maximum field of 10 runners. Each jockey sits out one race so everybody has five chances to put points on the board for their team. Points are awarded for finishing positions and the team that wins most points over the six races wins the Shergar Cup. Even without Dettori Europe can beat the UK and Ireland, Rest of the World and girl’s teams and win the Shergar Cup.

The event is named in honour of the horse that won the Derby in 1981. The horse was then taken from his stable in Ireland and the mystery is still unsolved. Sadly Shergar’s jockey at Epsom, Walter Swinburn, is also no longer with us and the Ascot occasion will be in his memory as well as the best horse he rode. The European team members are Gerald Mosse from France. Andrasch Starke from Germany and Per-Anders Graberg from Sweden and that looks like a potentially winning team.

Team make-ups change from year to year so past form is not a massive factor in determining the most likely winners of this year’s Shergar Cup.  However, the most recent winners of the competition are as follows:

2015 Girl’s – 2016 Great Britain and Ireland – 2017 Rest of the World

The Shergar Cup has been likened to the Ryder Cup in golf but it differs in one very important way. Points are awarded to jockeys but the best jockey in the world can’t win races on inferior horses and the best horse in a race can compensate if the rider is not the most proficient in the race. As a team concept the fundamental flaw is that usually the best handicapped horse will prevail and the jockey is a passenger. Jockey ability is a factor but not the most important element of a partnership.

Rides are allocated by a draw but maybe the organisers would like to see a different team win each year. Possibly Team Europe could be given the best rides but the event must be seen to be fair and have integrity because the races are still betting events. There will be TV coverage on ITV so betting turnover will be healthy. Punters will still be backing horses based on the form and not the jockey and team they represent. Dettori is possibly the only jockey that would be backed blindly but he is riding elsewhere.

Two of the six races are confined to horse aged threes, another one allows horses of that age and older to take part and horse aged four and older qualify for the other three races. The race distances range from five furlongs to two miles and each contest is a Class 2 or Class 3 affair. There is a narrow range of weights and even without the team element the card features six trappy handicaps. Luck in the draw allocating rides will have a huge impact on the outcome of the Shergar Cup.

The jockeys and horses have different levels of ability so identifying the leading contenders could be difficult. You could back the best handicapped horse in each race and the ratings can be used to identify those horses. It’s a team event but the normal rules of racing and handicapping apply.

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Celtic Can Beat AEK Athens Tonight 

Celtic are making their usual uncomplicated progress to the Champions League group stages because they are in their comfort zone during the qualifying rounds. They have the players to get past the top teams from some of the minor European nations but getting out of the group is another kettle of fish. Celtic. In every year since 2013 Celtic have played in the first round proper but never gone beyond the last 16. The Scottish champions have scored three goals in four of their last five matches and a similar tally without reply would probably be enough to qualify for the group stages of the Champions League at the expense of AEK Athens. CELTIC are 3/4 with Ladbrokes to beat the Greek champions in Glasgow tonight.

Hampshire won the One Day Cup over 50 overs so could claim to be the best county in limited overs cricket. They beat all comers in the white ball format but have not translated the form into the T20 Blast. Hampshire have played nine fixtures in the South Group but have only recorded one win. Their net run rate is -0.947 while Somerset have a positive return to the tune of 0.892. These figures measure the balance of runs scored and runs conceded and are an excellent form guide. Despite playing at home Hampshire must be opposed and SOMERSET are 8/11 with William Hill to win this match in the shortest format of the game.

There are six Flat meetings in Britain and Ireland today and even with the value of the pound Sligo stages the most lucrative meeting which offers €117,000 in prize money which equates to over a hundred grand in pounds. The most on offer in the UK is the £79,000 up for grabs at Kempton so yet again Ireland has more prize money on average per meeting. The biggest pot at Sligo is for the handicap over one mile and four furlongs and change at 7.30pm. Dancing Doll is the favourite but the horse has a poor win strike rate. ZOFFANYIA is a progressive horse who could improve to win this race and that outcome is 10/3 with Coral.

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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India Will Have Conditions That Suit At Edgbaston 

India are statistically the best Test team in the world and England are fifth in the standings for the five day format of the game. After the phoney war of the One Day Internationals and T20 matches today sees the start of a Test series over five matches. The positive nature of limited overs cricket has permeated the longest version of the game so early finishes could be a feature of the series and matches may not extend to the fifth day. Conditions will favour INDIA for the rest of the summer and at Edgbaston for the First Test which the visitors can win at 9/4 with William Hill.

It seems incongruous that a race track near a small harbour city on the west coast of Ireland should stage one of the richest handicap chases of the season. The Galway Plate has a prize fund of €250,000 which dwarfs the money on offer for the biggest handicap chases of the season in Britain and only the Grand National is worth more. The leading trainers in Ireland are well represented and nine of the 22 runners are trained by Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliott. However, British raider Harry Fry may have the answer. On form and ratings  DRUMCLIFF, the only UK runner,  could claim the top prize and that outcome is 16/1 with Paddy Power.

 

The highlight of the second day of Glorious Goodwood is the Sussex Stakes. The race is a Group 1 contest for colts, geldings and fillies aged three and older over one mile. Horses from the Classic year carry seven pounds less than the older generation and that concession could be key in today’s race. Four of the 8 declared runners are aged three and the two market leaders are from that age group. Without Parole and Expert Eye both impressed at Royal Ascot but one of the older horses could have been underestimated. LIGHTNING SPEAR has the experience at the highest level to cause an upset and the horse is 10/1 with bet365 to win the Sussex Stakes.