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Today’s Sports Betting Preview & BONUS Tips – By Rick Elliott

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Toffees Can Chew Up The Clarets And Drink In Three Points 

Everton looked out of the running for seventh place and qualification for the Europa League in March but a run of stunning results at home have brought them back in the mix. It’s debatable whether the Europa League is a gift or a chore and it was certainly a negative for Burnley at the start of this season. They are at Goodison Park this evening for Everton’s last home match and three points for the hosts would put pressure on the other sides in contention to be the best of the rest after the big six. Burnley have little to play for and Everton have only conceded in two of nine fixtures. EVERTON TO WIN TO NIL is the best bet at 17/10 with Betfair.

There are intriguing fixtures in other sports including the One Day International between Ireland and England in Dublin, which starts at 10.45am. England are the number one ranked team in ODI cricket and favourites to win the World Cup in England this summer. The batting line-up is not the first choice one today so taking short prices against Ireland in a friendly is not as attractive as backing ENGLAND at 9/4 with Coral to win the World Cup. 

Castleford play at home against Warrington in the Super League in a fixture that is not difficult to call.  Statistically on points scored and conceded and home advantage the handicap should be seven against the visitors. The bookmaker’s line this morning is a six point’s start for Castleford so there is no bet in this market. It could be more of a dour struggle than a point’s fest but bookies are not betting on total points this morning for a match that WARRINGTON can win at 1/2 with Coral. 

Life after Ruby Walsh continues at Punchestown today with the fourth day of their festival and the highlight is the track’s Champion Hurdle over two miles at 5.30. Buveur D’Air fell in the Cheltenham version and Apple’s Jade underperformed. Melon was giving Buveur D’Air a scare at Aintree before falling in a race won by Supasundae on heavy ground. SUMMERVILLE BOY was a top novice last season and can upset the apple cart by winning today at 40/1 with Betfair. 

Today’s Sports Betting Preview & BONUS Tips – By Rick Elliott

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Tottenham Can Take A Crucial Lead To Holland

Tottenham are the only club in the last four of the Champions League who have not been champions of Europe before. In fact, Liverpool (5 times), Barcelona (5) and Ajax (4) are multiple winners of the competition in its current guise or the European Cup. Tottenham have not even played in the final but that could all change this year. ‘The names written on the Cup’ could apply this season because Tottenham have pulled off some unlikely results during progress to the semi-finals. Even now they are without their talisman, Harry Kane, but he has not been missed in the Champions League which TOTTENHAM are 9/2 with Coral to win for the first time. 

The next hurdle to overcome is Ajax and it’s the first leg of the semi-finals at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this evening. Ajax have knocked out Real Madrid and Juventus in the last two rounds and won the away leg in both ties. However, they played the first match at home so knew what was required in the reverse fixture on the road. The dynamic is different in this tie and Ajax cannot be gung-ho from the start. Tottenham have conceded just two goals in seven matches at home and preventing the away goal will be paramount tonight. TOTTENHAM may not achieve that objective but can take a lead to Amsterdam by winning the match at 6/4 with Paddy Power. 

On the first day of the Punchestown Festival and the decision to take coverage of Irish racing to a new platform is coming home to roost. Every meeting in Ireland was free to view for Sky subscribers on At The Races. However, there is now an additional charge to watch racing from Ireland. Punchestown is Ireland’s version of the Cheltenham Festival and Willie Mullins always sends a strong team and today he races some superstars. Arguably the best performance at Cheltenham or Aintree was by MIN at the Grand National meeting and the horse is 8/13 with Coral to follow up in the Champion Chase over two miles at Punchestown (5.30) today. 

The Effects of The Draw On Flat Turf Courses In Ireland – By High Roller Racing

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Do you back horses on the Flat in Ireland? Do you take into account the draw your horse has? Were you aware that the draw can affect the chance that your horse has of winning?

I will try to deal with courses and distances that have a bias and if I don’t mention a track or distance it is because there is normally no bias.

The Curragh has a slight bias to high drawn horses over 7, 8, and 10 furlong trips. In general this is a very fair course with sprint distances seemingly has no bias.

On the all weather at Dundalk middle to low drawn horses seem to have an advantage and approximately 50 per cent of winners in handicaps over six furlongs have been won by the bottom third in the draw when 10 plus runners. Over a mile there seems slight favour in a low draw. The remaining distances, including 7 furlongs, seem to have little bias.

Gowran Park is a very fair track but over 7 furlongs on soft ground a high draw seems an advantage but on firm ground it’s a low draw that appears better.

Down Royal has a favour in sprints for middle to high draw. This is no surprise though as the highest draw is next to the rail. The 5 furlong trip turns sharply right two furlongs out this further advances the high draw bias. Over 7 furlongs the middle to high draw is again favourable.

Fairyhouse has a bias on softer ground in 6 and 7 furlong races where a high draw is most important. Over 9 and 10 furlongs there is a bias towards high drawn numbers and the low drawn horses struggle to join the party at Fairyhouse.

Ballinrobe has an advantage to high drawn horses over 5,6 and 7 furlongs.

Bellewstown has an interesting stall bias requiring usually a middle to high draw in sprints but a low draw over a mile. It is very interesting that the horse drawn in stall one over a mile in 10 plus runner handicaps have won 6 of 16 races here in recent seasons.

Cork has no bias in its sprint distance races but over 7 furlongs you need a high draw and results show this to be a very strong bias. Horses drawn in stalls 1 – 4 seem to have very poor results. Low drawn horses also struggle over 8 and 10 furlong trips where a middle to high draw has a definite advantage.

Galway seems to stage a lot of races over 7 furlongs and it is shown a high draw seems essential. The bias seems to even out over 8 furlongs yet low drawn horses seem to struggle over 12 furlongs at Galway.

The courses mentioned today seem to have the most interesting of bias to draw in Ireland. Courses not mentioned seem to have little bias overall.

   

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Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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If Leicester Can Win The Premier League at 5000/1…..

The DOUBLE on Liechtenstein to beat Italy and Malta to beat Spain in Euro 2020 qualifying pays 4488/1 with bet365. The odds are smaller than on Leicester to win the Premier League in 2015/16 so stranger things happen. Apparently there are no easy games in international football but these are for Italy and Spain. The fixtures represent the biggest disparity in FIFA rankings and both former world champions should win theses matches without conceding a goal. Republic of Ireland’s home match against Georgia is more difficult to call but the Irish should secure three points.

The international football standings are a good form guide. The rankings collate results in tournaments when results matter. Friendlies are used by managers to experiment but a team will play the best available starting 11 in the European Championships and World Cup, qualifying and finals. ROI have a ranking of 34 which puts them 57 places above Georgia. The nations have met nine times and Ireland have won eight of those fixtures and there has been one draw. Past results and current form suggest IRELAND are the team to back at 8/13 with Coral.   

The racing in Britain features Class 4 and Class 5 contests over the jumps at Hereford and Hexham. There is also some ordinary racing at the evening meeting on the All Weather at Wolverhampton. The best race of the day is the chase over two miles and almost four furlongs at Clonmel (4.20). The race features two horses that have won races at the Cheltenham Festival in Arctic Fire and Yorkhill. 

The latter lost his way over fences after winning one of the novice hurdle races at the Festival in 2016 and the JLT Novices’ Chase the following year. However, that level of form makes the Willie Mullins trained runner well ahead on ratings despite some poor runs over the last two seasons. YORKHILL should be backed at the best price and with bookmakers that offer Best Odds Guaranteed.     

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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All Manchester Cup Final Gets Closer

The next stage of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s job interview for the permanent manager of Manchester United is the club’s FA Cup quarter-finals tie at Wolves. Fixtures at this stage will be decided after extra time and penalties as there is no provision for replays. United have not conceded in seven of their last nine matches in the competition. Solskjaer won the Cup with the club as a player and can keep alive the dream of doing it as the boss by progressing to the quarter finals. MANCHESTER UNITED are 4/6 with Ladbrokes to qualify for the next round. 

United and City have never met in a major final but that can come a step closer when the Blues knock out Swansea today. City have played eight matches in three Cup competitions in 2019 and have scored 36 goals. They do have some injury doubts but the squad is huge while Swansea’s top scorer is unlikely to start. The match precedes a two-week international break so there will be no need to rest players for bigger upcoming matches. Pep Guardiola should put out a strong starting 11 so SERGIO AGUERO to score two or more goals is the best bet at 3/1.  

We have tipped CRYSTAL PALACE to win the FA Cup so they should be backed at 11/10 with Ladbrokes to eliminate Watford in today’s other tie. The jumps racing bandwagon moves on from Cheltenham to Uttoxeter where the Midlands Grand National takes place today at 3.35. One of the highlights of the Festival was Bryony Frost and Frodon winning the Ryanair Chase. She rides the horse with the best Racing Post Rating at in the Midlands version of the National. MILANSBAR has the form to win the race and that outcome is 8/1 with Ladbrokes.  

Wales must beat Ireland in Cardiff today to complete the Six Nations Grand Slam but could come up short. If the home side fail to win England will win the title as long as they beat Scotland at Twickenham. England will know the result from the Principality Stadium at the start of their match. There could be an extra spring in the step of their players because IRELAND are fancied to beat Wales at 11/10.  

This Weeks Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Paul Nicholls is The Trainer In Form Heading In To Cheltenham

It’s the jumps meeting that matters most and the Olympics of National Hunt racing. The Cheltenham Festival dominates a sport like no other single event in any other sport. Most of the biggest betting races of the year take place at Cheltenham over the next four days. There are 40 Grade 1 jumps races each season and 14 are run at the Festival which features the main championship races over hurdles and fences.

The betting for the leading trainer is dominated by the Irish contingent of Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott who are a combined price of 4/6 to be the top trainer. The shortest priced British trainer is Nicky Henderson but the man in form is PAUL NICHOLLS who can be backed at 14/1 with bet365 to train most winners at the 2019 Cheltenham Festival.

By hook or by crook Manchester United and Tottenham are through to the quarter finals of the Champions League. Manchester City take a lead into the home leg of their last 16 tie against Schalke and should progress. Liverpool have a tough task in beating Bayern Munich in Germany after a goalless draw at Anfield in the first match. Real Madrid and PSG are out of the competition after being prominent in the outright betting. ENGLAND should have three representatives in the last eight and it could still be four so look interesting at 4/5 with Coral to be the winning nation.

The Players Championship is known as golf’s fifth major due to the quality of the field it attracts. There are rarely any absentees from the top 50 players in the world rankings and it is the prize players crave the most after the four majors. The championship has a fixed home at TPC Sawgrass which is famous for the island green on the 17th hole. It is a course that puts a premium on accuracy over distance and suits JUSTIN ROSE who is 16/1 with bet365 to win the title.

It’s the final match day in the Six Nations which has come down to a showdown between Wales and Ireland in Cardiff. Only a draw would let England in to win the title and they are rare in the sport. Wales have a superior average point’s difference of three over Ireland and home advantage is worth about six points. On that basis WALES -2 is the bet at 10/11 with Coral.

This Weeks Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott 

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Blues Could Have Good Derby Day

Everton fans don’t really hold much of a grudge against Liverpool but Goodison Park will be rocking if the home team wins the Merseyside derby. Not only will it be revenge for the freak winning goal for Liverpool in the corresponding fixture at Anfield in December. An Everton win would also have implications for their local rivals quest to be the champions of England for the first time in 29 years. Liverpool have won just one of five fixtures on the road and EVERTON can make that record worse by beating their neighbours at 5/1 with Betfair. So a win for the Blues. 

Passions are not quite so high in west London as in Liverpool on derby day. Chelsea visit a Fulham side who look destined for relegation to the Championship and a win would keep them in touch with the top four. Fulham are on their third manager this season. A new appointment usually sees a brief improvement in results but Scott Parker is in charge of a defense that has still conceded 63 goals in the Premier League. That total should increase to day without reply as a CHELSEA WIN TO NIL is the recommendation at 6/4 with Paddy Power. More joy for the Blues.  

There is more prize money on offer at Leopardstown in Ireland today that at the two UK meetings combined. Ireland run some of their major races on Sunday while in Britain the racing is usually average. The richest race of the day is the handicap chase over two miles and five and a half furlongs at Leopardstown (4.15). Monatomic is an improving horse who should relish the trip but Jett has something to prove. However, on ratings and the jockey’s allowance of seven pounds KYLECRUE is in good enough form to prevail at 8/1 with Betfair. The colours are not blue but football teams wearing shirts of that colour in derby matches should have a good day. 

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Racing Continues In Ireland At Dundalk 

There are mixed messages coming from certain vested interests about the implications of the outbreak of equine flu that has led to the cancellation of racing in Britain for six days. One high profile trainer has used the word “unthinkable” for the potential damage to the industry but bookmakers “hope for a swift return”. 

The facts are that there has been an outbreak of equine flu and there will be no racing in Britain until next Wednesday at the earliest. The British Horse Racing Authority (BHA) have taken a precautionary measure and will review the situation with regards the resumption of racing on Monday. My view is that the early action will prevent an epidemic… but I’m not a vet! 

The lockdown of racing in Britain does not currently affect meetings in Ireland but there will be no British runners. That means tonight’s All Weather fixture at Dundalk goes ahead and there is some overseas action for those who want a bet. The 7.30pm race at Dundalk is a decent contest over two miles. Kerosin has proven ability in former days to be a major player and Chess Grand Master is unexposed at this level. However, on form and ratings the progressive RASHHAN is the horse to back at 5/4 with bet365.The show goes on in Ireland but racing in Britain has been halted.  

Tonight’s live football action in England is the Championship meeting between the home side in Aston Villa and Sheffield United. The visitors are 11 points ahead of their opponents in the current table. Villa have won just twice in their last 11 league fixtures and have conceded 27 goals at home in the Championship over 15 matches. If SHEFFIELD UNITED win tonight they will be top of the table at least until other fixtures tomorrow. On form that is a feasible outcome at 31/20 with Ladbrokes. 

Wigan and Leeds have got new coaches so both sides may take some time to reach the level that has seen the clubs win 13 Grand finals in total. They each lost their first fixture in the Super League so another defeat would be damaging. No side since 2005 have suffered defeat in their opening two matches and won the Grand Final. Wigan also have to deal with a two point’s deduction for breaking salary cap rules. The handicap seems too big so LEEDS +10 is the bet at 10/11 with Ladbrokes. 

This Weeks Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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It Could Be Liverpool Again At Last For Their Fans

In a busy week for international sport the Premier League reconvenes with a full programme of fixtures this week and over the weekend. It’s now dawning on Everton and Manchester United fans that Liverpool could be the champions of England for the first time since 1990. It’s too soon to write off Manchester City but this is a two-horse race. The defending champions have marginally more difficult fixtures overt the next seven days and Liverpool’s four point lead is unlikely to be reduced. LIVERPOOL cannot be opposed at 8/11 with Betfair.

England suffered the nightmare scenario of a defeat to the West Indies in the First Test by 381 runs. That came after a declaration by the match winners in their second innings so it could have been an even bigger drubbing. The consensus amongst the pundits is that England selected the wrong team and played rubbish cricket which was obvious. It’s difficult to see how they can reverse the form for the second match which begins on Thursday. WEST INDIES are 5/2 with Ladbrokes to go two-nil up in the three Test series.

Justin Rose returns to the European Tour to play in the Saudi International this week. The world number one recorded a hugely impressive win in the Farmers Insurance Open on Sunday. The 2013 US Open winner has a team in place that supports his ambition to win more majors. He has a good record at Augusta so JUSTIN ROSE is the ante post tip to win the 2019 US Masters at 11/1 with Betfair.

This weekend sees the start of the Six Nations in rugby union. The three home teams are handicap favourites including Ireland against England. The handicap has been set at 9 points which seems somewhat excessive. Ireland have won the last two meetings by a total of 13 points and England won the previous two fixtures. Recent results suggest ENGLAND +9 is the bet at 10/11 with Ladbrokes.

The highlight of the racing week is the Dublin Racing Festival on Saturday and Saturday. The timing is deal for Cheltenham Festival bound horses and there will be some key trials. Running plans for the weekend have not been confirmed so the graded races and handicaps could have a different shape to the state of affairs today. At this early stage the banker is FOOTPAD at 11/8 with Betfair in the Dublin Steeplechase.

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

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Wolves Can Hold Their Own Against Liverpool

Wolves were one of the best sides to be promoted from the Championship to the Premier League when they came up last season and have had no problems taking on the big boys. They are at home to unbeaten Liverpool tonight who will end the first half of the season at the top of the league if they pick up three points at Molyneux. The betting suggests an away win is on the cards but Wolves would disagree. The club with a strong Portuguese influence can avoid defeat. 

The home team have met sides from the top six five times this season and have only suffered one defeat. Wolves beat Chelsea at home earlier this month and drew the other three fixtures against the Premier League elite. The Liverpool defence is disrupted by injuries but Wolves are just about at full strength. Wolves play deep and hit teams on the counter attack. They are just one of three teams to take points of Manchester City this season so the DRAW is the bet at 7/2 with bet365. 

There are eight second round matches in the PDC World Championship today. Despite having a pint of beer thrown on him during the walk-on Michael Van Gerwen kept his composure to record a comfortable first round win. Several seeds on the other side of the draw are gone from the darts tournament at the Alexandra Palace in London. MVG at his best will take some beating but the ante post tip, MICHAEL SMITH, has looked good and can still be backed at 8/1 with Ladbrokes.     

There is an excellent card at Ascot today featuring a novice chase and novice hurdle worth almost £20,000 to the winner. Lil Rockerfeller has the best hurdles form of the four runners contesting the chase over two miles and five furlongs at 2.30 but unseated the rider at Cheltenham a week ago. The Grade 2 hurdle for inexperienced horses at 1.55 over just less than two miles looks open. On form figures THISTLE DO NICELY is a big price at 16/1 and is the each way nap.  

Unowhatimeanharry Is The Nap Of Saturday At Ascot  – By Ian Hudson 

There is no racing in Britain and Ireland for three days which means Saturday’s fixtures are the last betting action before the start of two major jumps festivals in Britain and Ireland on Boxing Day. The JLT Long Walk Hurdle is the highlight of Saturday’s card at Ascot and Unowhatimeanharry is the horse to back to cover some of the expenses over Christmas. Kempton and Leopardstown are the venues for the main holiday meetings in Britain and Ireland and the racing is superb at both tracks. 

The spell from Saturday to Tuesday is the longest break of the season and the only blank days in the calendar. Good Friday was another protected day but now the All-Weather finals at Lingfield are the highlight of the Easter period for some racing fans. The lack of racing from Saturday adds to the anticipation for the racing on Boxing Day when the King George V1 Chase at Kempton is the highlight. There are eight Grade 1 races during the four day Leopardstown Christmas Festival. The meeting features many trials for the championship races at the Cheltenham Festival.  

The Long Walk Hurdle is a Grade 1 race run over three miles and one furlong and there are 12 obstacles to be jumped. The race is one of the major trials for the stayers’ hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and since 1971 five horse have won both races. Thistlecrack was the latest in the 2015-16 season and that horse is now entered in the King George on Boxing Day. Thistelcrack won that race in 2016 which was just his fourth race over fences. The horse ran pleasingly in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November and was not far off his best on ratings. There should be some improvement for the King George and Thistlecrack is a leading contender.  

Bristol De Mai won the Haydock Grade 1 for the second year in a row. The horse will run in the King George which is the second leg of a series which offers a one million pound bonus for any horse that wins the three most prestigious staying chases of the season. Bristol De Mai is ideally suited to Haydock but Kempton and Cheltenham are not his forte which means winning the King George and the third leg of the bonus series, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, looks beyond him. Thistlecrack can win the King George for the second time and get right in the mix for the Gold Cup. 

Unowhatimeanharry won the Long Walk Hurdle in 2016 but could only come third in the stayers’ hurdle the following March. Sam Spinner won the race last year but then disappointed at the Cheltenham Festival. The Ascot feature has a history of producing multiple winners and Big Buck’s and Reve De Sivola won it three times in as many years. Baracouda is the only four times winner from 2000 to 2004 only missing out in 2002. The trainer, Francois Douman, has the same record while Richard Johnson is the leading jockey with four wins between 1999 and 2013. 

The last 10-year-old to win the Long Walk Hurdle was Deano’s Beano in 2002 and Unowhatimeanharry is now that age. The horse was the best staying hurdler of two seasons ago but did not produce his form at the Festival. He was back to his best in winning the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury at the end of last month. 

Unowhatimeanharry can win at Ascot on Saturday and thus again become a leading contender for the staying hurdle race that matters most at Cheltenham next March.