My blog

Just another WordPress site

  • Blog Home
  • Latest News
  • Members Area
  • About Betfan
  • Contact

An Eminently Decent Chance To Beat The Favourite – Rick Elliott

July 7, 2017 By admin Leave a Comment

The Eclipse at Sandown on Saturday looks like being one of the races of the season and Eminent can make his age allowance tell to win the Group 1 contest. The all aged race is over one mile and two furlongs and features horses placed in the Derby and who won at Royal Ascot. The conditions give Eminent a great chance to provide the trainer, Martyn Meade, with his first success at the highest level.

The race formerly known as the Eclipse Stakes has traditionally been sponsored by Coral and is now known as the Coral-Eclipse. That bookmaker has merged with Ladbrokes and they are not an Authorised Betting Partner. Firms that have not signed up are not welcome as race sponsors so Coral’s involvement could end after this year’s renewal. The issue of race sponsorship has led Ladbrokes to end their association with the St Leger which will now be sponsored by William Hill.

Bookmakers have been great investors in British racing through sponsorship. Obviously they don’t back a race for altruistic reasons and some of the most competitive handicaps have bookmaker’s names in their titles. The Cheltenham Gold Cup was sponsored by Betfred as part of their deal with the Tote but that association has ended. Stan James still put their name to the Champion Hurdle at the Festival.

The Eclipse is open to horses aged three and older so in theory there could be multiple winners. In fact five horses have won the race twice but not since Halling obliged in 1995 and 1996. Lester Piggott is the leading jockey with five wins between 1951 and 1977. The span of 26 years illustrates how long Piggott was riding in the best races and his nine Derby victories were from 1954 to 1983. Frankie Dettori won the Eclipse in 1998 so has some years to go to match Piggott’s range of Eclipse winning years.

Dettori is the regular jockey on Jack Hobbs but missed the ride at Royal Ascot through injury and he is still on the sidelines. The horse was second in the Derby in 2015 and won the Irish equivalent but was disappointing at the Royal Meeting. Jack Hobbs was eighth of eight horses in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes. However, he was only about 5 lengths adrift of the winner, Highland Reel in the Group 1 feature. A rating of 123 makes Jack Hobbs not a forlorn hope for the Eclipse.

The leading trainer won his six Eclipses between 1909 and 1923 and four owners have the record with five wins. They include Coolmore and Godolphin who have won 10 of the last 22 renewals. Cliffs Of Moher is the ante post favourite and the horse is trained by Aidan O’Brien for Coolmore. He has won the race five times so would become the joint leading trainer if one of his runners obliged on Saturday. On odds and ratings Cliffs Of Moher is his best chance.

The Derby runner-up has been backed for the Eclipse this week having been narrowly beaten by his retired stable mate Wings Of Eagles at Epsom last month. O’Brien had a positive report on his charge when quoted in the Racing Post:

“Everything has gone well with Cliffs Of Moher since Epsom and we’ve been very happy. We still have quite a few in at the moment but Cliffs Of Moher is the horse we are looking at for the race.”

The trainer won the Eclipse with Hawk Wing in 2002 and Oratorio in 2005 after defeat in the Derby. The race sponsors believe Cliffs Of Moher will be the SP favourite. The horse has been the best backed in the week before the race.

Cliffs Of Moher ran to a Racing Post Rating of 119 in the Derby while Eminent’s best figure is 117 in the same race. The former is the worthy favourite as both horses are running off the same weight. Eminent was nudged entering the final furlong in the Derby and was unable to quicken. The horse had no luck in running and 10 furlongs could be his optimum distance. That factor could see Eminent winning the 2017 Coral-Eclipse on Saturday.

Best Wishes,

BetFan

Filed Under: Betfan, Horse Racing, Sports Tagged With: Jack Hobbs, Racing Post Rating, Royal Ascot, William Hill

Betting Opportunity Eye-Catchers

July 1, 2015 By admin Leave a Comment

Well a big pat on the back for the England womens football team reaching the World Cup semi finals. They face a tough task against Japan if they are to get to the final but I would not put it past them.

It’s amazing to think that in our pathetic men in the Brazil World Cup were on a bonus of £350,000 a man and the girls are only on £35,000 each. It begs the question do the F.A. think that a woman is only worth 10% of a man?

Jack Hobbs upheld the Derby form by winning the Irish equivalent over the weekend giving John Gosden another big winner however I must take issue with Gosden over his comments about Adam Kirbys riding at Royal Ascot.

The trainer was quoted as saying that Kirbys riding was more appropriate to the Winter all-weather tracks and not the big meetings. This is highly patronising considering Jack Hobbs is a winner on an artificial surface and also Kirby who rode a four timer at Windsor this week is thought by many to be a splendid jockey. Perhaps Mr Gosden is getting to big for his boots.

This weeks Howies Hottie goes in the 4.30 Thirsk in the shape of David Omearas Rex Imperator. The gelding has been running over longer and a drop to 6 furlongs should suit especially as he has dropped a long way in the weights and now looks very competitive.

I have to report that both Fold4Gold and Betting Opportunity have had a shocking June and things can only improve to get us back to our profit levels of earlier in the season.

You see with most BetFan services we like to keep you informed when we have bad runs not just when we are hitting the target. There are many tipsters out there who shout from the roof tops when winning but keep very quite when things are going wrong.

This is what sets BetFans tipsters apart as it’s transparency all the way and all readers and members are kept in the loop rain or shine.

Now most people would tell you the best time to join a tipster is when he has had a good run but my logic is different as I believe the best time to become a member is after a bad run as things will turn and you will be in at the start of a profitable period not when it has already reached its peak.

It reminds me of the story of a lady who during the great depression in 1930 America when all and sundry were getting rid of there stocks and shares she was buying as much as possible at rock bottom prices and by the end of the decade she was one of the wealthiest people in the country. It shows you it pays to go against the tide at times.

Tomorrow evening I’m at Hove greyhound stadium to see my girlfriend Barbaras dog Leithems Desire(Winston) run in a trial stakes for the Sussex Cup. So if you are in the area come and say hello. The meeting is being televised on sky and also Racing Post internet T.V.

EYECATCHERS

The eyecatchers continue in superb form with recent winners including Deauville Prince, Tizlove Regardless, Mullionheir and Black Caesar.

FLAT RACING

Shaakis trainer M.Tregoning – He was denied a clear run when making his challenge at Salisbury and would have be involved in the finish for sure.

Automated trainer C.Brittain – The gelding went off like bat from hell and did well to finish 4th with a more considerate ride he should be up to winning a small race.

Major Jack trainer R.Charlton – Everytime the jockey went for a run he was blocked and I’m sure with a clear passage he would have won.

Suegioo trainer M.Botti – Finished strongly from an impossible position in the Northumberland Plate and there must be a big staying prize for him this year.

The Carbonator trainer P.Prendeagast – Needed every yard of the 7 furlongs at Newcastle to make the frame and a step up to the mile can do the trick for this Irish trained gelding.

In Salutem trainer D.Condon – The gelding was staying on over 5 furlongs at the Curragh and an increase in trip is a must.

Back next Wednesday have a good week and be lucky.

Howard Davis-Shaw.
Betting Opportunity
http://go.betfan.com/1000/317

Filed Under: Betfan, Horse Racing, Soccer, Sports Tagged With: Adam Kirbys, Betting Opportunity, Brazil World Cup, Jack Hobbs

The Shrewd Tipster

June 30, 2015 By admin Leave a Comment

After over a year of writing the Tuesday newsletter it’s time to give someone else a chance, I’m not going away and will still be tipping and blogging. I’m sure you’re fed up with me going on about over watering, terrible on course SPs etc. All of which happened again last week!

I always get asked is there anything in racing you would change and as much as I hate looking for excuses when a horse gets beat, the performance of some jockeys recently has been shocking. I believe they are riding too much, two meetings a day and up to 12 rides means they can’t be focused, I would limit them to one meeting a day. That way they can focus on track draw bias, the pace of each race, increase their knowledge of each mount, and be more alert, less stressed and perform better.

We landed a few nice free tips and ante post bets, the one that got away was Jack Hobbs at 50/1 for the Derby, I could have retired off of that.

Hopefully I’ve explained my betting methods and strategy that has in some way helped you become a better punter.

The one piece of advice I would always give is:

NEVER BET A HORSE TO DO SOMETHING IT HAS NEVER DONE BEFORE.

Nobody knows if a horse will improve, for example, stepping up in trip, wearing blinkers for the first time, running on different going, wearing a tongue strap etc. Stick to what conditions and equipment the horse has shown its best form in.

If you follow your rules you will become more disciplined, analytical, bet less and beat the SP, allowing you to make your betting on horse racing pay. You will also find you enjoy it more. I strongly recommend specialising in particular types of races as it’s very time consuming analysing each race, in fact it’s impossible to dedicate enough time to this task. I generally have about 300 bets in a calendar year, so be patient, never chase losses and don’t bet when you get an urge, your time will come.

My Punt of The Day: 5:00 Brighton – ZAEEM – Win Bet

Back next Tuesday.

Jimmy Welsh
The Shrewd Tipster
http://go.betfan.com/1000/295

Filed Under: Betfan, Horse Racing, Sports Tagged With: Jack Hobbs, Jimmy Welsh, SP

Derby Delights – The Pitmen’s and The Irish

June 26, 2015 By admin Leave a Comment

Saturday sees two important races in two different countries, and both look fascinating for different reasons.

At Newcastle we have the John Smith’s Northumberland Plate, a Class 2 Handicap run over slightly longer than 2 miles. It’s the last time the Pitmen’s Derby will be run on grass following the decision to convert the turf to an all-weather surface.

We start at the top of the market with a horse in good form with two solid efforts this season already, and a decent draw in stall 3. Quest For More will hopefully be better behaved than his stablemate Huntsmans Close was at Royal Ascot last week, and his trainer Roger Charlton has his horses running well at the moment. George Baker knows the horse well and with a second over 16.5 furlongs at York last year, as well as a victory over 2 miles at Ascot in October, his stamina looks sure to hold up.

Seamour, for Brian Ellison, has won twice over hurdles as well as a competitive handicap at Haydock a month ago, and he looks to be building up towards this race. His wide draw is an obvious negative, which has already been reflected in the markets, but Silvestre De Sousa is an experienced jockey who won’t panic in the early stages as he looks to get himself well-positioned.

Brian Ellison is also represented by Totalize (second to Seamour in that race at Haydock), Montefeltro (9th behind Seamour and Totalize – you can see the pattern emerging here) and Buthelezi (who didn’t run in that race at Haydock).

We then come to a man who loves these big handicaps more than anyone, the owner Dr Marwan Koukash, and he has come with a strong hand here. Richard Fahey saddles Gabrial’s King (who was 8th at Haydock, ahead of Montefeltro but behind Seamour and Totalize) with Paul Hanagan an eye-catching jockey booking, Gabrial’s Star and Angel Gabrial, who won this race last year albeit from 7lb lower in the weights.

Suegioo also runs for Dr Koukash but Marco Botti is the trainer; he completed a Dr Koukash 1-2 last year (so has a 3lb swing with Angel Gabrial on that showing), and just for completeness, Suegioo also raced at Haydock. He was 4th in that race, and it might well be wise to simply watch it for yourself before you make any betting decisions on Saturday.

For those fans of Clever Cookie, of which I include myself, then the rain which started to fall at Newcastle on Thursday morning would have been a welcome sight indeed. Despite carrying top weight, Clever Cookie is a serious horse who was a real prospect for the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot before being ruled out on account of the quick ground. He will need more rain to suit, but has won impressively on both his starts this season and if he runs then he must have a decent chance.

Ed Dunlop saddles Oasis Fantasy, who looks well weighted but also has a wide draw to contend with. Blue Surf won at 20/1 over 12 furlongs at Epsom on Derby Day, whilst Nearly Caught and Rite To Reign finished 3rd and 5th in a race you might have seen mentioned at Haydock last month – the form lines are everywhere in this race!

Two more trainers who it would be impossible to ignore in Mark Johnston, whose stable is in fine form right now, and Willie Mullins pin their hopes on Notarised and Max Dynamite respectively.

So in short – keep an eye on the weather, make a note of the draw, and watch the handicap from Haydock on 23rd May – and most of all, be lucky!

Meanwhile over the water in Ireland….

Over at the Curragh, the Irish Derby sees a small but select field of 8 go to post. Half of those runners belong to Aidan O’Brien, who has won this race 7 of the last 8 runnings and 11 times in total, and his leading hope based on both his run in the Prix du Jockey Club and by virtue of Ryan Moore being on board is Highland Reel.

Giovanni Canaletto has a lot to do to overturn the English Derby form with both Storm The Stars and Jack Hobbs, whilst Qualify was a surprise winner of the English Oaks and takes her chance against the colts.

The last of the Ballydoyle runners is Kilimanjaro, who ran a creditable 6th in the English Derby but would do well to finish in that position in this race. Given how primed the Coolmore horses were for Royal Ascot, with several impressive winners and some unlucky runners up too, you would be a brave person to bet against Aidan O’Brien training the winner again, but if any horse from these shores can take the crown to England, it will be Jack Hobbs. His two runs behind Golden Horn at York and Epsom have proven beyond any doubt that this son of Halling belongs at the highest level, and his scope for physical growth mean he looks sure to improve as the season goes on. William Buick takes the reins and as long as he avoids trouble from the Coolmore lot he has every chance of getting Jack Hobbs a deserved Group-level victory.

Storm The Stars was a big improver at Epsom and has posted a better RPR for each one of his 5 starts this season, whilst Radanpour is another son of Sea The Stars who is unbeaten in his 3 career starts.

Dermot Weld and Pat Smullen deserve to be taken very seriously indeed, but it would be a turn-up if Radanpour were to beat the main protaganists. I basically ruled Carbon Dating out of any thoughts whatsoever at Epsom and whilst he outran his SP of 150/1 to finish 8th, I don’t see any reason to take him as a serious contender here.

Derek Potter

Filed Under: Back, Betting Knowledge, Betting News, Betting Systems, Lay, Make Money Online, Trading, WIN Tagged With: Brian Ellison, Clever Cookie, Jack Hobbs, Royal Ascot

Betting Opportunity Eye-Catchers

June 10, 2015 By admin Leave a Comment

I hope you all enjoyed the Derby even if you never backed the winner. Golden Horn was impressive and proved he got the trip under an excellent ride from Frankie.

It was great to see nine times Derby winning jockey Lester Piggott at the meeting and to hear his comments on the three best horses he has ever seen. They were Sea Bird, Ribot and Frankel ahead of anything he had ridden during his own riding career.

He also mentioned he would love to see a race between Golden Horn, French Derby victor New Bay and American Triple Crown champion American Pharoah oh and perhaps Arc winning filly Treve.

Lester also went on to say that the Epsom Derby in his opinion is still the greatest race on the planet and is the truest test for all race horses.

I wonder if any readers know who won the Derby back in 1915?

I know most will say there was no race as it was during the first World War however there was a race run over the full 12 furlongs but for British soldiers who were recuperating from injury.

The winner was a wounded soldier named Harry Wimblett who had the nickname Happy and he can go down in history as the only person to win the great race without a horse.

Today we have racing up and down the country and for Howies Hottie I’m off up to Beverly for the 3.0 a low grade handicap over the 5 furlongs.

Usually a low inside draw is an advantage and I’m hoping that Cadeaux Pearl can ping out from the one box and make all the running.

EYE-CATCHERS

FLAT

Elm Park trainer A.Balding – Now he finished down the field in the Derby after going off like a scalded cat and he is far better than that. When you consider he finished placed in the Dante behind Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs on his seasonal appearance you can see that wasn’t his true running. I wouldn’t mind betting on a different track with softer ground he would give the Derby first two plenty to think about.

Taaqah trainer J.Tate – Ran well at Chelmsford last week when making the frame and there is improvement to come.

Wildes trainer I.Williams – The gelding has taken time to reach peak fitness and ran a promising race despite finishing down the field.

Raddeh trainer Sir M.Stoute – Just touched off in a Doncaster handicap this late maturing type can improve further.

Canny Style trainer K.Ryan – After a slow start this juvenile made late headway and will know what is required next time out.

Back next Wednesday have a good week and be lucky.

Howard Davis-Shaw.
Betting Opportunity

http://go.betfan.com/1000/317

Filed Under: Betfan, Horse Racing, Sports Tagged With: Golden Horn, Jack Hobbs, New Bay, Sea Bird

Kevan Minter The Colonel

June 4, 2015 By admin Leave a Comment

Sir Michael Stoute’s Quick Defence (6/4 max bet) and May Queen (11/8 4 point bet) gave us a great start to the month on Monday after one of my most frustrating months on record it’s nice to be in the top five in the table, but as I keep telling you this is the hardest game in the world and your only as good as your last winner.

The 2015 Breakfast With The Stars at Epsom Downs Racecourse last week had everything – with three of the first four in the betting for Britain’s premier Classic, the Investec Derby, exercising on the course, France’s top trainer Andre Fabre flying in by helicopter, Frankie Dettori and lots of news, comment and opinion.

Connections, the media, Investec and some of the course’s annual members gathered to see six Classic contenders work on the unique undulating Epsom Downs course.

Golden Horn (John Gosden/Frankie Dettori) Jack Hobbs (John Gosden/William Buick) and Elm Park (Andrew Balding/Andrea Atzeni) are 7/4 favourite, 6/1 and 8/1 respectively after going through their paces ahead of the Group One Investec Derby, Britain’s richest race, on Saturday.

Star Of Seville (John Gosden/William Buick), Jazzi Top (John Gosden/Frankie Dettori) and Al Naamah (Andre Fabre/Gregory Benoist) were also exercised and are 7/1, 9/1 and 20/1 respectively for the Investec Oaks at Epsom Downs on Friday, June 5 with Coral, official betting partner.

John Gosden, the Newmarket trainer, said: “My jockeys still don’t do what I tell them to do. Frankie was perfect on Golden Horn, doing the right thing. I said pull up a good half furlong before the winning post and don’t go over the top but William had to have a feel (on Jack Hobbs) and went flying past the winning post and ended up right down by the stables.”

Golden Horn worked steadily and then a bit faster with Dickdoughtywylie (Rab Havlin – a 102 rated 10-furlong horse) over short of a mile and cruised up two and a half furlongs out before going to the front and passed the winning post two lengths ahead after being eased down.

Jack Hobbs, who also went over just less than a mile, came well clear of his work companion, Marzocco (Nick Mackay – a 108-rated stayer) in the closing stages.

Frankie Dettori declared: “The Dante is a telling factor at this stage and Golden Horn is thriving but don’t dismiss Jack Hobbs, who is a very good horse too. A mile and a half is definitely within Jack Hobbs’ compass and he is rawer than Golden Horn and has more improvement in him.”

“Golden Horn is a very laid-back character and the important thing was to get him to whiz around the bend. He gave me a good feel. But he is the sort of horse who needs the crowd to rev him up and he is a better horse on a raceday.”

Gosden said: “As Golden Horn walked down, and it was very kind of my wife to lend me a lead horse, Dickdoughtywhylie, he was wandering along asleep but his temperament is big plus – like his father Cape Cross. If you don’t relax early on, you don’t stay.”

“Jack Hobbs is an equally laidback horse but I noticed he was far more alert this morning, taking a look. He was very on the ball today and is a mighty improving horse.”

“It is great for all of us to have these two horses for the Investec Derby and tremendously exciting. If the ground is like this on Derby Day, then Jack Hobbs will be running.”

William Buick commented: “I got ran away with! Jack Hobbs felt very comfortable on the track and we did not press any buttons today but he swapped his leads down the hill. He is still learning about the game but every step he takes he is going forward.”

“He gave me a nice feel, handled the track and the ground which was perfect. All in all, I am very happy.”

“I rode Star Of Seville also this morning. She led well around there and has good form. She too enjoyed the ground and handled the track well so she has a good chance in the Oaks.”

Dettori continued: “I don’t know which of the two fillies I will be riding in the Oaks, both won their trials and both are entitled to run well. We have 10 days to decide which one I will ride. Both are in great nick.”

Gosden said: “I would have Frankie jock off Ryan and ride Crystal Zvezda! In all seriousness, I thought she was hugely impressive in the Newbury trial and she is the one to beat. I am teasing now but we will work out our Oaks fillies.”

“Jack Hobbs did not run until December 27 and Golden Horn won in October. I am pretty clear what Ballydoyle will do, even if they are staying tight-lipped themselves. I think they will leave their brilliant miler, Gleneagles, at a mile. It is a bit like asking me if I would have run Kingman in the Derby – no, I wouldn’t.”

“What a nice stallion Gleneagles will make if he is a top miler and that is their business. I think they will be tempted to supplement Found into the Investec Derby.”

Dettori recalled his first Derby victory on Authorized (2007). He said: “He was a good horse and it was a push-button ride, winning by five lengths. It was an important win for me, I had never won the Derby, it was my last Classic to achieve and my father was there – the day was very emotional.”

“I know what to expect now. I was extremely nervous in 2007 – with a few more years under my belt, I am a bit more relaxed. Tony McCoy must have felt it in the Grand National – you never think you are going to win the race and then, when you do, there is great relief. I will get excited on the day but that is quite normal.”

Gosden remarked: “It is about having the right horses. The worse thing for jockeys is being put on Formula 2 horses in Formula 1 races.”

“It is lovely to come here with four possible runners – two for the Derby and two for the Oaks – and let them have a nice feel of the track.”

“I didn’t have to do much arm twisting after the Dante as Golden Horn’s owner (Anthony Oppenheimer) likened the situation to a casino – he had won the money (in the Dante) and it was there on the table to supplement for the Derby.”

“I wanted William to tell me today whether Jack Hobbs handled the hill and Tattenham Corner. He was very happy and with the ground too and, with similar ground, Jack Hobbs will run in the Investec Derby. Golden Horn for me is the class horse in the race and I will be very surprised come Saturday if he does not enter the Epsom winners circle for big John Gosden.”

Dolniya has strong claims in the Coronation Cup and Steps is worth a E/W bet in the 5f Dash on Derby Day at Epsom Downs.

Yours in sport

Back Next Thursday.

Kevan Minter – The Colonel.

http://go.betfan.com/1000/315

Filed Under: Betfan, Horse Racing, Sports Tagged With: Epsom Downs, Golden Horn, Jack Hobbs, John Gosden

The Derby

June 3, 2015 By admin Leave a Comment

On paper, this looks like the strangest Derby in years. Strange because there is no Aidan O’Brien trained horse at a short price in the market. Strange because the market leader wasn’t even entered into the race until June. And yet it is not strange because this is horse racing and if it was always so straightforward, we wouldn’t love it and there would be no need for our excellent tipping services. So let’s look at the some of the main protagonists in turn, starting with the favourite, Golden Horn.

Golden Horn. Trainer: John Gosden. Supplemented for the Derby by his owner-breeder Anthony Oppenheimer, Oppenheimer says that: “If you were to build a horse for the Derby, you would build him – right height, right length, right type.” That is interesting in itself, because if you were to build a horse just like Golden Horn for the Derby, why would you not even enter him until the latest possible moment? That is because Oppenheimer acknowledges that Golden Horn might not have the stamina for the trip, but to his credit is willing to take the risk. The form is undeniable – a good win at Newmarket in April, with that form recently franked by Peacock, is coupled with an ultra-impressive performance in the Dante Stakes where he beat Jack Hobbs and Elm Park among others – and it makes Golden Horn a worthy favourite. The price, however, looks to be plenty short enough – at a general 7/4, he is only fractionally bigger than Australia was last year, and Australia was bred with the Derby in mind, which cannot be said for Golden Horn. There has also been no recent winner of the Dante Stakes who has gone on to win the Derby; last year’s winner, The Grey Gatsby, went to Chantilly instead, Libertarian finished fourth in 2013 and it was only Workforce, who was second in the 2010 Dante, that came from that race to win the Derby.

Zawraq. Trainer: Dermot Weld. Zawraq has only raced twice in his career, over 7 furlongs on yielding ground as a 2yo (beating Sir Isaac Newton) and 8 furlongs on soft/heavy ground in April (beating the strong-finishing Irish 2000 Guineas runner-up Endless Drama). Whilst winning both of those races impressively, this is one of the quirks of the market that if “D K Weld” didn’t appear next to Zawraq’s name, you can be sure his price would be a lot bigger. However, connections seem confident that the good ground and the extra distance will actually suit Zawraq, and the Smullen / Weld combination has proved exceptionally strong this season. For me, the combination of a step up in class, a step up in trip and the unknown ground make the price very short at this stage; talk of him not being sound after work this week is a worry.

Jack Hobbs. Trainer: John Gosden. On Christmas Day, to most people Jack Hobbs was either an historically-great English cricketer, or a permanently-injured Nottingham Forest centre-back. Following his maiden victory in his debut race at Wolverhampton on 27 December, where he missed the break and ran very green in the early stages before finishing like the proverbial train, and his equally impressive handicap victory at Sandown in April, the equine Jack Hobbs was fast replacing his human namesakes in the public’s consciousness. So much so, in fact, that he went off favourite for the Dante Stakes at York, ahead of Golden Horn. Whilst he was beaten by the better horse that day, there was much to like about the way Jack Hobbs finished the race, and the Dante represented a huge step-up in class for him which he handled with aplomb. He is a big-framed horse and may still be better-suited by the big races later in the season, but he is definitely still on an upward-curve and it may yet prove significant that Jack Hobbs will be running in the blue of Godolphin as he was the result of their search for this year’s Derby horse.

Elm Park. Trainer: Andrew Balding. A very strong 2yo campaign for Elm Park culminated in his excellent victory in the Racing Post Trophy, and hopes were high for this year. However, an expected appearance in the 2000 Guineas didn’t materialise due to the fast ground, and whilst he is entitled to come on for his strong third behind Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs in the Dante, the expected warm temperatures this week might not favour this colt for the Derby. However, those warm temperatures could be accompanied by thunderstorms, which would certainly play into his hands – or, rather, hooves – and so a close eye on the weather for the remainder of the week is the plan for Elm Park.

Giovanni Canaletto. Trainer: Aidan O’Brien. The money is flying in for this horse since Monday’s declaration stage and it’s easy to see why. Firstly, the absence of Gleneagles, who is heading to Royal Ascot, suggests “the lads” are happy with Giovanni Canaletto being at the head of the Ballydoyle team for this year’s Epsom renewal. He may not be the superstar colt that we all expected from the hugely disappointing John F Kennedy, or the much-vaunted Ol’ Man River, but he is a full brother to Derby winner Ruler Of The World, and there seem few doubts about his ability to stay. He is also sure to come on for his first run of the season, as all the O’Brien horses do. There remain question marks over his true ability and the time between his seasonal reappearance and the Derby, but he is certainly one to keep in mind. Perhaps the most interesting of all is that the big gamble, from 16s to 8s, happened before it was announced that Ryan Moore had chosen this as his preferred ride – was it the general market, or “the lads” making the price talk?

Hans Holbein. Trainer: Aidan O’Brien. Hans Holbein has already proved himself over the distance, winning the Chester Vase in dour style. The Chester Vase was the race Ruler Of The World won en route to his 2013 Derby success, and was also the race connections had in mind for Giovanni Canaletto before that colt’s setback in his preparation. The Derby will represent his fourth start of the season, having only raced once as a 2yo, and so there may be a question over how much improvement is left to make in such a short time. Storm The Stars was second to Hans Holbein at Chester, and he most recently won the Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood, boosting that form. Ryan Moore rode this horse at Chester, but as above, has gone for Giovanni Canaletto; Seamie Heffernan partners this colt, which is interesting – does Joseph get second choice these days or not?

Kilimanjaro. Trainer: Aidan O’Brien. It must be said that Kilimanjaro is the relative unknown of the Ballydoyle trio. What can only be described as a quite frankly woeful 2yo campaign (9th of 9 on his debut, and 6th of 16 second time out, with a maximum RPR of 67) has been replaced by a very strong start to his 3yo campaign, with the step up in distance proving to be helpful. He won at Dundalk in April and followed that up with victory in the Lingfield Derby Trial. However, odds of around 20/1, having previously been available at 66s, are probably reflective of him being a Ballydoyle colt in the Derby rather than a true indication of his chances. The “relative unknown” dimension is made all the more fun by Joseph O’Brien being declared on board – given Joseph won the Derby on both Camelot and Australia, in spite of the criticism he receives as a jockey, he knows how to win this race.

Success Days. Trainer: Ken Condon. An intriguing entry, and the inverse of the logic we discussed with Zawraq’s chances; if “K J Condon” was replaced by a Weld or an O’Brien, you can be sure this horse would be shorter in the betting. His victory in the Ballysax Stakes over Zafilani and John F Kennedy could originally be attributed, probably fairly, to superior race fitness. His slamming follow-up victory in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial could be attributed to the absence of Order Of St. George. However, both of those reasons could also be attributed to the distinct lack of hype about the horse, who was supplemented for this race at the same stage as Golden Horn. There are obvious concerns about the fact his victories – indeed, all his races – have come on no better than soft ground, but as his trainer points out, what trials in early spring in Ireland aren’t run on that type of ground?

Epicuris. Trainer: Criquette Head-Maarek. If Success Days ranks as intriguing, then Epicuris adds a whole new dimension. Firstly, we have the genius of the trainer. After nursing Treve back to health and a stunning second Arc victory last year, it was announced that Treve would be retired. Yet Sheikh Joaan Al-Thani was convinced by Criquette’s ability and passion for the horse to keep her in training. What does this have to do with the Derby? Epicuris was a brilliant unbeaten juvenile, but has shown himself to be extremely temperamental – read naughty – in his classic season. So it is deemed that Epicuris would like to have a specialist walk with him to the stalls and ease him in; France Galop won’t allow this, and therefore Epicuris is being directed to Epsom instead. There will be over 100,000 people on the Downs on Saturday. The noise and atmosphere will be immense. There are no shortcuts to the start of the Derby. All of this could make it a miserable day for Epicuris, but if he overcomes them on the day, it could make for spectacular value.

The best of the rest: Storm The Stars, as you would guess even if you hadn’t seen his breeding, is a son of Sea The Stars, and was a fine winner of the Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood. However, he has a huge turnaround in form to overcome with just Hans Holbein, let alone the rest of the field. Best Of Times finished behind Storm The Stars at Goodwood, and Jack Hobbs surely wouldn’t be running for the boys in blue if they thought he had a genuine chance. Moheet didn’t do much in the 2000 Guineas, finishing well down the field, and would have to find a lot more to produce here. Rogue Runner and Rocky Rider appear to be in the race as back up for Qatar Racing if the ground doesn’t suit Elm Park; although Rogue Runner is of interest if only because Oisin Murphy steered the 100/1 shot Red Galileo to a creditable fifth in last year’s race. And finally, Carbon Dating? No, me neither.

Regards,

Derek Potter

Filed Under: Back, Betfan, Betting Knowledge, Betting News, Betting Systems, Horse Racing, Lay, Make Money Online, Sports, Trading, WIN Tagged With: Elm Park, Golden Horn, Hans Holbein, Jack Hobbs

The Shrewd Tipster

May 19, 2015 By admin Leave a Comment

The main race and talking point of last week was the Dante Stakes at York, won impressively by Golden Horn who beat our ante post bet Jack Hobbs. The owner thought he wouldn’t stay the Epsom Derby distance so didn’t enter him and the plan was to go to the shorter French Derby. I believe with so much influence on speed in breeding now very few flat horses are actually bred to stay 1M 4F. He wasn’t stopping at the end of the Dante and will take all the beating if supplemented and runs at Epsom. I wasn’t too disappointed by Jack Hobbs as he ran green and I think would prefer a bit more juice in the ground. The only other realistic contender is the Irish horse Zawraq.

American Pharoah easily won the second leg of the American Triple Crown the Preakness Stakes, wiring in the slop. He is now odds on to complete the Triple Crown in three weeks at Belmont. No horse has managed this since Affirmed in 1977 ridden by my second fav’ jockey Steve Cauhten, my all-time fav King Richard of Hills!

Thirteen horses have won the first two legs since and all have been beaten in the Belmont, as you’ll see this gives us one of the best betting opportunities of the year, it’s very demanding to win these racing in such a short space of time and gives a fresh improver a massive chance at Belmont. It’s also the longest leg and as mentioned about horses not breed to stay the Epsom Derby distance the US are worse and this is seen as a marathon.

Last year I highlighted Tonalist at 11/1 who had won the Belmont Trail the Peter Pan stakes and 11/1 was amazing value, plus lay the fav. This year’s Peter Pan winner was not so impressive Madefromlucky and currently 22/1 he might be worth a small each way saver. I’m going for FROSTED he ran a nice race in the Kentucky Derby and has been kept fresh for this, plus will be one of the few suited by a step up in trip he’s my pick currently 6/1, get on!

Last week’s new entries to the hotlist:

LIFE LESS ORDINARY, LITTLE VOICE, RITE TO REIGN, CRYPTONYM, BESS OF HARDWICK, MURGAN, PETERHOF & MAWJOOD..

My Punt of The Day: 8:50 Chelmsford – Cerutty – Win Bet

Back next Tuesday.

Jimmy Welsh
The Shrewd Tipster
http://go.betfan.com/1000/295

Filed Under: Betfan, Horse Racing, Sports Tagged With: Epsom Derby, Jack Hobbs, Peter Pan, Triple Crown

The Dante Stakes – MC Racing

May 14, 2015 By admin 1 Comment

The Dante Stakes is a Group 2 flat horse race in Great Britain open to three-year-old horses. It is run over a distance of 1 mile, 2 furlongs and 88 yards.

The Dante Stakes is currently staged on the second day of York’s three-day Dante Festival meeting.
The event is named after Dante, the Yorkshire-trained winner of the Derby substitute at Newmarket in 1945. Established in 1958, it serves as a major trial for the Derby. The first running was won by Bald Eagle.

The present race grading system was introduced in 1971, and the Dante Stakes initially held Group 3 status. It was promoted to Group 2 level in 1980.

In total, nine winners of the race have achieved victory in the Derby. The first was St Paddy in 1960, and the most recent was Authorized in 2007. The last participant to win the Derby was Workforce, the runner-up in 2010. The 2014 Dante Stakes winner, The Grey Gatsby, subsequently won France’s equivalent of the Derby, the Prix du Jockey-Club.

I have been going through the of the stats for the race and have been looking at a some ratings to see if I could give a few pointers on what I might be putting my money on.

In the last 5 years the winner has come from a break of more than 200 days and crossed the line in front 3 times with the winner in the last 2 years having a break of less than 21 days.

In the same time period the winning horse has stepped up from 1 mile 3 times , 7 furlongs once and only once has the winning horse run over a similar distance last time out.

The winning horse has also boasted a winning strike rate of 50% or more bar last year when The Grey Gatsby only had 17%. Along with that the winner has not had more than 3 previous starts other than last year which was 6.

The trainer for this type of race at this track has had a strike rate of over 10% again in the last 2 years it has been less than that.

No trainer or jockey has dominated this race in the last 5 years but Ryan Moore has won it twice in that time.

In the last 8 years the winner has only been drawn low twice from stall 1 and 3, stall 6 three times and stall 4 twice with stall 7 once, with stall 4 and 6 the last 4 years.

Ok we only have 1 runner in this year’s field that has been off for more than 200 days and that is Elm Park, there are 3 runners, Elm Park, Ol Man River and Nafaqa all stepping up from 1 mile.

There are 5 runners, Golden Horn, Jack Hobbs, Elm Park, Ol Man River and John F Kennedy all with strike rates of 50% or more.

And with the above if you replace Elm Park with Lord Ben Stack you have the trainers with a 10% strike rate or more.

If you can put any credence on the draw then we need to be looking at stall 4 and 6, Elm Park (4) and John F Kennedy (6).

There are only 2 runners who have had 3 or fewer starts, Golden Horn (2) and Jack Hobbs (2).
John F Kennedy, Lord Ben Stack and Ol Man River have all had 4 starts, the Nafaqa (6), Elm Park (7) and Medrano (9).

So from that little lot and a couple of my ratings I think that we need to be concentrating on –

Jack Hobbs

Elm Park

John F Kennedy

I would probably stick a Dutch bet on the 3 which at the moment returns a ROI of 49%

Good luck with what you are betting on today.

Mick
MC Racing

Filed Under: Back, Betting Knowledge, Betting News, Betting Systems, Horse Racing, Make Money Online, Sports, WIN Tagged With: Dante Stakes, Elm Park, Golden Horn, Jack Hobbs

Connect With Us

Check Out Betfans Top Tipsters

Most Popular Posts

  • Dutching – Finding selections 72 views
  • 3 Tips for Dutching Horses 44 views
  • Laying Horses – Fixed Stake Or Fixed Liability? 36 views
  • Multiples Betting At BSP 36 views
  • The Ultimate Profit Club Trading Video 33 views
  • How To Win At Doubles 32 views
  • A Club to Avoid? 32 views
  • Simon Holden Racing Club – By Simon Holden 26 views
  • Dutching Your Way To More Winners By High Roller Racing 20 views
  • Who’s Archie And What Does He Do – Part Two 19 views

Recent Posts

  • Trackside In Ireland – By Declan O’Donoghue
  • Today’s Sports Betting Preview & BONUS Tips – By Rick Elliott
  • Today’s Sports Betting Preview & BONUS Tips – By Rick Elliott
  • Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott
  • Today’s Sports Betting Preview & BONUS Tips – By Rick Elliott

Recent Comments

  • reviewer on Aspire Racing Multi Syndicate/Genesis Systems
  • Reg, Humpage on Aspire Racing Multi Syndicate/Genesis Systems
  • Peter Smith on Aspire Racing Multi Syndicate/Genesis Systems
  • David on The Ultimate Profit Club Trading Video
  • Watson on Simon Holden Racing Club

Copyright © 2019 Betfan Ltd, 65 Morden Hill, Lewisham, London, SE13 7NP | Registered in England No. 07139640. VAT No. GB 997 6437 45