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The Shrewd Tipster

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After over a year of writing the Tuesday newsletter it’s time to give someone else a chance, I’m not going away and will still be tipping and blogging. I’m sure you’re fed up with me going on about over watering, terrible on course SPs etc. All of which happened again last week!

I always get asked is there anything in racing you would change and as much as I hate looking for excuses when a horse gets beat, the performance of some jockeys recently has been shocking. I believe they are riding too much, two meetings a day and up to 12 rides means they can’t be focused, I would limit them to one meeting a day. That way they can focus on track draw bias, the pace of each race, increase their knowledge of each mount, and be more alert, less stressed and perform better.

We landed a few nice free tips and ante post bets, the one that got away was Jack Hobbs at 50/1 for the Derby, I could have retired off of that.

Hopefully I’ve explained my betting methods and strategy that has in some way helped you become a better punter.

The one piece of advice I would always give is:

NEVER BET A HORSE TO DO SOMETHING IT HAS NEVER DONE BEFORE.

Nobody knows if a horse will improve, for example, stepping up in trip, wearing blinkers for the first time, running on different going, wearing a tongue strap etc. Stick to what conditions and equipment the horse has shown its best form in.

If you follow your rules you will become more disciplined, analytical, bet less and beat the SP, allowing you to make your betting on horse racing pay. You will also find you enjoy it more. I strongly recommend specialising in particular types of races as it’s very time consuming analysing each race, in fact it’s impossible to dedicate enough time to this task. I generally have about 300 bets in a calendar year, so be patient, never chase losses and don’t bet when you get an urge, your time will come.

My Punt of The Day: 5:00 Brighton – ZAEEM – Win Bet

Back next Tuesday.

Jimmy Welsh
The Shrewd Tipster
http://go.betfan.com/1000/295

The Shrewd Tipster

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Really busy week at Ascot but managed to get everything reviewed and here is my additions from the meeting to the hotlist, get them in your tracker:

ORVAR (R Hannon) strong in betting so watched it closely, had no chance from draw and way race was developed but won the race on his side.

SPECULATIVE BID (D Elsworth) you know you’re going to need luck with Spencer riding and came from too far back as usual when hampered, will win the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket on 11th of July.

ACAPULCO (W Ward) a monster of a 2yo, must feed them well in the US, the Nunthorpe at York can be won by this age group as they get a fantastic weight concession, as soon as ante post betting is opened and it’s entered I’m filling my boots!

SCOTTISH (A Balding) ran a great race on handicap debut despite been draw out in the car park, way ahead of his mark and could prove better than a handicapper in the long term.

BARTEL (E Vaughan) met trouble in running after a slow start but very promising run and well ahead of his mark.

PORTAGE (M Halford) was very strong in the betting so watched him closely met trouble in running and although finishing only 17th is miles better than that and will win nice races.

FAMOUS KID (Suroor) fancied him ante post for Chester Cup but wide draw and soft ground killed his chances, back down in trip here ran well but met trouble in running when making his move.

PROVENANCE (Stoute) found loads of trouble in running form wide draw but finished strongly, bred to improve with age and one to follow.

My Punt of The Day: 3:00 Brighton – Flying Bear – Win Bet

Back next Tuesday.

Jimmy Welsh
The Shrewd Tipster
http://go.betfan.com/1000/295

The Shrewd Tipster

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Possibly the best meeting in the world Royal Ascot starts today on good to firm ground and with little rain forecast the quickest horses should win. It’s definitely getting more overseas runners which is great, we’ll see the best horse in France SOLOW clash with the top horse in Hong Kong ABLE FRIEND and that’s the first race! The top horse in Ireland GLENEAGLES, CALIFORNIA CHROME the USA legend plus all the speedsters from Australia and it’s hard to beat. Although makes it hard to workout collateral form.

An interesting fact is foreign jockey’s poor record at the meeting. They have achieved only 8 wins from 128 rides, just 6%.
Think this might be down to the way our races are run and the pace they are ran at.

Last year on the straight track there was a massive draw bias towards high numbers, stands rail, winners coming from 25, 26, 27, 29 & 33!

 

My Punt of The Day: 5:20 Thirsk – Lord of The Rock – Win Bet

Back next Tuesday.

Jimmy Welsh
The Shrewd Tipster
http://go.betfan.com/1000/295

The Shrewd Tipster

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After analysing a race, you have made your decision, you’ll back what you think will be the winner of a race, take any price, a winner is a winner.

DON’T! Each horse’s true chance in a race cannot be scientifically verified. But you should be more disciplined, calculate a price you are prepared to take and don’t take anything less. You always hear people talking about value, but to me there is no way of calculating value. Value is a matter of personal opinion. A crude method of calculating the odds you are prepared to take, is to list all the potential rivals to your selection in the race. If there are only two look for approximately 3/1, if there are six look for 8s. You will soon develop your own method and become good at forecast odds.

I think its been proven now over a lot of the main festivals and big Saturday meetings recently that on-course punters are getting cheated by the SPs
which are much lower than the best morning prices and with Best Odds Guaranteed offers it’s madness not too get on early.

Last week’s new entries to the hotlist:

LAURENCE, IMPORTANT MESSAGE, PLANE SONG, MAGIC CIRCLE, BRAVE LEADER, FORCE & MAKE IT UP

My Punt of The Day: 3:55 Sailsbury – Maybelater – Each Way Bet

Back next Tuesday.

Jimmy Welsh
The Shrewd Tipster
http://go.betfan.com/1000/295

The Shrewd Tipster

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I am continually updating my list of horses to follow and watch replays of every race. I used to just be interested in the final two furlongs but I now know the importance of watching the whole race. Watch every section of a race and see where a horse works hardest, it might have ran too fast too soon or has been asked to make up too much ground.

Where there has been a big draw bias note horses that have not won but ran well from an impossible draw, I note these as ‘outliners’ in my list.

Look for horses that have been held up and lead close home winning by a small margin, they will only be put up a few pounds in the ratings and check it’s breeding to see if it might even improve for a step up in trip next time. My favourite bet is an improving three year old who fits this criteria.

Last week’s new entries to the hotlist:

STROKE OF MIDNIGHT, THIRD TIME LUCKY, GRAND INQUISITOR, BAQQA, DARK DEED, PUTTING GREEN, SYRDARYA, ROCKET PUNCH & RACING HISTORY.

My Punt of The Day: 2:50 Redcar – Tonto’s Spirit – Each Way Bet 8/1 (BetFred)

Back next Tuesday.

Jimmy Welsh
The Shrewd Tipster
http://go.betfan.com/1000/295

The Shrewd Tipster

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This is one of my favourite weeks of the year with a trip to York for the Dante meeting. The quality of racing and social life is second to none. Since the drainage work has been done the track is now a specialist course, some horses just don’t handle it, so before betting make sure it’s ran well there before.

Even at 2am you can get great info in York, last year myself and a leading jockey were asked to get off a certain nightclubs revolving dance floor, I had to bundle him into a taxi, he was riding a hot fav’ the next day, needless to say it didn’t win, a max lay!

Although the days of me clubbing are over I now much prefer having a clear head and nothing beats a morning jog around the knavesmire.

I’ll tweet the latest going and any good late info I get.

Particularly excited to see our 50/1 Ante Post Derby bet JACK HOBBS in the Dante itself, he’s a monster!

Last week’s new entries to the hotlist:

GOODNIGHTSUZY, INNOCENT TOUCH, BELLE D’OR, CARTMELL CLEAVE, RAW IMPULSE & FRENCH DRESSING.

Everyone was raving about Speculative Bid’s win at Ascot how much he’ll be a good thing back there for the Hunt Cup & agree he’ll have an obvious chance but anyone can spot that. I was taken with RUSSIAN REALM’s run although finishing 14th on his first start for D O’Meara & this is the one to get on for that race as soon as it’s priced up.

My Punt of The Day: 8:35 Chelmsford – Jubilee Brig – Win Bet

Back next Tuesday.

Jimmy Welsh
The Shrewd Tipster
http://go.betfan.com/1000/295

The Shrewd Tipster

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In my newsletter a few weeks ago I gave you a 50/1 ante post bet for the Derby, here’s what I wrote:

JACK HOBBS my number one horse to follow, won impressively despite running green on debut in a hot race that has seen numerous winners come from, will also improve with step up in trip and being by Halling will get better with age, what’s not to like! Only a few bookie’s have priced up the Epsom Derby he’s currently 50/1 and could be bigger when more start betting on it, defiantly worth a wee interest.

His next race was at Sandown last Friday and he bolted up by 12 lengths, hope you were all on and have a nice ante post voucher, now down to 10s! His next race will be the Dante Stakes at York in a couple weeks, one of my favourite meetings of the year and I’ll be there to cheer him on, something to really look forward to.

Talking of York I wasn’t sure if the area needed another flat track as they already have so many good ones so was interested to see what Wetherby would be like. I was delighted to pick up on a major track bias right away, you need to be low drawn and a front runner, posted this on social media after a few races and advised everyone the 4:40 trifecta, paid £213! Can’t wait for next meeting there.

Not as busy a week for talent spotting but still added a few to the hotlist:

DEERFIELD, AABIR, BAREFOOT DANCER, STRAVAGANTE, VARIABLE, MICKEY HALLER, ALFAJER & MAYBELATER.

A superb week ahead with Guineas meeting and loads of our hotlist horses entered, exciting stuff.

My Punt of The Day: 4:15 Nottingham – Steve Rogers – Win Bet

Back next Tuesday.

Jimmy Welsh
The Shrewd Tipster
http://go.betfan.com/1000/295

The Shrewd Tipster

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The highlight of last week was the All-Weather finals day at Lingfield. A superb card and a record attendance of over 9000 thousand witnessed some great racing, in fact TRYSTER put up the best performance on a synthetic surface I’ve seen in the UK.

I was asked to do a one day special and got off to a flyer with the first three winners, already had an amazing profit and had fortunes going on the last four, had a couple of Each Way places which made it 5 winning races out of 7 but was still disappointed Hidden Gold didn’t get us a winning Yankee in the last, a proven stayer, I was shocked to see him held up in last place by J Doyle, especially off such a slow place. He made up most of the ground but the winning post came too soon, he is the best horse in the race and still one to follow.

The Grand National used to be one of the easiest races of the year to predict as it had very strong trends however since the fences have been modified it’s no longer the test of jumping it once was and has now become the lottery many people used to say it was when it wasn’t. As you know I’ve backed The Druids Nephew Ante Post, disappointing jockey B Geraghty is injured as I fancied strongly but he can still go close, AP’s final ride is Shutthefrontdoor and is going to off a very short silly price however they think it’s Gold Cup horse so could be well in but won’t be carrying my money.

My Punt of The Day: 3:40 Lingfield – ORIENTAL SPLENDOUR – Win Bet

Back next Tuesday.

Jimmy Welsh
The Shrewd Tipster
http://go.betfan.com/1000/295

The Shrewd Tipster

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It’s been a very sparse week both on the quality of racing and betting opportunities however we have a cracking weekend in store with the start of the flat turf season at Doncaster, one of the fairest and best punting tracks in the country. It’s also the Dubai World Cup where there has been a massive pace favouring bias during the carnival in favour of the front runner, the dirt kick back is so severe you have no chance if not up with the pace from the start.

A few weeks ago I gave you a list of horses who would have ran over the winter on the all-weather and I believe will translate their form and superior fitness to make them excellent betting mediums in the early part of the flat turf season. This week’s list to follow have not ran over the winter but are due to be out in the early part of the turf season and all have scope for long term improvement:

CERTIFICATE – Only won once from five starts but has been well supported as homework is excellent and definitely one to keep on the right side of.

WHITE LAKE – No 2yo impressed me in the paddock as he did at York last year and duly bolted up, couldn’t believe he got beat next time but inexperienced, could still win a nice race.

HATHAL – Ran second in a very hot maiden, given no chance when too far back, a banker for an early season maiden, could even end up group class.

TIMBA – Won over a mile first timeout which indicates will have no problems staying middle distance as a 3yo so I found it surprising she was dropped in trip to 7f next time and not surprisingly got slightly out speeded definitely one to follow when upped in trip.

DISSOLUTION – Won last timeout at Goodwood but not impressively however will be well handicapped this year and step up in trip will bring out further improvement, will end the year much higher rated.

LORD OF THE ROCK – Was miles the pick of the paddock in hot maiden at Ayr was very unlucky in running and will progress in the north.

JORDAN PRINCESS – Trainer excels with these type of fillies, I know it’s a long bit away but I’ve already got her down as the winner of the Galtres stakes at Ebor meeting and can pay for the champers!

This week’s new additions to the All-Weather hotlist:

WHAT ASHAM, SPECULATIVE BID, HAPPY JACK, LIBRISA BREEZE & LADY KYLLAR.

Today I fancy a Win Bet on Thomas Blossom in the 4:35 Wolverhampton 9/4 with Ladbrokes.

Back next Tuesday ahead of the excellent All-Weather Championship finals day at Lingfield on Good Friday.

Jimmy Welsh
The Shrewd Tipster
http://go.betfan.com/1000/295

The Shrewd Tipster

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What an incredible Cheltenham it was with some of the best performance seen in years, a host of promising horses & we showed a massive profit, it doesn’t get much better!

Our first bet and my BetFan column tip The Druid’s Nephew bolted up 11s adv, he was also my ante best bet for the Grand National and if Barry Geraghty is in the saddle I can’t see him being out of the first three with a bit of luck.

As mentioned in my Cheltenham preview I was sure Arctic Fire would beat both Hurricane Fly & Jezki which he did so easily but Faugheen was just too good however 20/1 each way was a great bet.

With several more big priced winners including Coneygree we showed over 60 points profit at the festival which was great.

Here is my notebook horses from the meeting, none of the lazy obvious winners but ones who shaped well in defeat and whose turn will come soon at decent odds:

INDIAN CASTLE showed he was coming back to his best for new stable, well handicapped.

HORIZONTAL SPEED just went a shade too fast & headed close home.

BARRAKILLA finished 13th but I felt was running over a trip half a mile further than he wants, also hadn’t run since last year so was bound to fade near end, like the way he travelled for long way.

THE SAINT JAMES was left with far too much to do; you just can’t give that amount of ground to make up against this quality of opposition.

MONETAIRE was the best horse in race but given too much to do, having to weave his way through.

LE MERCUREY another who was too far back, ran on nicely.

JOLLY’S CRACKED IT raced too prominently but was going so well, might be better suited having his sights lowered to handicaps.

NO MORE HEROES whatever he achieved over hurdles was a bonus I think this could be next year’s RSA winner!

Today I fancy a win bet on Spowarticus in the 4:20 Southwell 4/1 with Bet365.

Until next Tuesday.

Jimmy Welsh
The Shrewd Tipster
http://go.betfan.com/1000/295