The St Leger is the oldest Classic in the world and the third leg of the colts and fillies triple crown. The other two races are the 1,000 Guineas and Derby for the male horses aged three and the 2,000 Guineas and Oaks for females of the same age. There is no horse running at Doncaster in the 2018 St Leger who has won one of the first two legs never mind the first two. Saxon Warrior won the Guineas in May but was a beaten favourite in the Derby so an attempt to win three Classics was abandoned.
Saxon Warrior is trained by Aidan O’Brien but he still has the possible favourite for the fifth and final Classic of the season in Kew Gardens. On Racing Post Ratings the horse has something to find with Dee Ex Bee and Lah Ti Dar but on the plus side he will be ridden by Ryan Moore. When O’Brien and Moore join forces in British and Irish Classics they have a good record but that is reflected in the odds. Kew Gardens is a false favourite on the figures so punters may have been swayed by the trainer and jockey combination which is proven at the highest level.
The St Leger is a Group race for horses aged three. Moore rode the favourite for O’Brien in 10 Group races for three-year-olds in Britain last season and had a 50% strike rate. The starting price of the winners was 6/4, 5/2, 5/6, 4/9 and 3/1. A £10 level stake bet on these horses would have returned £132.70 for a profit of £32.70 which equates to a return on investment of 32.70%. The combination won the St Leger in 2017 with a horse that was returned at 3/1. Followers of proven systems will be backing Kew Gardens to win the St Leger if the horse is the favourite.
The leading owners, jockeys and trainers date back to the 19th century. O’Brien is the winning most trainer since 2000 with five wins but all had different jockeys. Moore has only won one St Leger compared to three for Frankie Dettori but he has not won the race since 2008. William Buick and Andrea Atzeni have both won back-to-back St Legers since 2010. John Gosden won the race three times between 2007 and 2011 and he is the trainer of Lah Ti Dar. The winning riders were Buick (twice) and Jimmy Fortune but a different man is on board this time.
The Gosden filly gets a three pounds sex allowance and will be in the able hands of Dettori. Some late money could make Lah Ti Dar the favourite on the day of the race.
The trainer and jockey teamed up on favourites in five Group races for three-year-olds last season and produced the winner three times. The SP’s of these horses were 6/5, 4/7 and 4/6 so the sample of all the qualifying races produced a small profit of 2.2%. Trends followers will be hoping Kew Gardens is the favourite because following the jockey and trainer pays bigger dividends than the alternative.