My blog

Just another WordPress site

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

By Leave a Comment

It Could Be Joy For Coventry Tonight 

Coventry City supporters had not seen their team finish in the top six in any league since 1970 so it must have come as a major shock when they qualified for the League Two playoffs. Coventry and Notts County drew 1-1 in the first match so its all to play for in the second leg in Nottingham tonight. It could be the fans greatest occasion since Coventry beat Tottenham 3-2 in the FA Cup Final at Wembley in 1987. Football fans live for the odd joyous occasion and the playoff fixture could be just the second Coventry have enjoyed for almost 50 years. The club have dropped from the Premier League to the fourth tier but COVENTRY are now 5/6 with William Hill to win promotion to League One.

The Premier League season is over, it’s the FA Cup Final tomorrow (after the Royal Wedding) and Liverpool meet Real Madrid in the Champions League decider next Saturday. You can back Meghan to be wearing WHITE at 10/1 with Ladbrokes but only for a pound which you could win betting on the playoff match tonight. Coventry have only failed to score once in their last 17 matches and one goal could be enough to reach the playoff final. Away goals don’t count double so a goalless draw would take the tie to extra time. However, COVENTRY can get the job done in 90 minutes and are 17/10 with Betfair to win the match in regular time.

It’s the third and final day of the York Dante meeting and the highlight is the Yorkshire Cup. Roaring Lion won the Dante Stakes by four and a half lengths yesterday and is now as low as 7/1 to win the Derby. The race is the most significant trial for the most famous Flat race in the world and Saxon Warrior has a viable opponent but the favourite should still prevail.  Ryan Moore rides Max Dynamite for Willie Mullins in the Yorkshire Cup and that could be a tip in itself. However, the best jockey could be beaten by the most famous jockey because Frankie Dettori is on board STRADIVARIUS and the horse cannot be opposed at 10/11 with bet365.

More Group 1 Wins For O’Brien – By Ian Hudson

By Leave a Comment

It’s Irish Guineas weekend and when the Classics are taking place in the UK and Ireland one man dominates. Aidan O’Brien set a world record for most Group 1 and Grade 1 wins last season and he’s already made his mark in the Flat races that matter most in 2018. Saxon Warrior won the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas and the horse is now odds on to win the Derby and there is talk of the Triple Crown, not achieved since Nijinsky won three Classics in 1970. O’Brien saddles the favourites for the Irish 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas run over a mile at the Curragh on Saturday and Sunday.

Saxon Warrior won the English Classic mainly contested by colts aged three with something in hand. The horse was much better value for the winning distance even though the horse that finished second was not the second best horse on form and ratings. The fact that Tip Two Win Laurens finished just one and a half lengths adrift in the Guineas would put question marks against the form but Saxon Warrior ran as though longer distances would be better and the Derby is run over one mile and four furlongs. The third leg of the treble is the St Leger which is run over one mile and six furlongs at Doncaster in September.

Gustav Klimt finished in sixth place over the Rowley Mile at Newmarket, almost four lengths behind Saxon Warrior. The horse tracked the leaders but was unable to quicken and did not act on the track. The Curragh does not have the undulations and could be a better track for Gustav Klimt and you know O’Brien is not running the horse without being confident he can run well. However, the price is more based on the reputation of the trainer then proven form. With Saxon Warrior dominating the English Guineas was a truly run race and the winner ran on strongly.

Other than that horse the runner to take out of the race could be Elarqam. It was just a third career start and the horse looked very well in the paddock. Elarqam took a keen hold and could not quicken after being impeded. The horse recovered but could not run on again inside the final furlong but finished a length and a half in front of Gustav Klimt. In theory Elarqam should be the favourite for the Irish version and can confirm the form with the O’Brien horse. Masar beat Elarqam by half a length in the Guineas but made no impression on the first two at the business end of the race.

 

Clemmie was for some time the ante post favourite for the 1,000 Guineas but a minor injury ruled this O’Brien horse out of the race. Clemmie had shown better form than Happily who was the trainers man hope but the horse was found wanting on the track at Newmarket. Happily finished third in the race and was beaten by more than two lengths by the winner. Billesdon Brook was an unconsidered outsider but there are no fluke results in Classics. Soliloquy also brings Guineas form to the Curragh but Clemmie has the form to deliver another Group 1 contest for O’Brien.

O’Brien also sends over the favourite for the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury in Rhododendron. The race is run over the straight mile so there should be no hard luck stories and the best horse on the day will win. That runner should be Rhododendron who represents last year’s Classic generation and has enough to beat the older horse. Addeybb has graduated from handicaps so may be found out and Rhododendron is tipped to give O’Brien more Group 1 success.

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

By Leave a Comment

Can England Win The World Cup? 

England are playing Tunisia in their first match in the World Cup and this is an opportunity to score some goals and hit the ground running. In the past with relatively weak opponents in the first match England have stumbled to a narrow win or draw.  The tone is then set and when there are tougher matches the team fall short. The manager justifies a poor performance in the opening fixture by saying the team did not lose.

Surely, with Tunisia and Panama to deal with it’s a chance to make a statement. Score some goals, get the country behind the team and move on. Typically, the group phase is like extracting teeth and as soon as England play anyone decent it all goes wrong. There are no expectations this time and ENGLAND are 18/1 with bet365 to win the 2018 World Cup.

Thursday used to be Europa League night but the final of this year\s competition was last night when Atletico Madrid won the trophy for the third time. That leaves the FA Cup and Champions League finals before the focus turns to the World Cup. At least you can bet on the League 2 playoff semi-final second leg between Exeter and Lincoln. Exeter were unbeaten in their last 15 home matches and secured a draw in the first match. Any kind of win will see them progress to the final and EXETER are the team to back to win the match in 90 minutes at 9/5 with Coral.

The Dante Stakes at York is now established as one of the most significant trials for the Derby. An impressive winner of the race often becomes the favourite for the most prestigious Flat race in the world. That will be almost impossible this year because Saxon Warrior looks home and hosed and connections are talking about the Triple Crown. Nijinsky in 1970 was the last horse to win the Guineas, Derby and St Leger in the same season and Saxon Warrior has the attributes to emulate that horse. ROARING LION has been slightly disappointing this season but can get back into the Derby picture by winning the Dante today at 5/2 with Ladbrokes.

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

By Leave a Comment

Atletico Madrid Can Win The Europa League

This was supposed to be the night that Arsene Wenger ended his 22 year career as the manager of Arsenal by winning the Europa League but instead he bowed out at Huddersfield last Sunday. Atletico Madrid beat Arsenal in the last four and tonight in Lyon they are favourites to beat Marseille in the Europa League final. Wenger’s Arsenal never won a trophy in Europe and needed to win the Europa League to qualify for the Champions League. However, the Wenger era has ended with a sixth place finish in the Premier League and no European football next season. The former manager of Arsenal is temporarily unemployed and MIKAEL ARTETA has been backed into 1/3 with Ladbrokes to take over at the Emirates.

The players representing Atletico Madrid and Marseille in France tonight won’t be concerned how that pans out. They are meeting in the second biggest match in Europe and the winner of the trophy qualifies for the Champions League. Atletico are already in based on their position in La Liga. Marseille ironically are vying with Lyon for the third qualifying place in Ligue 1 so focusing on winning tonight’s final is the main issue and the Champions League can take care of itself. Atletico won the Europa League in 2010 and 2012 but have been losing finalists in the Champions League twice in the last four years. Marseille have defied the odds to make tonight’s final so ATLETICO MADRID are the team to back in 90 minutes at 7/10 with Betfair.

It’s the first day of the York May meeting at which the feature is tomorrow’s Dante stakes which is one of the most significant trials for the Derby. It will take an exceptional horse to usurp Saxon Warrior as the favourite for the most prestigious Flat race in the world. The winner of the Dante is often made the favourite but Saxon Warrior is an brilliant horse with the scope to win the Triple Crown. Harry Angel is the best horse running at York today but a five pounds penalty may hinder his chances in the Duke Of York Stakes at 3.30. On the pick of his best form BRANDO is a viable alternative and is on offer at 7/2 with bet365 to win at York today.

This Weeks Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

By Leave a Comment

It’s The Cup Final And Royal Wedding This Saturday

The Premier League season is now over and there were few major shocks on the last day. Liverpool secured the last place in the Champions League and Chelsea missed out. If Liverpool beat Real Madrid in this year’s final qualification won’t go down to fifth place. The only routes to the competition next season are finishing in the top four or winning the Champions League or Europa League. Marseille meet ATLETICO MADRID in the final of the latter in Lyon on Wednesday. The Spanish team are 1/3 with William Hill to lift the trophy and 4/6 with Ladbrokes to win the match in 90 minutes. The winners gain entry into the Champions League.

The biggest match in English football takes place on Saturday when Manchester United and Chelsea meet in the FA Cup Final. As President of the FA Prince William usually presents the trophy but he has a prior engagement this year. He has to attend a function at an iconic venue in the London area. There are two factions involved, everybody will drink too much and there could be a big fight at the end. That could be the Royal Wedding or the Cup Final. Whatever transpires at Windsor Csatle in the afternoon MANCHESTER UNITED are the favourites at 8/11 with Paddy Power to win the Cup. Before Saturday there are huge matches in the Championship Playoffs, Fulham at home to Derby and Middlesbrough at Aston Villa.

The Dante Stakes at York has become established as the best trial for the Derby. The winner of the race is often made the favourite for the Epsom Classic but this year that is unlikely. It will take a special performance to usurp Saxon Warrior as the favourite for the Derby. The Dante is the highlight of the three day York May meeting from Wednesday to Friday that also features the Yorkshire Cup. The Lockinge Stakes is a Group 1 race over one mile and that takes place at Newbury on Saturday and ADDEYBB is the ante post favourite at 5/1 with bet365.

In tennis the countdown continues for the second Grand Slam tournament of the season, the French Open in Paris which begins in two weeks. There are men’s and women’s clay court events in Rome and the favourite for the ATP tournament is RAFAEL NADAL at 4/9 with Coral. In golf there are tournaments in the States and Europe and the IPL continues in cricket but the biggest event is the Cup Final.

Today’s Sports Betting Preview – By Rick Elliott

By Leave a Comment

Liverpool Should Have No Problems Against Brighton

If Liverpool beat Brighton at Anfield they will finish fourth and deny Chelsea a place in the Champions League. The home team have got a much superior goal difference which is worth an extra point so a draw would suffice. Brighton have nothing on the line so its hard to see them avoiding defeat away at the Champions League finalists. Liverpool have found the net before the break in all but one of their last nine fixtures at home. The odds on a Liverpool win are short but the LIVERPOOL/LIVERPOOL double result pays 4/6 with Ladbrokes.

Chelsea must beat Newcastle away from home to take advantage of any Liverpool slip up. Despite that fact that Liverpool have the safety net of winning the Champions League and qualifying by that route they will beat Brighton. That means Chelsea’s efforts will count for nothing as they strive for three points in the north-east. Newcastle’s last seven league matches have seen the winners prevail by one goal and something similar is expected today. Chelsea could sneak a tight match so ONE-NIL to the visitors is 15/2 with William Hill.

Ireland’s main trial for the Derby takes place at Leopardstown and the leading contenders are trained by a familiar name. The betting for the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial (3.40) is dominated by horses from the Aidan O’Brien stable owned by Coolmore. The team are responsible for Saxon Warrior who is the current ante post favourite for the Derby. The three shortest priced runners in today’s prep race have these connections and its 8/1 the next best horse. On ratings NELSON is the pick of the O’Brien entries and the horse is on offer at 15/8 with Betfair.

Track Form Crucial In The 2,000 And 1,000 Guineas – By Ian Hudson

By Leave a Comment

 

The Grand National was only three weeks ago and after this weekend two of the five British Classics will have taken place. The 2,000 Guineas and 1,000 Guineas are run over the Rowley Mile at Newmarket on Saturday and Sunday and track form could be key to identifying potential winners. Masar and Soliloquy won the trials at the Craven meeting at the headquarters of the Flat and they could follow up and win two the races that matter most for horses aged three over eight furlongs.

The 2,000 Guineas is mainly for colts but fillies are also eligible but very few are entered. The 1,000 Guineas is confined to fillies and colts do not qualify for the race. These two Classics are the first leg of the respective Triple Crown. The Derby at Epsom in June and the St Leger at Doncaster in September are the other races for colts. The Oaks and St Leger complete the treble for fillies but the achievement for both genders is rare. Nijinsky (1970) and Oh So Sharp (1985) are the last male and female horses to win the Triple Crown.

A horse must be at his or her best over one mile in May, 12 furlongs in June and one mile six furlongs in September. Keeping a horse fit and in peak condition on three specific days is difficult but beating the best Flat horses aged three over three distances and a span of four months is tough and that’s why Triple Crown winners are few and far between. Saxon Warrior for the boys and I Can Fly for the girls are potentials but a lot water will flow under the bridge from now until September.

Saxon Warrior went into winter quarters as the favourite for the 2,000 Guineas after winning the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster last autumn. However, the value of the form is questionable and other horses have risen up the pecking order with impressive trials this season. Saxon Warrior is running for the first time this season at Newmarket on Saturday and there could be fitter horses in the field so the Derby could be a more realistic target. Gustav Klimt like Saxon Warrior is trained by Aidan O’Brien who has won the race seven times.

The O’Brien horses will be trained to the minute and the trainer knows what it takes to win Group 1 races for which he set a world record last season. However, Masar is preferred as the horse is proven on the straight course at Newmarket and handled the undulations in the Craven Stakes. Seven winners of the race have run in the 1,000 Guineas in the last ten years and none have won it and five have been unplaced but Masar can break that trend by winning the 2,000 Guineas.

Clemmie is another O’Brien horse and ante post favourite for the 1,000 Guineas but won’t run in the race on Sunday. The horse had the strongest juvenile form but injury prevents confirmation in the fillies’ Classic. Happily now has the best form and is the sister of Glenaagles who won the 1,000 Guineas so the pedigree is right. The horse won a Group 1 race in France last season but had no luck in running in the Breeder’s Cup. However, Soliloquy won the major trial over the course and is the filly to back in this year’s 1,000 Guineas.

Howard’s Eye-Catchers & Racing Hottie – By Howard Davis

By Leave a Comment

Well another record in the bag for Aidan O’Brien with Saxon Warrior winning the Racing Post Trophy giving him his 26th group one success of the year. You have to say Aidan is a genius however I truly believe that Roaring Lion was a very unlucky loser as he got buffeted by the strong wind and if he had delayed his challenge a little longer the Irish colt would not have been able to get back up. I actually think that Roaring Lion has strong claims for next years 2,000gns.

I was also a little gutted as I had Roaring Lion in a double with a 25/1 winner Meadowcroft Boy who I put up as a tip on both Betting Opportunity and Fold4Gold.

This brings me onto an important point as too many people keep looking for new tipsters when really they would be far better off sticking with tried and tested services who have performed well over time.

My two services are possibly the longest that have been with BetFan and both are showing profits in excess of a 1000 points each. Yes of course they have losing months but it’s only long term profits that count. It’s just a shame not enough punters realise this as all they want is immediate gratification.

Howie’s Hottie this week is Top Diktat from Gary Moores yard who runs in the 4:00 Nottingham. The old boy is not as good as he once was but he did win this race two years ago off a much higher rating.

EYE-CATCHERS

FLAT

Naadirr trainer K.Ryan – Ran well at Doncaster staying on an is on a competitive mark.

Als Memory trainer D.Evans – Another who has dropped in the weights and is in good form.

JUMPS

Meadowcroft Boy trainer A.Whillams – This the horse I tipped up at 25/1 who romped home at Kelso on Saturday. He is on a much reduced rating these days and could well go in again but you won’t get big odds next time.

Traffic Fluide trainer G.Moore – Ran well at Aintree first time out this season and will be fitter next time.

CLICK HERE For Howard’s Betting Opportunity!

Today’s Racing – By Rick Elliott

By Leave a Comment

There are 36 Group races for which only two-year-olds are eligible and the final two are taking place on Saturday. The Horris Hill Stakes at Newbury is a Group 3 contest but the Racing Post Trophy is a Group 1 race and that is significant for Aidan O’Brien. The Irish trainer needs one more win at the highest level to set a new record for Group or Grade 1 wins in a calendar years. He trains the favourite for the Doncaster race in Saxon Warrior who is also prominent in the betting for the Derby.

There are only five Group 1 races for two-year-olds and the earliest is in September. The other four are at Newmarket and O’Brien has won three of them this season. He won the British Trainer’s Championship by targeting the major races, including the Derby which he won for the sixth time with Wings Of Eagles. He has now won 29 British Classics and let’s not forget he win three Champion Hurdles with Istabraq who he often jokes is the best horse he has ever trained.

O’Brien has the huge responsibility of training the expensive horse owned by Coolmore. The partners have made a massive investment in racing and they want their return. While O’Brien is producing the goods all is well with the relationship and he must have a fortune in goodwill in the bank. The demands are relentless and already the organisation is thinking about their Classic horses for next season.

O’Brien has a very modest and humble demeanour but to be seen as one of the best trainers in the world there must be ambition and determination. He would never admit it in public but privately he must be proud of his achievements and breaking the record for winners at the highest level is one of his best. Rest assure he will be sending a strong team to Doncaster and won’t be leaving anything behind at home.

Before the final declarations O’Brien still had 12 horses entered in the Racing Post Trophy. He must have a good idea of their relative ability and it looks his main weapons at Doncaster are Saxon Farm and the Pentagon, both high in the betting for the 2018 Derby. The winner of Saturday’s race could become the strong winter favourite for the Classic that matters most.

However, O’Brien has won the Derby in the past with horses that have not run aged two and there could be the next superstar lurking in his stable who has not raced yet. We can assume Saxon Farm and the Pentagon are two of the better raced juveniles because O’Brien wants to win the Racing Post Trophy and set a new world record for Group and Grade 1 wins. Despite the odds The Pentagon could be his best chance.

Saxon Farm is a shorter price and on ratings and form is the most likely winner. However, The Pentagon has more experience and looks like the horse with most improvement to come. Ryan Moore rides Saxon Farm and Seamie Heffernan gets the mount on The Pentagon. O’Brien is odds–on to win the Racing Post Trophy and set the new mark but his second string could deliver this time. The Pentagon could become established as the best two-year-old in training in Britain and Ireland.