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Wales Are The Nap Of The Day In Euro 2020 Qualifying

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The FIFA rankings are often a reliable form guide and Wales are 10 places above Slovakia who they play at home today at the start of their Euro 2020 qualifying campaign. Wales reached the last four of the last European Championship finals and the squad is now arguably stronger but the talisman is still a more experienced Gareth Bale. Some key Slovakia players have retired from international football which means WALES are the team to back at 11/10 with bet365.

If Scotland lose in San Marino today the defeat in Kazakhstan will be forgotten for all the wrong reasons because this would be worse. San Marino are at 210 in the rankings and Scotland are 40th. The home team have avoided defeat in just five of 154 internationals and Scotland cannot be that bad. This is true mismatch and brings into disrepute the current qualifying regulations. Three points are more than essential and the DRAW/SCOTLAND half time/full time outcome is 19/5 with Coral.

Northern Ireland are 42 places above Belarus in the FIFA standings which would suggest a home win in Belfast. Three points is essential because Holland and Germany are in the same group and the top two teams qualify automatically. Belarus have avoided defeat in six of their last seven competitive fixtures and they can improve that run today. The visitors can be competitive at this level and are already assured a place in the playoffs so the DRAW is the best bet at 5/2 with bet365.

One of many Nationals in Britain and Ireland takes places at Downpatrick today 13 days before the one that matters most at Aintree. The Ulster National is a handicap chase over three miles and four and a half furlongs so it is a test of stamina which is as it should be for any National. Out Sam is the top weight with a proven record in this type of race but the burden could be excessive. TONGIE carries two stone less and will be suited by the race conditions so is the tip at 6/1 with Coral.

City And Liverpool Can Do United A Favour – By Rick Elliott

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It’s back to the proper action in the Premier League after the pointless international break and a raft of predictable World Cup qualifiers. Matters resume with Manchester United at the top of the table followed by Liverpool who play Manchester City in the first live televised match of the weekend. A draw in that fixture would suit United who can win maximum points at Stoke later in the day.

International football has been in decline since the start of the Premier League and growth in importance of the Champions league. Even the neutrals are more interested in City v Liverpool than Malta or Slovakia v England. The top division in England is the richest in the world but features the fewest players eligible for the national team than all the other main European leagues.

There is a clip on Youtube which features a debate after England failed to qualify for the 1994 World Cup. The then chairman of the FA, Graham Kelly, was pontificating about how now was the time to put a structure in place to give the national team the best circumstances in which to compete at the World Cup. He was asked about the future of the England manager, Graham Taylor, and he said:

“We must make the right decisions when we appoint the next manager of England and get the right structure.”

Jimmy Hill said the Premier League was not producing enough players who could excel for England and Terry Venables said we had the players but not the coaches!

At the National Football Museum there is a montage of England managers showing games played and matches won. No sooner had a picture of Sam Allardyce gone up when the odd jobs man had to find one of Gareth Southgate! Steve McLaren and Roy Hodgson had a good group of players to work with but were out of their depth in international football. Appointing designer managers from overseas did not work.

The FA did make two sensible appointments in Venables and Glenn Hoddle and then sacked both of them for non-footballing reasons. Over 20 years later they have gone back to the tried and failed method of appointing a civil servant as the national team coach. Gareth Southgate seems an intelligent chap but he couldn’t motivate his way out of a paper bag. But apparently though England are getting the structure in place!

The pace and dynamism of teams in the Premier League only highlights the stagnant, boring football England played against Malta and for some periods against Slovakia. It’s the very cosmopolitan nature of the league that has a negative impact on the national team because so few English players appear every week. When viewers watch the fixture between City and Liverpool they may notice the lack of English players. Liverpool are good enough to share the points at the Etihad.

In Marcus Rashford at least United have given a chance to a player who could win over 100 caps for England. He made a mistake that presented Slovakia with an early goal but then had an assist and goal to secure the points for England. Stoke could be in a bit of trouble at the wrong end of the table this season and United can win this fixture to nil with Rashford scoring at least once.

The televised matches over the rest of the weekend are about relegation issues more than potential champions and qualifying for the Champions League. Huddersfield have made a great start to their first year in the Premier League but they are still the club with least wealth in the division. Their match away to West Ham is the first fixture at the London Stadium for the hosts this season because it was being used for the World Athletics Championships in August. Huddersfield could get a reality check with a defeat in east London next Monday night.

The two Sunday fixtures bring together teams who could get embroiled in the nightmare scenario of relegation to the Championship. Burnley look more at ease than Crystal Palace under the current management and can win this home match. Newcastle visit Swansea with the club again in turmoil because it looks like Rafa Benitez was given no money to spend during the transfer window. A win for Swansea could bring things to a head and Benitez could be gone very soon. Even the England hierarchy could give the Newcastle board some pointers about dealing with managers!

England Can Cover A One Goal Handicap Against Slovakia – By Rick Elliott

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The reverse fixture between England and Slovakia will go down in history for two reasons. It was the only match in the England career of Sam Allardyce and Adam Lallana scored for his country. For different reasons neither player will be involved at Wembley tonight, Allardyce because of his stupidity and Lallana because he is injured and they won’t be missed.

England win qualifiers of this nature at home, and usually by at least one goal. The match creates a dilemma for the visitors, win the match and move to the top of the group or pick up a point and stay in charge for the race for second place. However, the betting suggests a home win which would leave England on the verge of qualifying for the World Cup Finals in Russia next year.

England best Malta away 4-0 last Friday but the fans knew the team played abysmally. Most of the most loyal supporters in the world had left the stadium before the three late goals which were scored when Malta were spent. The gloss does not hide the fact that England’s best players could not pass and run with the ball. Belgium’s 9-0 demolition of Gibraltar was an example of how to deal with minnows.

Southgate might say Malta are a better side and it was an away fixture but doing the basics right are necessary regardless of the context and England failed miserable in this fixture. Even so they should be too strong for Slovakia at the national stadium tonight in a match which has taken Coronation Street out of the schedules.

England won all 10 matches in qualifying for Euro 2016 and were then a disgrace against Iceland. They will probably go through qualifying unbeaten this time because the opposition is not from the top draw. The betting options are England to win to nil or England -1 on the handicaps and the latter is the preferred options.

 

England Can Make A Winning Start In Slovakia For Allardyce – By Ian Hudson

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England’s match with Slovakia in Euro 2016 was the fixture when things really went pear shaped as Roy Hodgson decided to make six changes to a winning team. Sam Allardyce will be hoping for a more positive experience when the new England manager takes his team to play the same nation away from home at the start of qualifying for the next World. Cup. It’s an easy group but after winning all 10 qualifiers for the Euros and stinking the place out won’t be informative.

It will be interesting to see who takes the corners for England. Joe Hart plays but it would have a tough call for Big Sam if Frazer Forster was not injured. One player that did not make the squad is Jack Wilshere who is now trying to find a holiday home in Bournemouth. Ross Barkley didn’t make the squad either and that could be a wake up call for a player that is currently not as good as the hype suggests. Hart made the squad despite his two cock-ups at the Euros and being the 12th choice keeper at Manchester City before getting a loan deal with Torino in Serie A.

After the debacle of the European Championship finals in France England are 13th in the FIFA rankings, two places below Wales. Slovakia are at 24 in the current standings so in theory with home advantage they should be competitive against England. Belgium are the best placed European team at number 2, four places above Portugal who won Euro 2016 which suggests a flaw in the process. Brazil are 9th in the standings but reached the semi-finals of their World Cup in 2014.

England drew 0-0 with Slovakia in their final group match which meant they finished second in the group and faced a potentially harder route to the final. As it transpired Iceland caused a shock and England were faced with an easy match in the round of the last 16! What followed was the most inept performance from an England team matched only by the manager who skulked off and seemed put out to face questions about the embarressment. At his Press conference Hodgson said: “I don’t know what I’m doing here”. Very apt!

England should have beaten Slovakia but we didn’t and the squad and manager faced the consequences. The whole campaign was a shambles and summed up by Wayne Rooney deciding to take the corners even though the manager had asked Harry Kane to do the job. Its common for the new boss to start with a good result so Allardyce’s England can get their World Cup campaign of to a winning start in a fixture with less than two goals and both teams not scoring.

In the meeting in France this summer England had more than 60% of the possession, produced 16 shots compared to the four from Slovakia and won 11 corners while their opponents did not have one. In every key statistical error England were the superior team but came off the pitch following a deflating draw. However, qualification was achieved in second place but scoring three goals in as many group matches hardly inspired any confidence. England were a disgrace in the defeat to Iceland.

Slovakia is a relatively new country that was formed when Czechoslovakia spilt up to form the Czech Republic and the Slovakia. It became an independent state in 1993 after the peaceful break up of Czechoslovakia. Slovakia reached the round of the last 16 at Euro 2016 and the same stage in the 2010 World Cup but have not qualified for any other tournament. Their strong defence stood firm against England but they are a counter-attacking team that lacks tactical flexibility. Sounds like England under Hodgson. Big Sam should at least bring a bit more personality to the party.

England generally cruise through the group and then make a pig’s ear of tournaments. Maybe this time (more than any other time: See 1982 England World Cup squad official song) they struggle to qualify from a poor group and then win the 2018 World Cup! In that case they would be Putin every other nation in their place but don’t hold your breath. England will win this group and maybe just once they will bring some joy to the nation by doing well in Russia.

On FIFA ratings Slovakia away is the toughest match of the qualifying campaign. Allardyce would take a draw but England can return from Central Europe with all three points after a narrow win.

Best Wishes,

Ian Hudson

Goals and Win For England v Russia in Euro 2016

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England’s chances of starting their Euro 2016 campaign with a win have increased with the absence of several key members of Russia’s side due to injury. The second fixture in Group B in Marseille at 8pm on Saturday follows Wales’ meeting with Slovakia in Bordeaux earlier that day. Team’s first matches in tournaments are often tight, cagey affairs but England have a great chance to beat Russia by more than one goal and take control of the group. The Wales battle of Britain fixture can take care of itself and England must focus on beating Russia.

Slovakia are perceived as the weakest team in the section and based on FIFA rankings and favourites to finish fourth. Rankings can be flawed in identifying current form and Slovakia are unbeaten in eight matches. England wouldn’t want to need to beat the Slovaks in the third and final group match to progress. Qualification can be put to bed with two wins and that process can begin in the meeting with Russia. England have been slow starters in tournaments and that creates pressure. Hitting the ground running by winning the first match reduces the pressure. In an ideal world Wales and Slovakia would share the points and then England beat Russia.

The second part of that scenario has been made easier because the Russian coach will be missing Alan Dzagoev and Igor Denslov in midfield, two of his regulars in qualifying. Their absence weakens the threat posed by Russia and it would be a concern for England if they created chances when under strength. With the best four placed teams progressing to the next round goal difference could be a factor so a narrow defeat would not be a disaster for Russia. The key match in the group is between Wales and Russia as the winners of that contest can grab second place., assuming England win the group for which they are favourites.

The main selection dilemma for Roy Hodgson concerns Jack Wilshere. He has played very little football this season but the speed of his passing and movement makes for a more dynamic midfield. The latest betting on players to start the match against Russia suggests nine players are set in stone and that includes Wayne Rooney. The manager won’t abandon his captain and top scorer for the biggest match for England since the World Cup in 2014. Jamie Vardy and Harry Kane should be the strikers but Rooney can drop back and be effective from midfield.

Fabio Capello was a massive managerial failure with Russia despite being the highest paid coach at the last World Cup. The federation had to stump up a fortune to get rid of him and Russia’s fans and players probably think it was money well spent. The new coach has improved morale but the loss of two influential players will have had a negative effect on confidence. Russia lack dynamism and the centre backs were past their best some time ago. England have the strikers and creative players in midfield to take advantage of these deficiencies. Dele Alli has the vision to create chances for Kane and Vardy.

Once Capello was removed from his post at the cost of some millions performances improved. Russia finished second in their group behind Austria who are quietly fancied for Euro 2016. The new man’s team won the last four matches in qualifying, scoring 12 goals and conceding one. Age is against Russia as seven of the starting line up against Portugal in a friendly in November were over 30. England have the youngest squad in the tournament with fewer players than usual carrying baggage from previous disappointments. Youthful enthusiasm can overcome experience in the match between England and Russia.

That equation will be key to how far England progress in the tournament. The side has lightening-fast speed on the counter attack and the youngsters will not be inhibited by past failures. Whether the kids can handle a tournament and huge clashes later on when it matters most is open to debate. John Stones and Chris Smalling have the potential to form a solid centre-back partnership but both are unproven at the business end of tournaments or the Champions League. Russia will not be a huge test but it will be interesting to see how the England defence copes with Gareth Bale playing for Wales.

Russia have nationalised players from Germany and Brazil to compensate for the injuries that have hit the team hard. England have just about a clean bill of health and maybe only Danny Welbeck would have played if injury had not ruled him out of the tournament. Rooney and Co should have enough to start the tournament with a win and it could be achieved by more than one goal.

Slovakia Can Afford Defeat Against Wales

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Wales have not won one of the four friendly internationals they have played since qualifying for Euro 2016. Slovakia have lost just two of their last 12 fixtures over the last 12 months and are unbeaten in eight matches. Wales are eight places above their opponents in the first match in Group B in the FIFA rankings but on current form a draw would be a good result and that is the most likely outcome of the meeting in Bordeaux on Saturday.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic destroyed Wales when helping Sweden beat them 3-0 in their last outing before the start of the Euros. Clearly that player is a world class talent but no team can rely on one individual and Sweden are below Slovakia in the FIFA standings. Wales did not have one shot on target and the introduction of Gareth Bale after 64 minutes did not change the course of the match. Sweden found the net three times from six shots on target.

The Wales manager, Chris Coleman, would say form in non-competitive matches does not concern him and the players’ focus is on Wales’ first match in a tournament since 1958. The expansion of the Euros from 16 to 24 teams has helped Wales qualify this time and with four third placed sides progressing to the knockout stages avoiding defeat against Slovakia would not be the end of the world. A win would set Wales up for the pseudo home international against England in their second fixture.

Wales and Slovakia have only met in two full internationals which produced 13 goals. They played in qualifying for Euro 2008 so the form is irrelevant. Slovakia won the first meeting in Wales 5-1 but lost the reverse fixture at home 5-2. There are no survivors from the Welsh squad for that campaign and eight years is a long time in international football. The latest world rankings suggest a close match and the recommendation is to bet on a draw and less than three goals. With some talent on the picture there should be goals so 1-1 is a potential correct score.

Wales finished second to Belgium in qualifying for Euro 2016 but beat them at home and drew in Belgium. Coleman’s side scored just 11 goals in 10 qualifiers and no team who came through a six team group to make France scored fewer. The plan was always to keep things tight and let Bale do the business. The most expensive player ever scored seven of those goals and only Aaron Ramsay scored more than once. The English based players may be distracted by playing England but Wales’ destiny will be decided by how they fare against Slovakia and Russia.

Bale is the most influential player in the squad but overall the side had poor statistics for shot ratios and defended badly at set-plays in recent friendlies. Greece showed at Euro 2004 that a well organised defence, committed midfield and the habit of taking advantage of a small number of chances can bring success. However, as potential favourites Wales must take the initiative against Slovakia who are capable of winning this fixture. If Wales lose this match even third place may be beyond them. The pressure to get something against England would then be heightened.

Slovakia started the qualifying campaign with six wins and during that run beat Spain at home. They finished second behind the winners of the last two Euros and were too good for Ukraine, Belarus, Luxembourg and Macedonia. There are some international lightweights in that group but Slovakia eventually only lost twice in qualifying over 10 matches, scoring 17 goals and conceding eight. That record was enough to earn qualification for the finals of the European Championships for the first time.

Wales and Slovakia may a similar game based on a strong defensive and midfield unit and playing on the break. Slovakia had just 45% of possession in qualifying and Wales shared the ball exactly 50/50 with their opponents. Slovakia are favourites to finish bottom of their group but that might be a wrong assessment. The meeting of two counter-attacking sides in this opening fixture will be tight so Wales should be opposed in the match result market by covering Slovakia and the draw.